Increasing calories to BMR

RAEQ127

I'm kinda freaking out over this. I had my MFP set to sedentary and to lose 1.5 lbs a week, it set my calories to 1460. I've lost okay on this, but in the past week I've seen a 4 lb gain, or a 4lb scale F up, which ever way you want to take it. Last week I went over my calories for a couple days but stayed under my TDEE. What you see is what you get with what i log on here minus water because I typically forget to put that on there. My BMR is 1880. Do I add in exercise calories or not? What to do?