5 week projection

I have been using MFP for quiet sometime and as it does monitor my food intake I can still not understand the "if you eat like this for the next 5 weeks, you would weigh...." I log everyday and my projected weight is about 15-20 pounds lighter then what I actually am. My meals are pretty identical M-F due to work schedules and my husband and my work out schedules. Why can I not reach this weight when my food calories and all my nutritional levels are either lower or even with what is suggested. ???