How accurate have you found MFP's forecasts?

I personally have seen a lot of consistency with it. Obviously it is just a guesstimate, and how you eat before and after the day of the forecast will play a role in it as well.
But I have lost at the rate in which it has forecasted for me, so at least its working for me!

Two summers ago I lost ten pounds by following exactly what MFP told me. If you find that their forecast is not working for you, alter it a bit. Lower the calorie gain a little bit and see how your body reacts. Everyones body is different and MFP just uses the general equations to calculate caloric needs!

Hi all,

Just wondered what your experiences have been like with MFP's forecasts?

Obviously it does state actual results may vary and there is is an issue where logging is sometimes not totally accurate, but assuming the logging is precise and stick to targets (or at least average sticking to targets over a period of time) how accurate have you found MFP's forecasts to be?

I'm 4 weeks in and my net calories are about 100 calories under target/goal (on average over the 4 weeks, definitely some bad days in there but averaged out), which according to MFP should see me lose a pound per week. I'm going to weigh myself later and see what the results are. I'm expecting it to maybe be about 2.5-3 pounds rather than 4, but we'll see.

One thing you have to remember about those forecasts you get....yes they will be on target...IF...every single day is the exact same as that day. So you have to weigh the same, eat the same and exercise the exact same amount as you did as that forecast. That tool is meant to simply be a motivator, the actual results may be a great deal off.

Not accurate because I am not accurate. I lost a lot more than the projected because I didn't log things like vacuuming the whole house, taking the dog on a hike, walking in the mall frantically for two hours looking for a birthday gift in an utter panic, yard work, etc.

Again the MFP is a generalization working on the built in equation with the numbers I give it, but it can only be as good as I am.

Mine have definitely been accurate, I've been eating far too much the last few weeks and only this week got my bum into gear. It's showing realistic forecasts, nothing major or daunting.

Use them to spur you on but you know in yourself if they'll be achievable. If you're eating the same all the time or doing the same, maybe your body needs a bit of a kick into action?

I think it depends on whether you keep your settings updated. When I was eating back calories (activity = sedentary, expected workouts = 0 mins/week), if I logged 85% of whatever MFP gave me and ate only that back, the predictions were reasonably accurate.

When I switched to the TDEE-x% method a few months back (I stopped losing weight the other way - not sure why), I never updated my activity levels (just the calories). So MFP still thinks I don't workout and therefore gives me a smaller projected weight loss than I'm actually seeing. Since I'm seeing a nutritionist, I don't really care, but in my case at least I'd blame the user input before blaming the program!

Since someone else already mentioned it: be careful with heart rate monitor calories. My cardiovascular endurance sucks, so my HRM calories read really high -- I don't use those numbers at all (other than to measure progress in my cardio health). You'll need to experiment and tweak to figure out what system seems to match your body's performance the best.

Mine has been slightly hit or miss and that's fine. They're numbers - it doesn't tell you if you've hit a plateau, warn you that you're eating foods that retain fat and/or water or affect your insulin levels. It doesn't tell any woman that she's diagnosed with PCOS or thyroid issues which frustrate the heck out of a number of them when losing weight. I know for example, when I'm retaining fluids or when I need more calories because I've been working harder at whatever activity I'm doing. Get to know your body, talk to your doctor (those lab results are eye-opening), and remember that the numbers are a good guide.

I was never able to eat "like you did today" for 5 weeks.

The MFP forecast is based on a mathematical formula. 1+1 = 2. Our bodies are organic, fluid, variable...plus no one can consume and burn the exact same way every single day for 5 weeks. Like someone else said, the forecast is just meant to be a motivator.

Eerily accurate. I think I must be extremely metabolically average for my age/height/weight.