Plateauing/Slow weight loss

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Newbie to posting, but I've been using MFP since the beginning of the year. I've lost about 12lbs to date, but it has slowed way down in the last couple months. I think the first 9lbs were lost by March, so that gives you an idea of the slowing. I've been reading the threads on here about plateauing, eat more to weigh less, etc.

About a month ago, I started spreading out my meals a bit to try and see if smaller meals more often would help. Cut back my breakfast calories (a granola cereal - HIGH calorie) swapped it for greek yogurt with berries/granola and added a mid morning and afternoon snack. 6 weeks later, I'm still losing, but very slowly.

I know I'm going to get replies saying to read the eat more weigh less stuff - I'm at about 1210 calories/day, MFP had started me at about 1400, and I exercise 3-4x a week, usually a total of 3-4 hours.

Here's my concern about upping my calorie intake - how do I know that this is a case of needing to add more calories vs. I'm just underestimating my calorie intake and overestimating my calories burned?

eta: I'm 5'3 and currently ~138lbs

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