Researchers claiming it's impossible to keep weight off

If you want to learn the basics in a really approachable way, I recommend the book "The Cartoon Guide to Statistics"

Thank you! Just ordered. Currently reading Thinking Fast and Slow (Daniel Kahneman) and this will go perfectly with that.

There are some things that work well to support behavior change. Clear and instant feedback is one. I have really high hopes for apps and things like bodymedia/fitbits. Getting clear feedback on your behavior and seeing metrics on how that behavior impacts your long term goals is gold.

Readily available high calorie food just tastes good

Until they clearly define this "95%" of people, and where they got it from, I'm calling bs on this too.

But then again, A LOT of people do regain their weight after a few years That is true. But the problem with this whole article is that it simply does not offer enough solid, concrete evidence of how that works.

Can you link some of those studies?

I don't believe that every study shows abysmal failure rates, but unless you direct me towards them I won't know for sure. It's also impossible to judge the methodology used in said studies.

Doing my own search through studies - i haven't found a) the paper mentioned in this news article b) the abysmal failure rates.

You could save me a lot of time by linking the ones you mention with abysmal failure rates, thanks.

Edit:

This study classifies successful weight maintenance as one year so results aren't totally applicable to this conversation: (~20% for the record)
http://ajcn.nutrition.org/content/82/1/222S.long

BUT, I found this mention to be interesting...

Only a few studies have followed participants for longer intervals; in these studies, ≈13–20% maintain a weight loss of 5 kg or more at 5 y. In the Diabetes Prevention Program (9), ≈1000 overweight individuals with impaired glucose tolerance were randomly assigned to an intensive lifestyle intervention. The average weight loss of these participants was 7 kg (7%) at 6 mo; after 1 y, participants maintained a weight loss of ≈6 kg (6%), and, at 3 y, they maintained a weight loss of ≈4 kg (4%). At the end of the study (follow-up ranging from 1.8 to 4.6 y; mean, 2.8 y), 37% maintained a weight loss of 7% or more. Thus, although the data are limited and the definitions varied across studies, it appears that ≈20% of overweight individuals are successful weight losers.

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...Again not ten years (only 5), but I wouldn't consider those rates "abysmal".

20% is NOT abysmal and is not the 5% mentioned in the news article.

Thanks for the links though - bookmarking now!

Edit: and as many as you got

20% is NOT abysmal and is not the 5% mentioned in the news article.

Thanks for the links though - bookmarking now!

Edit: and as many as you got

But that is only for one to two years. Less than 10% maintain it for 7 years...we are rapidly approaching that 5%. The rates are extremely low. Abysmal is an opinion. This specific study found these results based on the data analyzed. Other reviews or meta-analyses may have reached different conclusions based on their search criteria.

Can you link some of those studies?

I don't believe that every study shows abysmal failure rates, but unless you direct me towards them I won't know for sure. It's also impossible to judge the methodology used in said studies.

Doing my own search through studies - i haven't found a) the paper mentioned in this news article b) the abysmal failure rates.

You could save me a lot of time by linking the ones you mention with abysmal failure rates, thanks.

I don't care enough about whether you believe me, or any study, to go through the trouble of searching for articles and studies on the topic I've come across through the years.

You can believe whatever percentages you like, whatever helps your road. Has nothing to do with me sir.

I don't care enough about whether you believe me, or any study, to go through the trouble of searching for articles and studies on the topic I've come across through the years.

You can believe whatever percentages you like, whatever helps your road. Has nothing to do with me sir.

Oh ok, thanks, now I know in the future not to try and have a discussion with you. Will save us both a lot of time.

I don't post on MFP to have a discussion specifically with you. I don't even know who the hell you are LOL. So yes, that works just fine.

Can you link some of those studies?

I don't believe that every study shows abysmal failure rates, but unless you direct me towards them I won't know for sure. It's also impossible to judge the methodology used in said studies.

Doing my own search through studies - i haven't found a) the paper mentioned in this news article b) the abysmal failure rates.

You could save me a lot of time by linking the ones you mention with abysmal failure rates, thanks.

Here's one stating only 20% can maintain a 10% weight loss for 2 years:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov.ezproxy.lib.vt.edu:8080/pubmed/22023231

Less than 10% can maintain weight loss for 7 years:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov.ezproxy.lib.vt.edu:8080/pmc/articles/PMC3139793/

Another one stating that 20% of individuals can maintain a 10% weight loss for just 1 year, and that on average 30-35% of weight is regained within the first year with an average of 1.8kg gained per year after that:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov.ezproxy.lib.vt.edu:8080/pmc/articles/PMC2676575/

I donno, how many do you want?

Particularly alarming in said studies is the definition of "success". Unfortunately a good percentage of the people who make up the "success stories" fit the following criteria:

A. People who never had much to lose in the first place.
B. People who didn't lose much, gained back some, and managed to maintain very small losses.

The numbers for people who have had substantial weight to lose, say in the 50 and up category, are worse. It's an anomaly for people like me, who've lost over a 100 lbs, to shed that much, but even more so for us to maintain it for the long term.

Anecdotal evidence doesn't even help much here. Unfortunately, in my experience, the data matches up very well with the people I've experienced in my day to day life. Most of the fat people I know have been fat for a long time. The few that have managed to lose a considerable amount eventually regained. I think I know maybe one or two people who shed weight and kept it off. My great Aunt, who passed a couple years ago, did so before I was born and stayed very skinny for the latter 30 or so years of her life, eventually passing into her 90s.

These odds don't scare me. I've been in the majority and regained a lot of weight. They simply remind me that this is a life long journey, and that I will always need to be mindful of my food and activity level if I want to avoid the nightmare that is obesity/fatness.

^^^ Congrats, outlier!!

I agree about the fuzzy definitions of success or failure. I mean if you lost 100 lbs and slowly gained back 20, is that really failure??

^^^ Congrats, outlier!!

I agree about the fuzzy definitions of success or failure. I mean if you lost 100 lbs and slowly gained back 20, is that really failure??

Most of these studies define 'success'. For instance, success could be defined as maintaining a loss of 10% of your original body weight for 2 years. If you weighed 300 lbs and lost 30 and kept it off for two years, you would be considered successful. If you lost 100 lbs--33% of your bodyweight--then gained 20, bringing you down to an 80 lb loss, you still would have lost 27% of your bodyweight and would be considered successful.

This gives me more motivation to weigh daily and never stop logging! Thanks!

Ditto :grumble:

Most of these studies define 'success'. For instance, success could be defined as maintaining a loss of 10% of your original body weight for 2 years. If you weighed 300 lbs and lost 30 and kept it off for two years, you would be considered successful.

Yes and that blows me over.

My highest weight was 320. Maintaining just a 10% loss would leave me as a "success" story at 288. Now I've lost over a 100lbs, am knocking at the door of onederland, and my ultimate goal is likely somewhere between 160-170.

When I reach that, if I was to gain back up to 288, but never go over that, I would be considered a "success" story in a study.

But I'd be anything but.

10% is commonly used because that level of weight reduction is the point at which health improvements are seen...aka lowered blood pressure, improved lipids and insulin sensitivity, etc. It doesn't sound like a lot, but losing 32 lbs of adipose tissue would have a big metabolic effect.

Definitely. I always tell people that they'd be surprised how much even a relatively small loss can do to improve your health.

Just imagining losing up to half my body weight, regaining close to 130 lbs, and still remaining a part of the rare "success stories, thus skewing that already small percentage incredibly.

It makes me wonder how many people who lost substantial weight truly managed to keep off at least 80% of their fat loss.