The Ecological Fallacy
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zamphir66
Posts: 582 Member
So I was having an intellectual discussion with my data scientist friend this past Friday, and he brought up something really interesting. It's called the ecological fallacy. Basically, what it means is you generally can't make conclusions about individuals based on group data.
How might this apply to weight loss? Well, we often hear the statement that the vast majority of diets (let's say 90%) fail and people gain as much or more weight back. This leads people to conclude they have only a 10% chance of success.
Even assuming the original data on the high failure rate of diets is accurate -- which is debatable -- it tells you zero about how an individual will fare in changing their way of eating.
Ultimately, it's the individual that matters. You have the power to sustain your success, if you put your mind to it. When you go back to your original way of eating, however, the outcome is inevitable. In that case, it's not the diet that failed.
That's why Lifestyle Change is a preferred term in these parts.
*puts on tinfoil hat: The diet-industrial complex wants you to fail. If they sold anything that actually worked, they'd be putting themselves out of business. That's why people emphasize that you don't need to spend $$ on this. Because pretty much anyone taking your $$ will not have your best interests at heart.
How might this apply to weight loss? Well, we often hear the statement that the vast majority of diets (let's say 90%) fail and people gain as much or more weight back. This leads people to conclude they have only a 10% chance of success.
Even assuming the original data on the high failure rate of diets is accurate -- which is debatable -- it tells you zero about how an individual will fare in changing their way of eating.
Ultimately, it's the individual that matters. You have the power to sustain your success, if you put your mind to it. When you go back to your original way of eating, however, the outcome is inevitable. In that case, it's not the diet that failed.
That's why Lifestyle Change is a preferred term in these parts.
*puts on tinfoil hat: The diet-industrial complex wants you to fail. If they sold anything that actually worked, they'd be putting themselves out of business. That's why people emphasize that you don't need to spend $$ on this. Because pretty much anyone taking your $$ will not have your best interests at heart.
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Totally agree the normal "system" is set up for failure. How else would they make their millions?0
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Hearing or reading something that concludes that a person has 10% chance of sucess is just negative noise, forget the data, forget all these fancy terms, and no matter what you want to call it, it is all behavior based. I personally hate the term "life style change"..
http://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/comment/37289671#Comment_372896710 -
I too feel intellectual at times but my friends all have mundane professions.0
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makes sense to me...I haven't failed...lots of people I know haven't failed so does that mean I only know the 10%? doubtful.0
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So the prison population is a good one for this. They have consistent controlled eating times and portions. Now other individuals can also buy commissary, but the overweight population (amongst men anyway) is quite low. And this is eating food of very low quality 3 times a day. Stay there long enough and it can become a habitual way of eating.
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Been in fitness for 30 years and have studied kinesiology and nutrition
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I personally hate the term "life style change"..
http://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/comment/37289671#Comment_37289671
My journey might be different that yours. To reach the point I've reached has required some profound changes in my relationships to food, to my body, and to my self. Even if I choose not to call it a "lifestyle change," for me I think that's objectively what it is. The zamphir66 of a year ago and the zamphir66 of today are quite different people. A list of the changes would be quite long.
How you or I subjectively label that kind of change seems like semantics to me. I.E., why do you like "change of habits" better than "lifestyle change", over and above just a personal feeling? Isn't a lifestyle just a collection of habits?
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On a personal level I dislike the term 'lifestyle change'. I love my lifestyle so my goal was to lose weight with as little change to lifestyle as possible.1
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The data is all aggregated, and so while we can get small studies that show us more about what makes certain people successful, and the NWCR shows us data on the behaviors of successful people - there is a lot to be said about the geographic region, socioeconomic status, race, ACE score, etc. etc, that all can tie into how successful or unsuccessful a person is at reducing their mass. Anyone who is diligent about using this app for months and years on end is a very particular type of person, and many may share other demographic characteristics0
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Need2Exerc1se wrote: »On a personal level I dislike the term 'lifestyle change'. I love my lifestyle so my goal was to lose weight with as little change to lifestyle as possible.
See, my lifestyle consisted of smoking, abusing alcohol, not leaving the house, playing video games when I should be working, eating poorly, sleeping poorly, hating myself, resenting others, dwelling on the past and fearing the future, and on and on...
I had to change ALL of that, and I'm not done by any means. It wouldn't make sense to change my way of eating but ignore all of those other things. I don't think it could even work. That's why, for me, this is a lifestyle change.
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I personally hate the term "life style change"..
http://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/comment/37289671#Comment_37289671
My journey might be different that yours. To reach the point I've reached has required some profound changes in my relationships to food, to my body, and to my self. Even if I choose not to call it a "lifestyle change," for me I think that's objectively what it is. The zamphir66 of a year ago and the zamphir66 of today are quite different people. A list of the changes would be quite long.
How you or I subjectively label that kind of change seems like semantics to me. I.E., why do you like "change of habits" better than "lifestyle change", over and above just a personal feeling? Isn't a lifestyle just a collection of habits?
Change of habits is like taking a different way to work. In my case it was most defiantly a "life style change". I changed the way I viewed food and how I prepared it. It changed my hobbies and interests, which in turn lead to me changing what I read, watched, and how I spent money. It's kind of a transformation thing.
As to the OT: No matter the set of data or control group there are always outliers. Sometimes you're the special flower, but probably not.
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Need2Exerc1se wrote: »On a personal level I dislike the term 'lifestyle change'. I love my lifestyle so my goal was to lose weight with as little change to lifestyle as possible.
See, my lifestyle consisted of smoking, abusing alcohol, not leaving the house, playing video games when I should be working, eating poorly, sleeping poorly, hating myself, resenting others, dwelling on the past and fearing the future, and on and on...
I had to change ALL of that, and I'm not done by any means. It wouldn't make sense to change my way of eating but ignore all of those other things. I don't think it could even work. That's why, for me, this is a lifestyle change.
I thought my starting my comment with "on a personal level" would have made it clear I wasn't suggesting it was a bad term or thing for anyone but me.0 -
Calling it "lifestyle change" or (ugh) "journey" vs. diet is not going to make a difference. What matters is having measures in place to make sure you don't go back to overeating for your particular activity level.
My eating "lifestyle" didn't really change -- I don't snack much anymore, but snacking wasn't a "lifestyle" or an important part of mine. I'm more mindful (again) about food choices, but again, that's not a "lifestyle change" or "journey." It's just being mindful. I did have a problem (not entirely solved) with food as self-comfort/emotional eating, but again working on that isn't a "lifestyle change" -- it's part of being an adult and constantly striving to improve, IMO, as well as simple awareness.
My activity did change, and that was more significant, but that was more going back to my preferred lifestyle, and not some kind of "lifestyle change." It was realizing why I wasn't as active as I prefer and taking steps to live as I like. If I didn't care to be active, I still could maintain a loss.
Beyond this, my "lifestyle" is far broader, and has to do with all the other things I do in my life, my friendships and other deep relationships, my job, how I spend my time overall. Reducing all that to about how much I eat or even how much I exercise annoys me, which is why I don't use the term "lifestyle change" (I certainly don't mind if others do, and for them it might even be true, although it always sounds ultradramatic to me -- I mean, I pay attention to calories and use less oil when I cook, makes a difference overall between losing and gaining, but hardly that different -- indeed, that I could continue to have my normal lifestyle and meal and didn't have to overhaul everything was what helped me realize I could do this).
Also, now I am a healthy weight and really like how I eat and my activity level, but want to maybe lose a little more. Do I really need a "lifestyle change" to do this? Or can I just eat a little less for a while again?0 -
I personally hate the term "life style change"..
http://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/comment/37289671#Comment_37289671
My journey might be different that yours. To reach the point I've reached has required some profound changes in my relationships to food, to my body, and to my self. Even if I choose not to call it a "lifestyle change," for me I think that's objectively what it is. The zamphir66 of a year ago and the zamphir66 of today are quite different people. A list of the changes would be quite long.
How you or I subjectively label that kind of change seems like semantics to me. I.E., why do you like "change of habits" better than "lifestyle change", over and above just a personal feeling? Isn't a lifestyle just a collection of habits?
I put the link in my post because this discussion pointed out that many many people call it something different. This was debated and discussed at length there.
I dislike the term life style because I have been living my life style already. I make choices to adhere to and live my life style. I am not alone in how I view or make an opinion on this topic. Just like you, others will be agreement with you or display their own views.0 -
Need2Exerc1se wrote: »I thought my starting my comment with "on a personal level" would have made it clear I wasn't suggesting it was a bad term or thing for anyone but me.
I though you meant you take it personally when people use it. Seinfeld moment.
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words!0
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Need2Exerc1se wrote: »I thought my starting my comment with "on a personal level" would have made it clear I wasn't suggesting it was a bad term or thing for anyone but me.
I though you meant you take it personally when people use it. Seinfeld moment.
Oh, no. Just offering a different perspective.
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I think a more accurate term might be "life long" changes. Whenever I see people referencing lifestyle changes, it's usually in contrast with diets that are short term and warning of the dangers of going back to prior eating habits.0
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Ultimately, it's the individual that matters. You have the power to sustain your success, if you put your mind to it. When you go back to your original way of eating, however, the outcome is inevitable. In that case, it's not the diet that failed.
That's why Lifestyle Change is a preferred term in these parts.
+1 for this. What's important is not undermining yourself by using language that reinforces your own negative self-talk about your likelihood of success -- or failure.
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters.
When something happens, the only thing in your power is your attitude toward it; you can either accept it or resent it." -- Epictetus 55-135AD0 -
richardgavel wrote: »I think a more accurate term might be "life long" changes. Whenever I see people referencing lifestyle changes, it's usually in contrast with diets that are short term and warning of the dangers of going back to prior eating habits.
Even just longer term changes and understanding how to sustain it and being willing to be flexible to do that. Nothing has to be lifelong -- for example, the type of activity I enjoy now might not be what works for me at age 70.1
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