Profile pic: Cumulative caloric deficit and weight loss

Dom_m

The graph in my profile pic shows my weight loss in kg (blue) and cumulative caloric deficit, divided by 3500*2.2 for the number of calories in 1kg of fat. The light blue line is a linear trend of my weight loss calculated in excel.

I assume my BMR is 2300. This is obviously low, so it appears I'm losing weight in advance of obtaining a caloric deficit. If I assumed a higher BMR the red line would shift up, and we would see that it drives weight loss. This is daily tracking for just less than 4 weeks, which is why there's long steady states in weight.

I've included exercise calories in the cumulative deficit.

Some things stand out. (remember, this is daily fluctuations over 3 weeks and 5 days - not a long sample)

The linear trend weight loss is almost parallel to the cumulative deficit. If anyone things a calorie deficit doesn't cause weight loss, just look at that for a few moments and think about it.

Other things. My deficit is quite steady, but my weight fluctuates a lot. One day I lost 2kg then another 1 the next day (6.6 pounds in 2 days) but I put 2 back on and then lost another 1 before it settled down. Then a week later I put on 2kg for a day then back to the settled postion for a while before losing 3kg in a day then putting 2 back on the next day.

Obviously all this change isn't due to changes in the amount of fat in my body. It could be measurement error (I use analogue scales that are difficult to read from 6 feet away), or it could be changes in my hydration. I don't know.

There are also some stages of steady weight, but the trend is very clearly in line with the calorie deficit. I know this is a short time frame, but you can look at this if you feel like your doing the right things and the weight isn't shifting.

Hope this helps people with their motivation.

Cheers.

Mommabee

Very interesting, I've never thought of tracking my progress that way. Thanks for sharing and for the inspiration.

Dom_m

Hmm... I adjusted the red line for different assumptions about BMR and I had to assume a BMR greater than 6,500 calories / day to bring it up to the trend line. That's an obviously absurd assumption, so there must be another reason for the weight loss being ahead of the caloric deficit.

It's possibly because I was actually coming out of "starvation mode" at the beginning of this period. I'd been exercising a lot more than I currently do, and eating a lot less for about 6 months. This approach wasn't resulting in lost weight which is why I found MFP. Its possible that the sudden weight loss at the beginning of the period occurred when my body decided it wasn't going to be starved after all!

BTW - the gradient of the red line (rise / run) tells you my daily caloric deficit. The line would be steeper if I ate less or exercised more, and would be flat if I was eating TDEE. It would be downward sloping if I was eating enough to put on weight.

Dom_m

Updated this with an extra week's data - 4 weeks & 1 day. The story hasn't changed, except that my poor effort over the past 3 days is highly visible!! Damn.

I'll keep updating this each week until I reach my goal, or maybe a month after.

hroderick

What are you using to track cumulative calorie deficit Dom?