realistic first marathon time-advice please!

20carrots

I'll keep it simple:
I've done 5 halfs, best time 2:33 so far, worst 2:49

I really want to do a full in VEGAS in December but cut off is 4:30

If I bust my butt/follow a serious training program for the next 8 mos, do you think I could I finish a full in four and a half hrs??

ATLMel

Probably not very likely. A marathon isn't twice as hard as a half marathon...past 20 miles it's a different animal. I had a HM PR of 2:20 and ran my first full in 5:19:24.

McMillian projects you at around 5:20 (http://www.mcmillanrunning.com/index.php/site/calculator). So unless that HM PR is reallllllllllllllly really soft, then no, 4:30 is out of your ability right now.

Personally, I'd pick a race with a very generous time limit for your first. You never really know what you'll do over 26.2 miles.

brandyk77

1) not likely at all
2) read the reviews from that race and see if you really want to do it. It was an awful disaster.

scottb81

I agree that it is unlikely. My opinion is that only way that you could possibly improve that much by December is if you started a high mileage training program today and don't get overtrained or injured before Dec. If you have never done high mileage before then that would be a very hard thing to do.

To run a full in 4.5 hrs you need to be able to to a half in around 2:05 and do the marathon training.

20carrots

1) not likely at all
2) read the reviews from that race and see if you really want to do it. It was an awful disaster.

Yes I"ve started reading up on last year and it sounds like they have learned a bit from their mistakes. I just can't believe that their cut off time is 4hrs for the HALF but 4:30 for the FULL? That has to be a typo?

ATLMel

Not a typo. They can't close the streets for longer than that.

I agree with brandy's assessment though. I have a friend who went to cheer on her sister in her first FM and said it was awful. It took hours for them to get out of Mandalay Bay.

brandyk77

1) not likely at all
2) read the reviews from that race and see if you really want to do it. It was an awful disaster.

Yes I"ve started reading up on last year and it sounds like they have learned a bit from their mistakes. I just can't believe that their cut off time is 4hrs for the HALF but 4:30 for the FULL? That has to be a typo?

it is correct. The organization of it is just stupid.

keep in mind that a lot of people were violently ill from the water stops. Sorry, for that price, I prefer not to be in GI distress due to lack of sanitation.

20carrots

Well like I said they know the screwed up and are making lots of changes, like 90 min wave times. I'm wondering if that 90 mins would also give me some wiggle room on that 4:30...

craigmdean1974

I would find a different marathon to run.

skinnyack

I think the time is unrealistic... unfortunatey- not to say you won't get there someday! From my own experience I think the first marathon should be something where you are going to be successful regardless. Even if you have that "time" in your head that you want to complete by, it's nice to know that if you cramp up, or have to use the bathroom 45 times, or are sore and want to walk a hill, that you have a good pillow of time on the other side. I was toward the latter part of the time window in my marathon and I'm glad it was more of a 'suggestion.' If a cop car had been right behind me and maintenance crews picking up cones it would'
ve lessened the experience and put a whole lot more pressure on an already stessful (physically) situation. Add that to the insane amount of hunger that no gu or beans or bars can tame- and people bound to get shot! (jk). As it was we came in smiling, happy, and feeling good at time (6 hours- we're slow)and the vendors were picking up. The half that started behind us was still trickling in too- well within their time frame. Not that I totally cared ( I wasn't buying anything) but not quite the confetti falling from the sky moment. So my advice, go find a marathon where you've got a big cushion on it and no pressure. :flowerforyou: