You'd weigh XXX.X in 5 weeks*

It's pretty spot on for me - I make a note of it 5 weeks forward every now and again and check back in at that date - I always hit it or go under. 5 weeks is long enough to account for natural fluctuations I think.

I'm pretty bang on my numbers though, more often under than over which balances the occasional splurge. I never splurge enough to put me out of my 1000 kcal deficit. I also adjust my intake every 5 kg as prompted by MFP.

If you take note of your numbers on an abnormal day (eg. burnt 1500 kcal on a long hike and didn't eat it back) then obviously the prediction is unlikely to come true.

Never for me. I'm very accurate with my logging, yet my weight loss goes way slower than MFP says it does.

weightloss is never linear

THIS^^

Nope....not even close.

Maybe it was more accurate back when I was losing, but now that I'm maintaining more (only 4lbs to go)..... I should've been at my goal weight weeks - months ago.

A good estimate though and a good motivator to help keep you on track.

I actually record this number 5 weeks out every so often, I have been close a few times, within .2-.4 pounds. For me my cals can vary day to day, not huge but 10-15-100-200, etc., if you close it your diary and then add more food and close it out it will change that number, interesting to see how that last snack could change the outcome.

It would seem unlikely most people eat the exact same amount of calories every single day, which is why that number is more a suggestion then an absolute. I did discover, though I cannot recall if online or the app you can go back 5 weeks and close that day out again and see what it said at that time, I do this occasionally to, you know for fun.

Eta. I have my profile set to lose 1.5 pounds a week which given how much more I need/want to lose is very obtainable still while sticking to my cal goals, most days I am within 100 of that goal (up or down).

I have not hit the complete diary button for a while now because I don't want to see the number they give. I found I was getting too invested in that number and if I didn't seem to be losing at that rate it was discouraging to me. Now I just concentrate on eating at a healthy deficit, mostly healthy food and working out. If I did well that day I feel good about that. This is also about me trying to change my thinking from wanting to be thin (a particular weight) to wanting to be fit and healthy. I am losing slowly but surely and can do things physically that 9 months ago may just have killed me, lol. That is the best feeling.

Never. It makes me want to punch MFP in the face. :laugh:

Nope, and I burn less than what it says for exercises too. My BMR is also lower. Maybe for someone with normal metabolism it might work but when you've got crazy hormonal issues and thyroid issues, count on progress to be much MUCH slower. Meh, whatever, I actually see it as comforting.. it shows me how it would be if I was "normal" and that just gives me a push and shows me how much harder I have to work than a "normal" person in order to reach my goal!

As long as you stay CONSISTENT, it should be, since it's all math. Some say it's not realistic, but they probably aren't being consistent.

My first few days of seeing that I thought it was saying 200's, I realized a couple days ago it was actually giving me numbers in the 190's. That realization lead me to think that I had never even considered that I could actually get to that weight. Even though I am trying I never even considered it possible and here it is within my grasp. Awesome. Seeing those numbers does motivate me and keeps me moving forward. I don't expect it to be spot on but atleast I am thinking more long term.