Data, Data, Data!

So I had been crunching data on a lazy Friday afternoon (started this post last night), and I find it very interesting. I have tracked total calorie intake and total exercise expenditure on MFP since early November of last year. I’ve done the best I can at making accurate entries both in terms of calories consumed and expended through exercise.

For a long period (Nov through late March) I was mostly cutting – attempting to lose body fat and attempting to preserve muscle mass by regularly eating at a calorie deficit and engaging in both regular progressive overload strength training and cardio. My strength training was mostly a homemade routine that was disproportionately upper body focused as I mistakenly thought I’d preserve my lower body for heavy cardio and HIIT activities (a regret, by the way). In this period there was approximately 5 – 6 weeks where I was consciously allowing myself to eat around maintenance – during the year-end holidays and for a few weeks before I moved into a bulking phase.

Using the data tracked (having moved it into an Excel spreadsheet) I was able to compare my expected and actual weight loss using 3-, 5-, and 7-day average weights (weighing just about everyday), and to therefore figure out what my approximate TDEE was. Here is the output data for that long cut:




From March of this year through early June I completed my first bulk. I went with a “dirty” bulk (significant excess calories – targeting approximately 750 extra calories per day, or an expected gain of 1.5 lbs per week), wanting to ensure I’d gain as much muscle as I was capable of, even if that meant I added more fat than I might otherwise need in order to gain the same amount of muscle. Basically, I wanted to get a sense of how quickly I could add muscle, regardless of the fat being added. Here is the output data for that bulking period:




After a long vacation where I tracked food but focused on enjoying myself (hoping to be around maintenance), and didn't do any real strength training, I started a cut phase to shed the fat I had added during my bulk. That cut is ongoing, and I am cutting very slowly in another attempt to preserve muscle mass with relatively little body fat to shed. I’ve been targeting roughly 0.5 pounds per week loss, or a deficit of approximately 250 cals per day. Here is the current state of play with my cut:




So – what did I find so interesting that I thought other MFPers and data nerds might enjoy? Recognizing that my tracking is as accurate as I could get but is still an estimate, the data show a surprisingly consistent TDEE estimate whether cutting or bulking. The data basically confirms for me that my TDEE including regular weight training but excluding any cardio exercises (since those are sporadic, inconsistent, and not present at all during my bulking phase) is roughly 2330 calories – or basically somewhere between 2300 and 2350 cals.

I can’t underestimate how important and helpful it is knowing these numbers with a degree of certainty beyond any of the various online calculators that attempt to compute a NEAT or TDEE total simply based on height, weight, rough estimates of exercise activity, etc. I know *my* numbers based on almost a year’s worth of real data (as estimated as it must necessarily be).

I strongly encourage all of you interested in getting more precise about your calorie needs, and what you need to do to lose or gain weight at a certain pace, to track, track, track, and periodically analyze, analyze, analyze. By comparing your expected losses / gains to your actual losses / gains on your actual calorie intake and expenditure, you can determine with specificity *your* calorie needs – and then it is all about setting goals and sticking to the calorie requirements to meet them. No more wondering why X is happening or why Y isn’t happening (assuming no medical issues). It is a good feeling to have the truth laid bare before you and know it’s just up to you to use it to make whatever changes you want.

Data can set you free!