BASIC MATH?

I've been at this a long time here at MFP, and to be honest - failing miserably at the moment. Holidays brought on depression. Lack of funds brought on some bad eating habits. Drinking too much, etc. Point is I KNOW I've gone off rails this month, but the numbers aren't making sense.

Started December at 203 pounds

1 lb = 3500 kcals

I gained 8+ lbs in DECEMBER (was previously losing about 2 lbs /mth and I weigh daily)

8 x 3500 = 28,000 kcals that I OVER-CONSUMED in 26 days in order to gain that weight.

yea yea, some might be water, so lets reduce this by 2 lbs for water.

6 x 3500 = 21,000 kcals of overconsumption

I logged approx 48,000 cals eaten in those 26 days. Let's say I underestimated by 15%
so now I'm up to 55,200 cals eaten in 26 days = 2,123/day AVG

My BMR = 1,583 (according to MFP)

If I take the over-consumed cals - eaten cals, I get my true MAINTENANCE?

total eaten - overage = maintenance
55,200 - 21,000 = 34,200

average it out and I get 1,315 /day maintenance

Wouldn't that be ridiculously low TDEE for someone my size??? (weighed 211 this morning)

I started this weight loss gig in Oct.2012 and barely hit -40 in November. Granted I don't exercise (you can beat me up about that later), but even weighing, counting and monitoring intake over that time - I struggled to lose even 1 lb.

I did good in October, but I was restricting down as low at 1200/day and avoiding all carbs. November I slacked and December I derailed completely.

It's depressing to think I have to restrict like that permanently to lose and keep it off. Gaining this much weight in 26 days tells me my metabolism is just dead and ANY indulgence will be met with heavy penalty.

I am just trying to wrap my head around the numbers. I wanted to believe my TDEE was hovering around 2000(day) but the numbers are telling me that is waaaay off base, or I wouldn't have ballooned so fast this month.

Anyone have an opinion about the above?

My stats are as follows:
Female, 49 --- 65 inches tall --- sw 240 -- cw 211 --- BF42%
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Replies

  • mammamaurer
    mammamaurer Posts: 418 Member
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    BWAHAHAHAHA!!!!! :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: So true!!!

    OP--Honestly, good luck figuring that out and finding the answer you are looking for! :smile:
  • angelamangus1
    angelamangus1 Posts: 164 Member
    Have you discussed this with your doctor? Perhaps you need to have your thyroid checked.
  • lrmall01
    lrmall01 Posts: 379 Member
    Calories in / Calories out only works to a certain degree. I'm sure someone will come along and disagree shortly but a 3500 calorie deficit (or surplus) in MFP doesn't always mean your weight moves by a pound. All of these numbers are just estimates and you'll drive yourself mad trying to nail it all down.

    If I understand your post, you lost about 40lbs - which is awesome. Just get back to eating the way you did when you lost 40lbs and you'll be fine. Forget about the 8 lbs in December.

    Good luck!
  • angelamangus1
    angelamangus1 Posts: 164 Member
    624.jpg

    LMAO...me too! :laugh:
  • rainbowbow
    rainbowbow Posts: 7,491 Member
    Has it occured to you that you may not have gained 8 pounds of pure fat?

    Although it would have taken almost a 1000 calorie surplus (from your maintenance calories) daily to achieve. That'd be impressive.
  • Maggie_Pie1
    Maggie_Pie1 Posts: 322 Member
    I've been at this a long time here at MFP, and to be honest - failing miserably at the moment. Holidays brought on depression. Lack of funds brought on some bad eating habits. Drinking too much, etc. Point is I KNOW I've gone off rails this month, but the numbers aren't making sense.

    Started December at 203 pounds

    1 lb = 3500 kcals

    I gained 8+ lbs in DECEMBER (was previously losing about 2 lbs /mth and I weigh daily)

    8 x 3500 = 28,000 kcals that I OVER-CONSUMED in 26 days in order to gain that weight.

    yea yea, some might be water, so lets reduce this by 2 lbs for water.

    6 x 3500 = 21,000 kcals of overconsumption

    I logged approx 48,000 cals eaten in those 26 days. Let's say I underestimated by 15%
    so now I'm up to 55,200 cals eaten in 26 days = 2,123/day AVG

    My BMR = 1,583 (according to MFP)

    If I take the over-consumed cals - eaten cals, I get my true MAINTENANCE?

    total eaten - overage = maintenance
    55,200 - 21,000 = 34,200

    average it out and I get 1,315 /day maintenance

    Wouldn't that be ridiculously low TDEE for someone my size??? (weighed 211 this morning)

    I started this weight loss gig in Oct.2012 and barely hit -40 in November. Granted I don't exercise (you can beat me up about that later), but even weighing, counting and monitoring intake over that time - I struggled to lose even 1 lb.

    I did good in October, but I was restricting down as low at 1200/day and avoiding all carbs. November I slacked and December I derailed completely.

    It's depressing to think I have to restrict like that permanently to lose and keep it off. Gaining this much weight in 26 days tells me my metabolism is just dead and ANY indulgence will be met with heavy penalty.

    I am just trying to wrap my head around the numbers. I wanted to believe my TDEE was hovering around 2000(day) but the numbers are telling me that is waaaay off base, or I wouldn't have ballooned so fast this month.

    Anyone have an opinion about the above?

    My stats are as follows:
    Female, 49 --- 65 inches tall --- sw 240 -- cw 211 --- BF42%

    You're trying to be exact with numbers that are anything but exact.

    First, you'd have to trust that your daily calorie expenditure is correct. It's also an estimate. Even if you wear a fitbit, or heart rate monitor, it's all estimates.

    Then, you'd have to trust that your 15% overestimating for the calories you ate is accurate. It could be way off as well, especially when holiday eating comes into play. Whatever you eat, if it wasn't made by you and measured by you, it could be even more off than 15%.

    Then, depending on what I'm eating, I could retain way more than 2 lbs of water so your estimate could be off by more than 2 lbs as well.. If I eat something heavy in carbs, I retain a lot of water.

    That's my two cents. Don't sweat it on trying to figure it all out mathematically because there are too many variables that are being estimated.
  • ktpod1
    ktpod1 Posts: 83 Member
    Oh my...I thought I was the all time over analyzer but you just beat me by a mile! We have very similar stats except I am one inch taller. I wear a fit bit that tells me I burn roughly 2100 doing daily movement. Tdee calculates a little higher but that is including workouts. Im in post menapause and find that I have to exercise more and harder to keep from gaining. The scale doesn't budge much. Yes, very frustrating. At our age, we are losing muscle. I would bet that if you start weight training (learning to increase muscle mass with progressive heavy lifting) you will notice a change. I have been guilty of being lazy lately but began weight training again yesterday and will continue. It is what worked several years ago for me and will work again. Feel free to add me as a friend. Good luck.
  • timbrom
    timbrom Posts: 303 Member
    Honestly, I'd be willing to bet a significant number of pennies that a lot more of that 8 lbs is water than you think. Like, probably almost all of it.
  • gypsyrose64
    gypsyrose64 Posts: 271 Member
    Yes, I'm a bit OCD with numbers, and I realize "some" of this is water...but I can't fit in some 16's I was wearing last month, so things are not feeling too good at the moment.

    I weigh daily, because I do realize there are fluctuations in water. I start to get nervous when the "trend" is consistently upwards and there are no down days. I had hoped to coast through the holidays in maintenance mode, and then hit it hard again in January. With that said, figuring out what "maintenance" means for me is like finding the holy grail.
  • gsgitu
    gsgitu Posts: 118 Member
    Honestly, I'd be willing to bet a significant number of pennies that a lot more of that 8 lbs is water than you think. Like, probably almost all of it.
    truth. when i was cutting some and doing fast days my weight would jump 3-6 lbs from ONE day to the next. no worries, it is good to have a diet break. of course i have no scientific evidence what so ever to back that statement up ;)
  • refinedredbird
    refinedredbird Posts: 209 Member
    Honestly, I'd be willing to bet a significant number of pennies that a lot more of that 8 lbs is water than you think. Like, probably almost all of it.

    This
  • TR0berts
    TR0berts Posts: 7,739 Member
    Honestly, I'd be willing to bet a significant number of pennies that a lot more of that 8 lbs is water than you think. Like, probably almost all of it.


    Yep. Just to relate my little story... On Christmas day, I weighed myself at 183.4 lbs. The day after? 179.0. Today, 182.6. In short, my water weight/retention has been all over the place, including a shift of 4.4 lbs in one day.
  • Well, 15% is easy to do. I was sleepy this morning and put cereal in a bowl, then started to wake up a bit and took it out and measured: it was actually 1.67 of a portion. Oops. I also just remembered I didn't log a chocolate I was fed by someone in my office yesterday. This is after doing this kind of tracking for over a year and the last 4 mo actually measuring. I commonly later remember something I forgot to add to my food list a day or so later. Who knows what I dont remember? (I dont remember it after all) So yes, 15% is easy. Just do the measuring and get stricter on logging, this reduces, but still happens unless you put in place a strict "process" of logging before or after you eat it (which I dont really feel like doing, so I will still have these "oopses" occasionally). Exercise will help you IMMENSELY in your health, and if done in moderation in your weight loss goals, just add walking 30min/day, its so easy to do, and has more impact on my weight loss than hiking 5hrs or weight lifting.
  • gypsyrose64
    gypsyrose64 Posts: 271 Member
    Well hopefully you are right about the water retention, and I'll just focus on breaking some bad habits I've incurred this month. Too many carbs, too much alcohol, and too little give-a-flip. :embarassed:
  • mccindy72
    mccindy72 Posts: 7,001 Member
    Yes, I'm a bit OCD with numbers, and I realize "some" of this is water...but I can't fit in some 16's I was wearing last month, so things are not feeling too good at the moment.

    I weigh daily, because I do realize there are fluctuations in water. I start to get nervous when the "trend" is consistently upwards and there are no down days. I had hoped to coast through the holidays in maintenance mode, and then hit it hard again in January. With that said, figuring out what "maintenance" means for me is like finding the holy grail.

    I think maintenance is trickier than losing. It's a strange mindset to go from "I have to eat less than ___ calories a day" to "I have to make sure I eat ____ calories, no more and no less". I don't know if that makes sense but it's where I struggle with maintenance.
    I also weigh daily and I've noticed I can have a five-pound fluctuation within 2 days, which I know is water weight. When that happens, sometimes it can take a week for it to disappear (hormones, I'm guessing). Also holiday treats tend to have a lot of sodium in them, which also causes water retention.

    Just remember, you can always move forward. Starting now, get back track to where you were when you were losing and keep on trucking! I have a friend who did the same thing (she gained 8 lbs over the holidays) and is feeling frustrated. She's in the same place you are, a bit angry as to how the gain was so high when she didn't feel like was overeating that much. It's starting to come off, a pound at a time. You'll do it too.

    May I also say, you have a very pretty face in your profile pic!
  • Mr_Knight
    Mr_Knight Posts: 9,534 Member
    Although it would have taken almost a 1000 calorie surplus (from your maintenance calories) daily to achieve. That'd be impressive.

    That is very easy to do.
  • __freckles__
    __freckles__ Posts: 1,238 Member
    You're obsessing too much. Kick your own *kitten* at the gym, eat right and don't sweat the small stuff.
  • Efflictim
    Efflictim Posts: 147 Member
    624.jpg

    LMAO
  • Bettyeditor
    Bettyeditor Posts: 327 Member
    Our bodies don't work like simple math. They work like BIOLOGY. There is a lot more to the weight loss puzzle than simple calories-in/calories-out. Our bodies have a weight set-point that is determined by hormones. The primary value of diet and exercise choices is how they affect our fat burning/storing hormones. What you eat is more important that how much you eat.

    I'm not a scientist or an expert, so I'm sure I'm not doing this topic justice. Smarter people have explained this much better than me (books by Jonathan Bailor, Dr. Hyman, etc.) This helps explain:
    I've been at this a long time here at MFP, and to be honest - failing miserably at the moment. Holidays brought on depression. Lack of funds brought on some bad eating habits. Drinking too much, etc. Point is I KNOW I've gone off rails this month, but the numbers aren't making sense.

    Started December at 203 pounds

    1 lb = 3500 kcals

    I gained 8+ lbs in DECEMBER (was previously losing about 2 lbs /mth and I weigh daily)

    8 x 3500 = 28,000 kcals that I OVER-CONSUMED in 26 days in order to gain that weight.

    yea yea, some might be water, so lets reduce this by 2 lbs for water.

    6 x 3500 = 21,000 kcals of overconsumption

    I logged approx 48,000 cals eaten in those 26 days. Let's say I underestimated by 15%
    so now I'm up to 55,200 cals eaten in 26 days = 2,123/day AVG

    My BMR = 1,583 (according to MFP)

    If I take the over-consumed cals - eaten cals, I get my true MAINTENANCE?

    total eaten - overage = maintenance
    55,200 - 21,000 = 34,200

    average it out and I get 1,315 /day maintenance

    Wouldn't that be ridiculously low TDEE for someone my size??? (weighed 211 this morning)

    I started this weight loss gig in Oct.2012 and barely hit -40 in November. Granted I don't exercise (you can beat me up about that later), but even weighing, counting and monitoring intake over that time - I struggled to lose even 1 lb.

    I did good in October, but I was restricting down as low at 1200/day and avoiding all carbs. November I slacked and December I derailed completely.

    It's depressing to think I have to restrict like that permanently to lose and keep it off. Gaining this much weight in 26 days tells me my metabolism is just dead and ANY indulgence will be met with heavy penalty.

    I am just trying to wrap my head around the numbers. I wanted to believe my TDEE was hovering around 2000(day) but the numbers are telling me that is waaaay off base, or I wouldn't have ballooned so fast this month.

    Anyone have an opinion about the above?

    My stats are as follows:
    Female, 49 --- 65 inches tall --- sw 240 -- cw 211 --- BF42%