Looking for the MATH experts.

Koldnomore

Hey guys/gals,

I need some input. I have over 50lbs to goal so shouldn't be having a problem hitting at least 1-1.5 lb loss a week. lately its been less than .5 or nothing at all. I do NOT work out (and will not be starting) so that can be disregarded from the equation. I'm following heybales' EFFY plan - age 39. CW 194 at 5'6. TDEE between Mifflin and Katch is hugely different (1697 vs 2005) which leaves me between 1358 and 1604 on a 20% cut. Maybe some cycling or a week off? I'm not sure.

I have come up to 1800 over the past few months from 1200 but now I'm thinking given what I have to lose I could be making a more aggressive cut. I was thinking of 1700 or 1650. I walk for about 30 min a day at a good clip but I have been doing that for months so I am betting the contribution to my daily expenditure has been reduced.

I am looking for educated input from people who understand the math and have read the description of my issues. Please don't waste your time answering if you are not familiar with BMR/TDEE/IPOARM or EFFY methods. Thanks in advance.

Koldnomore

Bumping to see if anyone is around today

orapronobis

Bump

maricash

I'm a little confused by the numbers you posted -- it seems like you may be equating BMR and TDEE, though it's possible I am reading it wrong. Are you cutting from a lightly active TDEE or a sedentary TDEE? I like this TDEE calculator because you can put in your exact activities for a typical day: http://www.health-calc.com/diet/energy-expenditure-advanced

We have very similar stats. I'm 5' 6'' and around 196, though I am a couple of years older. I've been following a kind of hybrid of the IPOARM plan and the MFP plan. That is, I figured out a range of calories using IPOARM, but I vary my calories based on how much exercise I do on a given day. I am so much hungrier on exercise days, so I eat accordingly. I also have roughly one non-logging day a week, where I just eat whatever I want. It's not usually a crazy over-eating day though, more just a day when I eat out and don't worry about every tiny aspect of the meal I'm ordering.

My lightly active TDEE is 2250 and I try to average a 20% cut from that, or 1800 calories. This means I eat about 1700 on non-exercise days and around 1900 on exercise days. I have been losing around a pound a week, but the loss is definitely not linear. I usually lose nothing for two weeks and then 4-5 pounds over the next two weeks.

My weight loss has slowed down though. I started off losing closer to 1.5 a week using this same method, but then I had more to lose. I won't be surprised if it drops to .75 pounds week or even less pretty soon. I know they say a 1.5 week is normal for someone with 50 pounds to lose, but I don't think it's likely if you are using the IPOARM method.

This simulator models how weight loss slows down over time: http://bwsimulator.niddk.nih.gov/

If you put in your start weight and time frame it might give you an idea of whether the rate you are losing at now is normal.

How long have you been tracking your weight? It took me a long time (months) to really see the overall pattern in my weight loss and to see that the method actually was working. If I had just gone by one or two weeks I might have thought I wasn't losing at all.

I hope any of this helps!

Koldnomore

I'm a little confused by the numbers you posted -- it seems like you may be equating BMR and TDEE, though it's possible I am reading it wrong. Are you cutting from a lightly active TDEE or a sedentary TDEE? I like this TDEE calculator because you can put in your exact activities for a typical day: http://www.health-calc.com/diet/energy-expenditure-advanced

My lightly active TDEE is 2250 and I try to average a 20% cut from that, or 1800 calories. This means I eat about 1700 on non-exercise days and around 1900 on exercise days. I have been losing around a pound a week, but the loss is definitely not linear. I usually lose nothing for two weeks and then 4-5 pounds over the next two weeks.
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.
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This simulator models how weight loss slows down over time: http://bwsimulator.niddk.nih.gov/
If you put in your start weight and time frame it might give you an idea of whether the rate you are losing at now is normal.

How long have you been tracking your weight? It took me a long time (months) to really see the overall pattern in my weight loss and to see that the method actually was working. If I had just gone by one or two weeks I might have thought I wasn't losing at all.

I hope any of this helps!

Actually the TDEE is correct but as I mentioned, the difference between the 2 methods of calculation that is used is very different which is what I was looking for input on. My current BMR is actually around 1350 to 1575 - but again, it will depend on the method / website/ calculator.

As you exercise, and I do not - apart from a little walking (which as I said is probably no longer doing anything for me) and you are eating more then I see again that possibly I am eating too much. I have a pretty detailed spreadsheet that I use to track my activity which is showing my TDEE at my GOAL (this is the plan I follow so I do not have to change calories at all) between 1700 and 2000.

So this was the reason for my question...

I have been tracking for just over 4 months and have lost about 6.5 lbs per month on average BUT this does not give an accurate picture of my loss because as with most people I lost a big chunk at the beginning and have slowed WAY down ( I think last month was under 2 lbs). I am trying to figure out the reason for this. So my hypothesis is that my limited activity is no longer having an effect and thus my TDEE should go down so my cut will have me eating lower and not at 1800 as I originally thought. I was looking for people who are familiar with the EFFY method or similar to see if I should possibly drop, cycle for a while or take a week break to reset.

deksgrl

Did you recalculate your TDEE as sedentary? Your loss would slow down after you stopped exercising. So recalculate your TDEE and then take a 20% cut off of that.

Koldnomore

Did you recalculate your TDEE as sedentary? Your loss would slow down after you stopped exercising. So recalculate your TDEE and then take a 20% cut off of that.

Yes I know this but that is not what I asked..

I give up.

deksgrl

I don't understand the question then. I am familiar with the methods mentioned. If you are eating between BMR and TDEE then you should be losing weight. But, they are really just estimates, and your real numbers may be somewhat different. I am not sure what accounts for the large differences in the numbers as you state calculated by different methods, unless there was an error in the calculation(s).

If you are seeing small losses right now, then you are indeed eating less than your true TDEE.

3bambi3

If you know a 20% cut from your TDEE is between 1358 and 1604 calories, then why are you eating 1800?

Koldnomore

I am still 'Lightly Active' just a teeny bit less so. I never did much exercise to begin with so I am trying to resolve how much lower to go.

My BMR and TDEE are so close together that if I cut too much I risk going under - re-calculated for my current weight I have between 1450 and 1572 for BMR and TDEE between 1900 and 2054 - so even going in the middle of my TDEE puts me at 1977 and if I then do 20% from that puts me at 1582 - which is pretty well my BMR and does not seem right.

I know that I will likely have to come down, what I am trying to figure out and why I need math people is by how much, OR alternately should I give it a few more weeks at 1800 before I decide or should I try decreasing by 50 or something else.. This is what I am asking. I know "what" I just need help with the numbers.. And then also to add I did drop 1.2lbs this past week so maybe I 'am' ok and just needed a few weeks to adjust to 1800 - I went up from 1700 a couple weeks ago - but if I want to be really honest I was netting less because I was having trouble actually eating the calories.

WinnerVictorious

I am still 'Lightly Active' just a teeny bit less so. I never did much exercise to begin with so I am trying to resolve how much lower to go.

My BMR and TDEE are so close together that if I cut too much I risk going under - re-calculated for my current weight I have between 1450 and 1572 for BMR and TDEE between 1900 and 2054 - so even going in the middle of my TDEE puts me at 1977 and if I then do 20% from that puts me at 1582 - which is pretty well my BMR and does not seem right.

I know that I will likely have to come down, what I am trying to figure out and why I need math people is by how much, OR alternately should I give it a few more weeks at 1800 before I decide or should I try decreasing by 50 or something else.. This is what I am asking. I know "what" I just need help with the numbers.. And then also to add I did drop 1.2lbs this past week so maybe I 'am' ok and just needed a few weeks to adjust to 1800 - I went up from 1700 a couple weeks ago - but if I want to be really honest I was netting less because I was having trouble actually eating the calories.

forget the "lightly active" nonsense and recalculate based on TODAY'S weight at the sedentary level. deduct your deficit from that. eat that as your daily calorie intake. any little extra activity beyond sedentary that you actually have will just come as a pleasant surprise on the scale... or just eat at 1400-1500 calories for a 1lb/week loss rate (i ran the numbers for you).

also, you can't assume that the changes your body is making are ALWAYS visible on your weekly weigh-in. it doesn't work that way.

deksgrl

Well, the only other bit of info I can offer is that Haybales says that Katch Mcardle is the more accurate method, so I would use those numbers rather than Mifflin.

maricash

I'm a little confused by the numbers you posted -- it seems like you may be equating BMR and TDEE, though it's possible I am reading it wrong. Are you cutting from a lightly active TDEE or a sedentary TDEE? I like this TDEE calculator because you can put in your exact activities for a typical day: http://www.health-calc.com/diet/energy-expenditure-advanced

My lightly active TDEE is 2250 and I try to average a 20% cut from that, or 1800 calories. This means I eat about 1700 on non-exercise days and around 1900 on exercise days. I have been losing around a pound a week, but the loss is definitely not linear. I usually lose nothing for two weeks and then 4-5 pounds over the next two weeks.
.
.
.
This simulator models how weight loss slows down over time: http://bwsimulator.niddk.nih.gov/
If you put in your start weight and time frame it might give you an idea of whether the rate you are losing at now is normal.

How long have you been tracking your weight? It took me a long time (months) to really see the overall pattern in my weight loss and to see that the method actually was working. If I had just gone by one or two weeks I might have thought I wasn't losing at all.

I hope any of this helps!

Actually the TDEE is correct but as I mentioned, the difference between the 2 methods of calculation that is used is very different which is what I was looking for input on. My current BMR is actually around 1350 to 1575 - but again, it will depend on the method / website/ calculator.

As you exercise, and I do not - apart from a little walking (which as I said is probably no longer doing anything for me) and you are eating more then I see again that possibly I am eating too much. I have a pretty detailed spreadsheet that I use to track my activity which is showing my TDEE at my GOAL (this is the plan I follow so I do not have to change calories at all) between 1700 and 2000.

So this was the reason for my question...

I have been tracking for just over 4 months and have lost about 6.5 lbs per month on average BUT this does not give an accurate picture of my loss because as with most people I lost a big chunk at the beginning and have slowed WAY down ( I think last month was under 2 lbs). I am trying to figure out the reason for this. So my hypothesis is that my limited activity is no longer having an effect and thus my TDEE should go down so my cut will have me eating lower and not at 1800 as I originally thought. I was looking for people who are familiar with the EFFY method or similar to see if I should possibly drop, cycle for a while or take a week break to reset.

I almost didn't answer your question because you were so rude and defensive in your original post, so I guess I shouldn't be surprised that you are so rude and defensive in your response. Is there a group for EFFY? Maybe ask your question there. Then you can spare yourself having to read answers from the likes of me.

The fact is, your weight loss is going to slow down, there is nothing you can do about it. You can't go on losing as much as you were because your body is smaller. That is what is explained in that link I left you. The papers are by MATH experts and the simulator was developed by them. Check it out. Or don't. After all, the people who developed it probably don't meet your incredibly narrow view of who is and isn't qualified to give you advice.

You also seemed to misunderstand some of the other things I wrote, but I won't continue to waste my time by clearing them up.