"Getting Really Lean": Step 1

RedSquadronLeader
RedSquadronLeader Posts: 84 Member
edited November 17 in Getting Started
Wanted to put this in "Getting Started" because I haven't been actively trying to lose more weight for a while, but I've recently decided that I'd like to get super-lean for summer. (Next winter all bets are off, I'll probably eat everything and attempt to hibernate). I was eating a healthy diet and exercising previously, but only occasionally tracking my intake and then just estimating. So I figured my first step was establishing some baseline data.

Now I've got nearly 3 weeks of data, and I'm really very (pleasantly) surprised by the results, so I thought I'd share! Maybe it will help someone else who's trying to tweak their diet or exercise plan. The analysis here is very cursory, I might delve into it a bit more later on once I've got more to work with, and post an update.

My stats are: 5'4", Female, ~144 lbs, BF probably ~28%(ish - I'm going by visuals alone)
I exercise a lot - walk 5-10 miles/day (mostly just to get around), weight training 5-6 days/week, martial arts 3 days/week. I don't have a fitbit or other wearable activity tracker because I'm cheap.

Anyway, I'm absolutely shocked to see that my TDEE is around 2700 kcal. I guess I tend to seriously underestimate my calorie burn, particularly from walking, because it doesn't feel like much effort and I do it every day. I'm also totally geeking out that the TDEE trend is so flat.

Without further ado, the data: This is my weight each day so far, with a linear best fit. The slope (in lbs/day) currently gives me a projected weight loss just shy of 2 lbs/week. I expect this to decrease later on, but that should show up in the TDEE projections (see second graph).

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This is my TDEE estimate: I use the (positive) projected deficit in kcals based on the linear trend in my weight analysis and add it to my actual total calorie consumption for that day. It's encouraging that the slope here is nearly zero; I expect that if a linear fit is a good fit to my weight data, and it also tells me that my calorie intake is fluctuating more or less randomly around the average. (Notice: 0.88 kcal/day on a scale of 2500 kcals is REALLY flat. This makes me happy, as I have a very regular baseline from which to gauge what to eat in a day).

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Here are the residuals for the linear fit to weight vs. time. Since there's no particular trend, it tells me that the linear approximation is good, but if it does start getting trend-y (and I expect it will as I lose more weight and approach goal, as well as I expect my TDEE to drop) then I'll have to reassess and use some different analysis techniques.

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And I guess for good measure here's my daily total calorie intake:

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Replies

  • mom23mangos
    mom23mangos Posts: 3,069 Member
    As a fellow data geek, great analysis!
  • RedSquadronLeader
    RedSquadronLeader Posts: 84 Member
    I guess I do have a question related to this. I set my cals in MFP at 1730, knowing that it's roughly my BMR if I'm sedentary, so I figured I'd eat around that mark and with exercise figured I'd be around 1 lb/week loss.

    But with this new TDEE, I'm thinking I might set my calories there, not log exercise, and shoot to be a few hundred below that. I feel like if I set my goal at 1730 I'm subconsciously motivated to stay around that mark and see green numbers, when perhaps I should eat a bit more.

    What I'd really like is a way to extract RMR from this data. But short of buying a fitbit/heart rate monitor or lying in bed doing nothing for a week, I'm not really seeing a reasonably accurate way to do it...unless I'm missing something? Any ideas from fellow data geeks?
  • craigo3154
    craigo3154 Posts: 2,572 Member
    I actually would not worry about the RMR as this will change based on lean muscle mass (amongst other things). If you alter your activity level, your lean muscle mass will change over time.

    Your TDEE based on current activity level is a good guide for setting your daily calorie intake. Readjust calories after a couple of weeks of data after the activity level/type change.

    As you know 3500 calories per pound. Assuming a negligible increse in muscle mass (with ongoing strength training, this is unlikely), then every 3500 calories under accumulated TDEE (regardless of time) equates to a pound lost.

    If you REALLY wanted to get a close estimate of calories per activity, you would need to drop one for two or three weeks and re-calculate the TDEE (from calories consumed and weight change). The difference from normal you have is the calorie burn for that activity.. Repeat for each activity dropping each one in turn (restarting the one not being tested). Do not compensate for a dropped activity by increasing another.

    I love how you are using data from observations and drawing conclusions rather than just blind estimating.


  • TavistockToad
    TavistockToad Posts: 35,719 Member
    If you're wanting to maintain as much muscle as possible, you shouldn't have a deficit of 1000 cals.

    You've only got 10lbs to lose so 0.5lb to 1lb is the max deficit you need.
  • RedSquadronLeader
    RedSquadronLeader Posts: 84 Member
    @craigo3154 Dropping one of the activities for a bit and seeing how that changes TDEE ... that's a great idea! I guess I just need to do 2/3 (I can't drop the walking anyway, it's how I get to work). Curious to see the strength training especially. I'll do it when I need a good recovery week.

    @TavistockToad I agree with you, I just didn't think it would be that large when I started. I'm going to increase. Also I'm hungry haha. But, I actually figure about 20 lbs to really lean out.

    Thanks all.
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