Recalculating my TDEE?

a39emm

So I've read In Place of a Road Map and know my TDEE and have been eating the calories I ought to etc, but when I calculated it I put my activity level in as lightly active because I walk a fair amount and have a somewhat physically demanding job, but the past month or so I haven't made exercise a priority - big course load, full time job, exams etc. I am finished school for a few weeks as of today and I plan on amping up my activity level and turning to exercise as a priority now that I don't have grades to stress over. I plan on doing at least one level of JM's 30 Day shred about 4-6 times a week, maybe every day depending on how I feel (JM says to do it 4-5 times a week, so we'll see) as well as incorporating a morning jog into my routine 3-5 times a week, depending on my work schedule and how often I sleep in (haha)

Now I know that I have to eat back my exercise calories, but I don't have an HRM and I have read here that MFP over-estimates calories burned. TDEE less 20% has really been working for me, so I was thinking instead of entering exercise in every day and eating back the cals I would just recalculate TDEE for a different activity level and eat that. So if I was gonna do say JM 4 times a week and a 45 minute jog also 4 times a week (approx) which activity level would be best? Moderate perhaps?