How accurate are MFP weight predictions?

merissa87
merissa87 Posts: 3 Member
in Health and Weight Loss
At the end of the day when I complete my diary it always says "If everyday were like today, you'd weight *** in 5 weeks". How accurate are these predictions? I don't want to get my hopes up, can anyone who's had success with this comment? Thanks :)

Replies

  • elyelyse
    elyelyse Posts: 1,454 Member
    mostly ignore it. it's doing math that only considers your most recent logged weight, combined with your calculated deficit on that day. All these numbers are just an estimate to begin with, so it's best not to get attached to that "if every day..." number.
    So, if I have a light day, it predicts a ridiculously large loss, and if i have a day where i eat closer to maintenance, it gives me a number that feels like i'm losing at a snails pace.

    eta: weight loss slows down the closer you are to your goal weight, so, you and I, eating at the same deficit, will most likely lose at a different rate. I don't think there is any real way for MFP to account for that.
  • Ready2Rock206
    Ready2Rock206 Posts: 9,487 Member
    For me it's never even been slightly close. But if you were to eat those exact same things and exercise the exact same amount every day for 5 weeks it would probably be accurate.
  • bakergirl178
    bakergirl178 Posts: 19
    i have been using MFP for just over a year now.. i have been set at a 1 lb per week weight loss, which SHOULD translate into nearly 50 lbs lost... i've lost 8-10 (fluctuates). granted i have not strictly followed MFP guidelines, but honestly i have been an adamant tracker and i was expecting more! :(
  • elyelyse
    elyelyse Posts: 1,454 Member
    i have been using MFP for just over a year now.. i have been set at a 1 lb per week weight loss, which SHOULD translate into nearly 50 lbs lost... i've lost 8-10 (fluctuates). granted i have not strictly followed MFP guidelines, but honestly i have been an adamant tracker and i was expecting more! :(

    but tracking doesn't do anything but help you plan, and show you a record of what you've been doing... if you aren't actually sticking to the calorie goals that are set, no amount of tracking can help you.
    Also, not everyone CAN lose 1lb a week. The closer you are to a healthy weight, the slower it comes off. A 150lb woman is going to lose more slowly than a 250 lb woman, even if they stick to the exact same diet and exercise regimen.
  • yaseyuku
    yaseyuku Posts: 871 Member
    Not very. Occasionally I lose more, occasionally less.
  • melaniecheeks
    melaniecheeks Posts: 6,349 Member
    It's not a prediction - if you find it motivating as an indicator of what you MIGHT lose, then fine. If it annoys you, ignore it. I never press the "close diary" button.
  • TheRealParisLove
    TheRealParisLove Posts: 1,907 Member
    I find it motivating but not accurate. Sometimes I lose a lot faster, sometimes I gain for no apparent reason. I've been at a plateau for the better part of 6 months. I know I need to do something different, so now I'm working on a new plan for weight loss.
  • kimstwin
    kimstwin Posts: 136 Member
    It's fun to see the number, but is not a reliable predictor.
  • Booksandbeaches
    Booksandbeaches Posts: 1,791 Member
    I've been here over a year. I haven't found the weight predictions to be accurate. It's fun to see, but not something I get too concerned about.
  • kellehbeans
    kellehbeans Posts: 838 Member
    I don't even pay attention to it.
  • LadyConundra
    LadyConundra Posts: 37 Member
    I completely ignore it, because I find that it is so inaccurate for me that its funny. I never track my excercise, never have, never will, so that is off for that reason alone. I find that it actually used to discourage me until i started ignoring it. Now I just laugh and say 'whatever'. Because no day is exactly the same.
  • ngyoung
    ngyoung Posts: 311 Member
    Even though calories in can be tracked fairly close that is not so for calories out. Your metabolic system is complex and can be significantly different from one person to the next.
  • Deipneus
    Deipneus Posts: 1,861 Member
    It's a fun stat and possibly motivating but not particularly useful because there are too many variables for it to be technically true. Plus, what are the chances that "every day will be like today". I look at it, but I don't take it seriously.

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