Mfp predicted weightloss

I didn't track specificly based on MFP's 'if everyday were like this you'd weigh xxx pounds in 5 weeks' messages (especially since I don't bother clicking finish each day so never get those messages anyway), but I can tell you how my weight went based on my deficit and TDEE.

This is based on a time period of 31 weeks (around 8 months) losing 23lbs going from 135lbs to 112lbs at 5'4. My TDEE for that time was around 1500-1600 and I netted about 1200-1300 a day. I did eat my exercise calories back, but very rarely exercised. So my deficit was about 300 a day, though I didn't stick to it perfectly ever day. With that sort of deficit I'd expect 0.5-1lb a week loss. I go an average loss 0.7lbs a week, which is pretty much exactly what you'd expect. I'm pretty sure MFP runs on the same estimates, so I'd say it's pretty accurate.

vegannewbie101 wrote: »

@DemoraFairy‌ it estimates around a 10lb loss on 5 weeks? Do you think that's achievable?

It's achievable if you're very overweight and have over 50lbs to lose. But if your profile is correct and you have 15lbs to lose it isn't healthy. You're better off aiming for 0.5lbs per week (2.5lbs in 5 weeks).

I love that little feature. I find it highly motivational. I complete my diary everyday just so I can see it. But I've never tried writing down it's predictions on a calendar and then going back in 5 weeks to see how accurate it is. For one… bodies just don't work that smoothly. There are too many variables in scale weight. Not to mention….my weight changes every week. My calorie intake is not exactly the same every day. Both of those things would have to be the exact same every day for those 5 weeks in order for those predictions to be true. I don't understand why people don't get that. What part of "IF EVERY DAY WERE LIKE TODAY" do people not understand?

someone posted on a board the other day that they ate the exact same thing for five weeks (it was oatmeal or something). 1) they said it was horrible and they had to force themselves to eat it by the end of the 5 weeks 2) the predictions were not accurate

It will only be as accurate as you are accurate at logging and consistency. Use a food scale! And only eat back 50% of your exercise calories.

Same as @DemoraFairy I didn't track the 5 week prediction, but I did track my calorie deficit, and lost faster than I expected. I worked out 5 times per week and ate below my calories pretty much every single day, and lost 1.5 pounds every week. Sometimes I would stall for 5 days (from regular fluctuations), but at the end of the week, it would drop, because bottom line, I was in a deficit. I maintained that 6 pound a month loss for 5 months before intentionally slowing the loss during my transition to maintenance.

It can be done. It's not easy though.

For me that feature is rather like reading the horoscope every day (which I do). It's cheap entertainment

I wish they'd remove it from the app. It does more harm then good IMO. First, it's usually not accurate. Second, people might be eating what is a good amount for them, and they get nervous and reduce calories simply because this made up number 5 weeks from now isn't low enough. If MFP's predicted weight loss was correct, I'd be gaining around 1.5 lbs a week. I am gaining 0.5 (my goal). When I diet, I'd be losing about 2 lbs per 5 weeks according to MFP. I typically lose 1-2 lbs a week. If I put any faith into the prediction, which I'm sure many new users do, I'd have reduced calories WAY beyond what was necessary.

I like it for a quick cheap boost of motivation occasionally, but mostly I don't pay attention to it. I can tell you that for a medium height, obese woman like myself (about 5'5", about 220#) it underestimates weight loss. Don't know how it is for slimmer folk.