Probability of gaining it all back... and more

I don't think weight gain is really feasable, unless one does NOT make this a change for the rest of their life. If they go back to eating the way they did before losing weight, they're going to gain it all back. However, if they stay on the straight and narrow, keep eating smart, being active for the rest of their lives, they're going to be fit and healthy.

Well. I hit my original goal weight in Sept 2010 and I maintained that without any trouble from then until May 2011 (so I went through the holiday season, a hip injury AND a back injury - both of which kept me out of the gym... yet I still maintained it!). I upped my calories in May as an experiment and I lost another 5-7lbs. I have been maintaining 143-145lbs since May 2011. So, in reality I've maintained my original goal for almost a year now. I've adjusted things to make sure that I can sustain this long term.

I workout 2-3 days a week for 60 mins each day. I know this is something I can do long term - and isn't affecting my everyday life.

I eat 2200-2500 net calories a day and I maintain. I know that this is a range that is comfortable for my body.

I've found a weight that is comfortable for me and easy to maintain. It is on the "high end" of the charts for my height but I am comfortable with where I am. I don't struggle or feel like I am fighting my body to remain at this weight.

I won't let myself be the in 80-90% that gain it back because I've changed my lifestyle and don't view this as a 'diet'. I eat what I want, when I want - but I do it in moderation.

It is hard to reply to this because I think that the thought of all the work and effort to loose weight surmounting to nothing is hard to swallow. To think of all the things I have sacrificed eating and the hours spent in the gym ending up with me being back where I started or weighing even more, makes me want to give up. But here I am replying because I think there is some truth to what you have discovered. I feel like the choice to eat 1200 calories a day is not one that will provide long term results unless you are willing to commit to this being a lifelong change. I see myself binging often because of the restrictive calories but I also have hope that in time I will adjust to this amount and it will be something I can do for the rest of my life. I think it differs for everyone, the specifc amount you need to eat. You need to decide for yourself what is reasonable amount that you can commit to not for a few weeks or months, but for life. I am trying to adjust to just one day off where I can eat what I want but I also am thinking 1400 calories may be more realistic.

I feel like most people lose the weight they want, and then stop doing what they did to lose it.
Most people STOP counting calories, STOP exercising and STOP weighing themselves.
That's what has happened to me in the past, but it will not happen this time.
No way am I letting successfully losing 15+ pounds thru my fingers, much 20-30.

I will still weigh myself every day and eat more carefully and/or exercise more if my weight creeps up even a couple of pounds.
Period. I don't care if it is obsessive. No way am I wasting all this time and effort.

I just took a college health class and my text book said the same and I have lost my weight before and gained it all back plus some. I think before, when I originally lost 50 lbs, I wasn't doing it in a healthy way. I worked out for an hour and a half a day but also I barely ate anything. Maybe 1000 calories a day. This time I'm eating as much as I possibly can without gaining weight (healthy food, low fat, low sugar, more veggies) and then I work out a moderate amount. As the weight comes off I will increase my work outs and hopefully decrease the amount of calories my body thinks it needs. That way I'm raising my metabolism and getting my body used to a lower calorie intake without starving myself. It's tough to think that I might gain it all back because it has happened to me once but I'm hoping I can find ways to maintain it. I also read in my text book that when you have been over weight and lost it, you have to work out about 1.5 hours per day to maintain because you are at risk of gaining it back but that doesn't seem so hard. Split it up into 3 half hour work outs and then it doesn't seem like so much.

Statistics are notoriously flaky. After all, do you know that 75% of people believe every statistic they read?

I have gained it all back and more on previous "diets" and diets they were. There were no interwebs at that time and no support systems like these (without having to go to a club and get pig ears put on you when you gained on weekly weighin) nor did I have a good "weigh" of calculating calories or as clear an understanding of how and why I gain or lose weight. We have a lot to thank for the current "information age".

I previously took the position that a diet was strictly temporary and that I wouldn't have to adhere to any sort of regime afterwards, or at least not for the rest of my life, like I know I do now.

I also made the mistake of overexercising my rosy behind off before to lose it, not recognizing that this is unsustainable also.

So here's my plan this time around:
1. This isn't a diet. It's the rest of my life. I will be recording calories and exercise until I lose my faculties because inattention and sloth are our worst enemies.
2. I will not be exercising my rosy behind off. I will be exercising regularly and moderately. If for any reason I can't exercise, I will revise my daily calories down to account for the lack.
3. My goal weight is a polite suggestion only. If I can't make it happen and I stabilize 10 pounds over, then sobeit.
4. When I reach a stable sustainable weight, I will raise my daily calories by 100, wait a while and raise it again, until I stop losing and properly stabilize. I expect that to take quite a while and it might get me to my goal weight a little slower but easier on the body.
5. I'm going to forgive myself for little lapses and account for them with more exercise (likely over a period of days) and a little less food.
6. I'm not going to eat stupid calories (like alcohol) except in moderation and rarely.
7. And especially, I'm not going to succumb to peer pressure and guilt, because food isn't what it's all about. It's who you are and how you feel.

So there! I'm not done this journey yet and I will let you know how this works once I'm onto the maintenance phase

I agree with the post to a certain degree....if you diet-then yes you will most likely gain the weight back (plus some). I have seen it happen to too many people to not believe that is true.

HOWEVER, if you are making a lifestyle change (big difference) then you are not relying on some fad to keep you healthy and skinny. You are in fact making lifelong adjustments that will be just as effective now as they are fifty years from now.

I learned this from my PT and it makes sense. Limit the carbs, increase the protein, choose the right types of fat and avoid empty caleries...i.e sugar. Throw in some exercise and you will see the changes take place.

That is exactky why those '' I eat 1200 caloreis a day ...or less...and lose weight no problem, I am followed by my doctor, I know what is best for me, I am short so I can eat less'' make me want to cry. Because it is not sustainable. They are messing with their metabolism so in order to maintain their weight loss, they will have to eat 1400-1600 calories a day. Those who eat more, will gain the weight back. Those who feed their metabolism and make it a fat burning machine will maintain at 2000 to 2500 calories a day. Alot less likely to gain the weight back.

If a person views their weight loss as a "fix" or as they are on a "diet"...yes, they will gain weight back. If you change the problem that leads to weight gain, you don't gain it back.

That being said, I gained weight in college, lost it in college, and have kept it off since. I would just like to lose a little more now....maybe.

At the age of 60 I have been on more diets than I can count. They all work, but making a lifetime commitment is not as easy as people think. Right now I'm 5'7" and weigh 200 pounds. Though it is not horrendous, I have weighed much more in my life. I have had diabetes for 20 years and I have decided to have WLS (weight loss surgery). This may seem an easy way out to some, but I haven't much more time to try another diet. I need help to stay in control and the surgery will hopefully be the tool that does that. I wouldn't recommend this to someone who has only a few pounds to lose, or is young, but for me, it is the right move. I wish you all luck with staying on your new lifestyle. You are all right, it is a lifestyle change you need to make, diets are the answer.

That is exactky why those '' I eat 1200 caloreis a day ...or less...and lose weight no problem, I am followed by my doctor, I know what is best for me, I am short so I can eat less'' make me want to cry. Because it is not sustainable. They are messing with their metabolism so in order to maintain their weight loss, they will have to eat 1400-1600 calories a day. Those who eat more, will gain the weight back. Those who feed their metabolism and make it a fat burning machine will maintain at 2000 to 2500 calories a day. Alot less likely to gain the weight back.

I eat 1200 or less and for the 5 months I upped my calories to a 2000 I didnt gain even 1 pound back,because I do know whats best for me and works for me more so than random people on the internet

My body likes to be at 155. When I gain weight, as soon as I start eating healthy again, I quickly drop to 155. Unless I diet, I can't seem to drop below that and as soon as I stop, it comes back with in a week. I'm hoping that continuing a healthy lifestyle, I can eventually hit my goal of 140 and stay there.

Here's some hope, and given without enabling the lack of people's progress

This is a difficult task, I'm not gonna lie. I have sustained over a hundred pounds lost for almost a year and a half now. I lost my weight being relentless in every aspect of the journey. I ate 1200cal, and was active through my current lifestyle of being a student and Mom to two toddlers, but didn't habitually exercise at the gym. I did home videos (tae bo, yoga, core rhythms, zumba, etc.) and stayed active in the outdoors by swimming, bike riding, and some walking/running. I only ate small portions of calorie-ridden items, and I made myself accountable for any slip-up by exercising the overage away, or creating a larger deficit through intake the following day. It took me 11 months, reaching my goal in March 2010. I WANTED IT, simple as that. If you don't really want to lose bad enough, you'll find excuses not to.

To maintain, I eat between 1500-1700cals/day. I slowly incresed my cals from 1200, weighed myself often to note any fluctuations, and found my happy groove at my current intake level. It's obviously something I am capable of doing for life...I'm living it:flowerforyou:

I just finished a Statistics class at my University, received an A in it, and I can tell you that the study you speak of is from inferential stats. Meaning the researcher created a set of hypotheses about a population (i.e. Americans who've lost weight) & compared that to a sample of people that fall within that category, in order to see if there was a correlation between the two, leading the researcher to reject his Null hypothesis. Here's the thing: Who knows how large/small the tangible sample of people was, and/or who these people were? They could have been some of the most unmotivated, inactive, gluttonous losers (weight losers lol).

BASICALLY, you will never ever ever know the stats of every person in the US who has lost weight, so you shouldn't take any statistic to heart, especially one which has that tremendous of a population. Inferential stats, and even Descriptive stats, do not PROVE anything, they are merely predicted observations when used with populations. Hence why they usually contain: "On average", "In general".

I don't think you're "debbie downer", I just think you don't want to set yourself up for failure when/if you don't lose or gain some back, and be able to justify it based on something, just like anyone who doesn't want to be dissappointed. But since I've done it, and sustain it, I can tell you, DO NOT place your health and current body dissatisfaction in the hands of people trying to make money by getting published based on their "discovery". Yes, we are aware luck is against us to gain back, but that's b/c changing your life is hard work, mentally & physically. You don't need probability to know that. You CAN do this. Believe it, achieve it!