MORE TDEE questions, and Rate of Loss on TDEE

xLyric

How do you figure out how much you'll lose in a certain time frame when following TDEE? If it says my BMR is 1600, my TDEE is 1950 according to fitnessfrog, on "Little to no exercise". I'll be logging any actual exercise as precisely as I can with a HRM so I don't want to calculate it with it since I don't know what it will be.

Also, since I can't seem to comprehend this, I want to clarify everything for myself... again.

If I ate 1950 calories a day, since that's about my TDEE, I would maintain.
If I ate below 1600, I'm not giving my body enough food.

Are these two statements correct?

So then instead of trying to net 1200 and eat exercise calories, you're trying to net 1950 and eat exercise calories? Or 1600 + exercise?

Yes I've read the roadmap and others, please don't link them. They're great, but I need more clarification please.

xLyric

Wait. I think I understand.

BMR is ~1600
TDEE is ~1900
Lets say I plan to exercise and burn 400 calories a day
That makes my TDEE 2300
2300 x 20% would be a 460 deficit

That would be 1840 calories that I would eat? Is that right? That seems high. Did I do it or did I do something wrong?

If that's right, I would really lose weight eating 2300 calories a day (while exercising 400)? How can I figure out the rate at which the weight would come off. I know it's skewed a bit because of the muscle that will hopefully come, but even how fast or slow should I expect to see inches off? This is important because with 1200 a day it comes with the idea that you'll lose a certain amount a week, give or take. I haven't seen anything like that for this. I'm terrified I'm going to start eating all these calories and start gaining everything back.

xLyric

Any help is appreciated