How long should I wait before cutting calories?

It has been 4 weeks since I started using a Fitbit to calculate my calories burned. In those 4 weeks, I've only lost 5lbs versus the 11lbs I should have lost based off of the Fitbit's burn calculations. I've included a spreadsheet I made of all the information, any input would be appreciated.

It's not close to the time for my period, so that's not affecting my loss. Except for a few days (you can see from the numbers), I only ate back 50% to 75% of my exercise calories earned, trying to account for overestimation. My diary is open. I weigh everything solid that I eat to the gram and measure liquids when applicable. I use USDA entries when possible, and the information on packages if something is prepackaged (while weighing them to have accurate calorie counts). On the rare occasions I eat at a restaurant, I grossly overestimate just to be sure. I have an accurate physician's scale to track my weight.

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Replies

  • WBB55
    WBB55 Posts: 4,131 Member
    edited June 2016
    Way to go with your losses so far! With your BF%, I'd guess you could tolerate a higher deficit for now. There's a good chance the FitBit is overestimating your TDEE (it does mine, too. So I've knocked down my height a few inches so it matches my results a bit better).

    Are you hungry at all? Urges to binge? If you're not feeling hunger or cravings, try not eating back any exercise. Or simply eating a flat 2000 every day for a while.

    Congratulations on taking steps towards health. Right now, the biggest mistake you can make is not sticking with it. Whether you eat 1800 or 2200 calories per day isn't really worth stressing out about at this stage of your weight loss.
  • laur357
    laur357 Posts: 896 Member
    Lots of fun data! I assume that my Fitbit gives me greater numbers of calories burned than I actually burn each day and for the most part only eat back half of my exercise calories. Maybe try taking 5-10% off of the Fitbit's daily calorie estimate for a few weeks to see if that puts you where you think you should be? Then in increments of 5% until you hit your theoretical loss (if that's the amount you're striving for)?

    Either way, you've lost 5 pounds in a month, so that's a great start!
  • daniip_la
    daniip_la Posts: 678 Member
    WBB55 wrote: »
    Way to go with your losses so far! With your BF%, I'd guess you could tolerate a higher deficit for now. There's a good chance the FitBit is overestimating your TDEE (it does mine, too. So I've knocked down my height a few inches so it matches my results a bit better).

    Are you hungry at all? Urges to binge? If you're not feeling hunger or cravings, try not eating back any exercise. Or simply eating a flat 2000 every day for a while.

    Congratulations on taking steps towards health. Right now, the biggest mistake you can make is not sticking with it. Whether you eat 1800 or 2200 calories per day isn't really worth stressing out about at this stage of your weight loss.

    I actually lowered my height by 2 inches this morning, thinking it might help. I'll lower it more if I need to.

    I don't feel deprived or anxious to binge, the only times I feel really hungry are the mornings after an activity-heavy day. I'm not having any trouble sticking with it, just slightly discouraged that my weight loss for the month was only half that it should have been with the amount of walking I've been doing.

    I can definitely handle a bigger deficit. I didn't want to risk hair loss or other problems, which is why I was trying to keep my deficit reasonable. But obviously my deficit isn't as big as I thought since the numbers don't match up.

    Thanks for your help! I'm going to adjust things accordingly.
  • daniip_la
    daniip_la Posts: 678 Member
    laur357 wrote: »
    Lots of fun data! I assume that my Fitbit gives me greater numbers of calories burned than I actually burn each day and for the most part only eat back half of my exercise calories. Maybe try taking 5-10% off of the Fitbit's daily calorie estimate for a few weeks to see if that puts you where you think you should be? Then in increments of 5% until you hit your theoretical loss (if that's the amount you're striving for)?

    Either way, you've lost 5 pounds in a month, so that's a great start!

    I'm a chemist, data and excel are life! :#

    I've been only eating between 50% to 75% of my exercise calories back, but based on the numbers with my current activity, it seems like I shouldn't eat them back at all. I'm going to adjust and see the results after another month.

    Thanks for your help!
  • WBB55
    WBB55 Posts: 4,131 Member
    daniip_la wrote: »
    WBB55 wrote: »
    Way to go with your losses so far! With your BF%, I'd guess you could tolerate a higher deficit for now. There's a good chance the FitBit is overestimating your TDEE (it does mine, too. So I've knocked down my height a few inches so it matches my results a bit better).

    Are you hungry at all? Urges to binge? If you're not feeling hunger or cravings, try not eating back any exercise. Or simply eating a flat 2000 every day for a while.

    Congratulations on taking steps towards health. Right now, the biggest mistake you can make is not sticking with it. Whether you eat 1800 or 2200 calories per day isn't really worth stressing out about at this stage of your weight loss.

    I actually lowered my height by 2 inches this morning, thinking it might help. I'll lower it more if I need to.

    I don't feel deprived or anxious to binge, the only times I feel really hungry are the mornings after an activity-heavy day. I'm not having any trouble sticking with it, just slightly discouraged that my weight loss for the month was only half that it should have been with the amount of walking I've been doing.

    I can definitely handle a bigger deficit. I didn't want to risk hair loss or other problems, which is why I was trying to keep my deficit reasonable. But obviously my deficit isn't as big as I thought since the numbers don't match up.

    Thanks for your help! I'm going to adjust things accordingly.

    Take a multivitamin (helps prevent weird micronutrient deficiencies), keep walking (keeps bones strong), lift some weights with your big muscle groups when you're able (preserve the muscle you have now), and make sure you get enough protein and fat (hunger satisfaction and hormone balance).
  • Machka9
    Machka9 Posts: 25,616 Member
    daniip_la wrote: »
    laur357 wrote: »
    Lots of fun data! I assume that my Fitbit gives me greater numbers of calories burned than I actually burn each day and for the most part only eat back half of my exercise calories. Maybe try taking 5-10% off of the Fitbit's daily calorie estimate for a few weeks to see if that puts you where you think you should be? Then in increments of 5% until you hit your theoretical loss (if that's the amount you're striving for)?

    Either way, you've lost 5 pounds in a month, so that's a great start!

    I'm a chemist, data and excel are life! :#

    I've been only eating between 50% to 75% of my exercise calories back, but based on the numbers with my current activity, it seems like I shouldn't eat them back at all. I'm going to adjust and see the results after another month.

    Thanks for your help!

    On the days when you're doing 1-2 mile walks, I wouldn't bother eating the calories back, or maybe just go for 25% or so.

    On the day when you did the 7 mile walk, that's the day I'd eat 75% of my calories back.


    I'm a cyclist, and I find that if I go for a short ride, I can eat a small amount of my calories back and feel all right. But if I go for a long ride, I need to eat more of my calories back or I am ravenous the next day.
  • catsdogsh
    catsdogsh Posts: 130 Member
    Don't eat back exercise calories usually results in more loss.
  • sllm1
    sllm1 Posts: 2,130 Member
    I was also thinking about not going over 2,000 per day to see where that takes you.
  • Mystical64
    Mystical64 Posts: 108 Member
    The information is great. Are you getting your heart rate up to a fat burn mode? I try not to eat back any of my calories. Because I feel like my fitbit is a little high when it tells me my calories burned. I mean it looks great, but doesn't help with the losing.

    Also what is the amount of calories you are trying to stay within on a daily basis? That is what I aim for.
  • sllm1
    sllm1 Posts: 2,130 Member
    The fitbit numbers seem high to me. Have you calculated your TDEE to see what numbers that gives for comparison? I use Excel to compare MFP/Fitbit with Scooby and IIFYM TDEE. I generally try to go with the average of the three.
  • Mystical64
    Mystical64 Posts: 108 Member
    I don't see where you have macro set. I would watch the carbs. I know the Knorr side dishes has an extremely high amount of carbs and more than likely sodium.
  • daniip_la
    daniip_la Posts: 678 Member
    sllm1 wrote: »
    I was also thinking about not going over 2,000 per day to see where that takes you.
    sllm1 wrote: »
    The fitbit numbers seem high to me. Have you calculated your TDEE to see what numbers that gives for comparison? I use Excel to compare MFP/Fitbit with Scooby and IIFYM TDEE. I generally try to go with the average of the three.

    I'm thinking about sticking to 2,000 a day for my active days. It seems like a good start.

    I've calculated my TDEE before, but decided to stick with MFP and Fitbit to see where it landed me.
  • daniip_la
    daniip_la Posts: 678 Member
    Mystical64 wrote: »
    The information is great. Are you getting your heart rate up to a fat burn mode? I try not to eat back any of my calories. Because I feel like my fitbit is a little high when it tells me my calories burned. I mean it looks great, but doesn't help with the losing.

    Also what is the amount of calories you are trying to stay within on a daily basis? That is what I aim for.
    Mystical64 wrote: »
    I don't see where you have macro set. I would watch the carbs. I know the Knorr side dishes has an extremely high amount of carbs and more than likely sodium.

    I'm not sure how much my heart rate it getting up to, I don't measure it. I just thought I should eat back some of the exercise calories since adding 5 or 6 miles of walking on top of (what should be) a 1,000kcal deficit seemed like a formula for problems.

    I didn't have a set calorie goal, just tried to aim for a 1,000kcal to 1,500kcal deficit.

    As far as carbs go, I don't watch them. I know that as long as I'm getting decent protein and fat, and stay within my calories, they don't matter. A few days of having a serving of Knorr rice won't hinder my weight loss. Though I do agree that the sodium could cause water retention, so I tend to drink extra water to make up for it.
  • daniip_la
    daniip_la Posts: 678 Member
    Machka9 wrote: »
    On the days when you're doing 1-2 mile walks, I wouldn't bother eating the calories back, or maybe just go for 25% or so.

    On the day when you did the 7 mile walk, that's the day I'd eat 75% of my calories back.


    I'm a cyclist, and I find that if I go for a short ride, I can eat a small amount of my calories back and feel all right. But if I go for a long ride, I need to eat more of my calories back or I am ravenous the next day.

    I generally don't eat back any calories on the days where I only walk 1 or 2 miles, I don't consider those my active days. My active days are usually at least 3.5 miles.
  • Mystical64
    Mystical64 Posts: 108 Member
    my nutritionist has me at 30% carbs 40% protein and 30% fats. I eat roughly 1400 calories a day. I make sure at least 3 to 4 days a week, my heart rate is in peak for 20 mins and fat burn for the rest of the time. I do cardio the 3 to 4 times a week for about 45 to 50 mins.

    Hope this helps so far I'm down 30 some pounds and have 7 more to go until I'm at my goal weight with 21% body fat.
  • chrisssiex23x
    chrisssiex23x Posts: 431 Member
    For me i never ate back any excerise calories. Maybe try lowering that.

    Drinking plenty water?

    Eating the right food and portions too.
  • Jacqadactle
    Jacqadactle Posts: 62 Member
    First, hooray for spreadsheets/science! :smiley: I'm a food scientist, but my degree is dietetics.

    I'd organize the spreadsheet in a week-by-week basis. That way, you can more clearly see where your deficits are lacking (ex: for me, it's on the weekends lol).

    I think the fitbit is overestimating your calories. I try not to eat back exercise calories, unless I'm really hungry (my stomach is actually growling for something). But, I do include 1 cheat meal every week, so mentally I can look forward to having whatever I want. I would try for just keeping up with 2000kcals/day, paying attention to that rather than the supposed deficit. If it works, I think you can confidently say that the deficit was overestimated.

    I know for me personally, macros make a huge difference. I lose faster when I count my carbohydrates at 40% for the day, spaced evenly over 3 meals and 2 snacks. Part of my weight gain was insulin resistance, and counting steadies my blood sugar, helping my body to utilize the carbohydrates better. Also, I FEEL so much better! And the result is that I'm more passively active throughout the day (ie I may get up out of my chair more often, or take the stairs, etc. and feel good about it, without really thinking about it).

    I looked through your diary a little bit, and my best advice is that I don't see nearly enough fruits and vegetables. try getting either a fruit or vegetable in at every meal. The micro nutrients they provide, along with the fiber, really do make a big difference.
  • daniip_la
    daniip_la Posts: 678 Member
    I know for me personally, macros make a huge difference. I lose faster when I count my carbohydrates at 40% for the day, spaced evenly over 3 meals and 2 snacks. Part of my weight gain was insulin resistance, and counting steadies my blood sugar, helping my body to utilize the carbohydrates better. Also, I FEEL so much better! And the result is that I'm more passively active throughout the day (ie I may get up out of my chair more often, or take the stairs, etc. and feel good about it, without really thinking about it).

    I've actually recently been tested for insulin resistance, as my general practitioner thought I might have it. Tests came back negative, and not watching my carbs didn't hinder my weight loss previous to getting the Fitbit, so I'm assuming they're not a problem for me. I'm pretty active throughout the day, and set aside at least two hours for dedicated walking 6 days a week.
  • daniip_la
    daniip_la Posts: 678 Member
    After general consensus, I'm going to eat no more than 2,000kcal a day. I'll report back in a few weeks and see how it affected my losses. I know my Fitbit has to be overestimating my burns, as the numbers simply don't add up.

    Thanks everyone for your help!
  • ashtree42
    ashtree42 Posts: 16 Member
    Part of the reason for the discrepancy is the over estimation of calories burned, especially from extra exercise. As you say you are eating back 50-75% of exercise calories to compensate for the over estimation. However, that isn't reflected in the theoretical deficit you are calculating. You are adjusting your 'calories eaten' input, but not your 'calories burned' input.
    Say your fitbit says you burned 500 extra calories from exercise, and you eat back 300 calories (because you know that's closer to what you really burned). That is still adding 200 calories to your calculated 'theoretical deficit' that are not in your 'true deficit'. Add each day of exercise over a month, and that would account for a few pounds of you gap between theoretical and observed weight loss.
    But really the point is to eat at a deficit to lose weight, which you are doing a great job at! Congrats on sticking with it for a month already! If you want the number to match up closer (I'm a scientist too, so I get the urge to track, plot, and understand the data) that idea of lowering your height in the fitbit so it gives calorie burns closer to the true value sounds like a good way to factor in overestimation.
  • WBB55
    WBB55 Posts: 4,131 Member
    daniip_la wrote: »
    ... no more than 2,000kcal a day....
    As you get closer and closer to your goal weight, you may have to be more accurate with your logging than you will be at first. However, I think at your height, 2000 total calories will always be a deficit. Eventually you may need to cut to 1800, but probably never lower than that.

    What's great about you eating 2000-2200 every day is your body gets used to understanding "this is what 2000 looks and feels like." Every day. And then you eat that (on average) for the rest of your life.
  • daniip_la
    daniip_la Posts: 678 Member
    ChachChi wrote: »
    Part of the reason for the discrepancy is the over estimation of calories burned, especially from extra exercise. As you say you are eating back 50-75% of exercise calories to compensate for the over estimation. However, that isn't reflected in the theoretical deficit you are calculating. You are adjusting your 'calories eaten' input, but not your 'calories burned' input.

    Say your fitbit says you burned 500 extra calories from exercise, and you eat back 300 calories (because you know that's closer to what you really burned). That is still adding 200 calories to your calculated 'theoretical deficit' that are not in your 'true deficit'. Add each day of exercise over a month, and that would account for a few pounds of you gap between theoretical and observed weight loss.

    But really the point is to eat at a deficit to lose weight, which you are doing a great job at! Congrats on sticking with it for a month already! If you want the number to match up closer (I'm a scientist too, so I get the urge to track, plot, and understand the data) that idea of lowering your height in the fitbit so it gives calorie burns closer to the true value sounds like a good way to factor in overestimation.

    I actually calculated (Fitbit - 500kcal) when messing with the numbers, while waiting for an experiment to run this morning. If I assume that Fitbit gives me 500kcal too high for my burn each day, my theoretical deficit for the month would have put me at a 6.8lb loss. Giving room for a margin of error due to me retaining water, I feel like that's decently close to my 5lb loss.

    And I calculated just for fun that if I had cut my calories to 2,000kcal a day with that -500kcal adjusted burn, I theoretically should have lost 9.5lbs in that month.

    So with cutting my calories to 2,000kcal per day, and with my height decreased to lower my calorie burn number, I'm anxious to see what my numbers look like next month. I know actual loss will never 100% match theoretical, but I'm excited to see how close I can get them.
  • PAV8888
    PAV8888 Posts: 14,254 Member
    The, so called, exercise adjustment you get between Fitbit and MFP is not an exercise adjustment. It is a whole day TDEE adjustment.

    So.... while your mileage may vary I would consider a tracker that has a 10% daily error to verging on bad. And I consider Fitbits to be fairly good :smiley:

    You are ignoring body composition changes, and possibly water retention if this amount of walking is a relatively new thing.

    Regardless of how accurately recorded, water weight changes are an order of magnitude larger than the underlying weight level change because of fat depletion or increase.

    You also do not have a good 20-30 days of uninterrupted daily weigh in data as of yet which means we do not know for sure if your starting weight was a local low or a local high.

    Since you use fitbit and can record your weight through there, I highly recommend that you go to trendweight.com and automatically connect the two accounts.

    Many women also like linking their fitbit account to weightgrapher.com too as it allows you to visually superimpose a previous (user selectable) 28 day period.

    When setting up weightgrapher and trendweight I suggest you tell them you want to maintain your weight so that they don't offer you un-needed advice about your rate of progress.

    Other than that..... you HAVE been losing.

    I think that your idea of balancing lower calories with increased activity is the best method.

    I would urge you to NOT cut your calories again so soon. At your age, height, and activity level, you should be able to lose weight fine while eating a good 2500 calories. Your TDEE values are NOT out of line for the activity you're indicating.

    And your deficit is already > 25% of your TDEE. At your current fat %, 25% is a safe deficit, reducing to 20% when you enter the mid-high overweight stage...

    If you're otherwise very sedentary you may want to continue finding ways to move more, but for now I would encourage you to tough it out and get some more data to see if you're really losing as little as you think... before dropping the calories!

    You will have plenty of time to reduce the calories as you get lighter; I see no reason to rush to achieve that :smiley:

    (all above assumes your caloric INTAKE is recorded accurately)

    You can also express the estimation error as a % of your TDEE.

    For an example of that approach see: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VDmqNpLPu7sbQSochUJNXdp2F7AN15AGgkvS3zLw1GU/edit?usp=sharing
  • daniip_la
    daniip_la Posts: 678 Member
    edited June 2016
    To everyone who helped, thank you! I have a few more weeks of data, and my losses match the math within a pound. I've included the sheets and graphs if anyone would like to see the numbers. Also not apologising for being a data nerd, spreadsheets are amazing.

    v6ib4nuqyl9c.png

    The first sheet is the last 2.5 weeks of data added to the data I posted in the first post. The totals at the bottom and calculations are for the entire period I've been tracking, which started on May 8th.

    csdzao1j06nl.png

    The second sheet is just for this month, with the totals and calculations only for that time period.

    2oemod40m2ht.png

    The graph is my trenweight.com graph since June 1st, when I started weighing daily to view fluctuations.

    I'm not finding trendweight too incredibly useful yet, as I have very few upward fluctuations. I'm sure that will change later on, though. And the spreadsheet @PAV8888 linked shows that based on trend weight change, I'm over-estimating my TDEE by 7.34% and based on scale weight change I'm under-estimating my TDEE by -9.56%. If it's truly being underestimated, that might have to do with me dropping my height from 6'0 to 5'9 in MFP and Fitbit, hoping it would make up for any overestimation of TDEE.

    Also, I'm aware that my deficits were too large for some of these days. I wasn't sure if I could trust my exercise calories that Fitbit were giving me, so I wasn't eating them back despite walking quite a bit. Now that I see that I can trust the numbers within reason, I've begun eating about 50% to 75% of them back so that I won't lose weight quite so fast.
  • PAV8888
    PAV8888 Posts: 14,254 Member
    Well, you've started the on-going process of monitoring, and you have perhaps discovered that you don't need to eat almost nothing in order to lose weight.

    Leave yourself some room to drop calories down the road :smile:

    You may also want to play with the start dates and separate out the 6ft from the 5ft 9 data as you've made a material change there; i.e you are no longer tracking the same thing.

    While at a large deficit and above the overweight range and not engaged in novel exercise (and/or not eating a lot of sodium), Trendweight will keep going down swimmingly without too many complaints, matching your scale weight more or less.

    Trending weight programs are more helpful when you start losing at a rate that is slower than your water retention cycle.

    Note that a 20% deficit when overweight (25% deficit while obese) is (at least for me) as far as I think you should be pushing things while trying to minimise lean mass losses and minimise thermogenic adaptation.

    Note too that you will NOT have a 10+:1 fat to lean mass loss ratio for ever. and if you're data friendly you may want to invest in a series of DEXA scans (which will also be motivating).

    lean mass and fat have a different caloric values and lean mass synthesis has a different value that lean mass catabolisation. I have not found exact "authoritative" agreement as to what these values should be

    Right now you are preferentially losing fat and will continue doing so for a while. When you get closer to the mid point of your overweight range this may change and things will get more complicated.

    Hopefully, by then, you will be trusting the process sufficiently that you won't be too concerned over small differences.

    As an example: some labels subtract fiber from carbs and don't list the calories. Others don't and do list the calories.... where does that discrepancy get captured?

    At 40g of fiber a day... that amounts to a good 80 cal or so of discrepancy for me... i.e. almost 66% of my effective deficit!)

    For your geeky side: http://www.myfitnesspal.com/profile/EvgeniZyntx <-- MFP data analysis spreadsheet

    And in my humble-brag thread, I also have a link to another tool to extract your caloric data from MFP for up to a year (which you don't need since you do it manually every day :smiley:

    (link to thread): http://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/10415832/i-need-to-lose-weight-1200-cal-1500-cal-or-2775-cal-50-carbs-and-165g-sugar#1