Goal Change - which is more accurate?

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When I started using MFP, I listed my weight and activity level as sedentary (desk job). My calorie goal was 1550. Since I've lost a few pounds, it changed it to 1450, but today I decided that maybe it would be better to change my activity level to light, since I use my exercise bike almost every day. Then my goal changed to 1600. What do you think is the most accurate goal? I'm wondering if I should just keep things the way they were when I started??