The predicted weight loss when filling in food diary?

nooboots
nooboots Posts: 480 Member
in Getting Started
I am new to this website and have started losing weight again.

I am confused by the 'prediction' at the bottom of the food diary when you finish entering your foods for the day.

My goals are for 1lb per week so I am set for slow loss. So give or take in 5 weeks I will be hopefully 5lb lighter if all goes well on paper

Everyday so far (since Monday when I started) I have eaten less than my calorie deficit each day, not on purpose but thats just how it has run so far (wont be like that at the weekends).

On Monday, it said to me that if I carried on like that, I would have lost 7lb in 5 weeks. Tuesday it said 6lb, yesterday it said 6lb and today it is predicting 5lb loss

I am just confused at why, despite another calorie deficit today, it is just predicting what the 'paper' calculation is anyway for my weight loss, the loss that should occur if I stuck to the calories?

Is it because, every day I have gone over my fat intake?

I know its somewhat academic because I am so large that much of the weight I lose this week will be water and will be more than a lb but Im just interested in how it works.

Replies

  • Floriane_M
    Floriane_M Posts: 1 Member
    It can be a few things including exercise.
    If you did say 400 calories worth of exercise on Monday then it may forecast out the rest of the week if you do 400 calories of exercise every day.
    If you did say 200 on the Tuesday, then there would be a re-adjustment in the predicton as to the loss.
    It is not because you have 'gone over' on fats, at the end of the day you will have consumed 'x' amount of calories in whatever form and that is what the total is based on.

  • nooboots
    nooboots Posts: 480 Member
    Oh, no exercise yet unfortunately, so its just the very basic calories consumed on my chart.
  • jennyswatton84
    jennyswatton84 Posts: 5 Member
    i had difficulty understanding as well it said i would double my weight even though have not eat all calories was given for day checked original weight in and it was higher than i was for some reason have changed it back but am still concern because the figure is still red even though it would mean i would have lost weight is this normal please anybody know
  • nooboots
    nooboots Posts: 480 Member
    jennyswatton84 wrote: »
    i had difficulty understanding as well it said i would double my weight even though have not eat all calories was given for day checked original weight in and it was higher than i was for some reason have changed it back but am still concern because the figure is still red even though it would mean i would have lost weight is this normal please anybody know

    Its funny you say that because I used to use a website called foodfocus which I much preferred to MFP as it was UK based and in stones and lbs and I liked the layout better, the graphs and things

    But one thing that annoyed me about that website was sort of funny glitches, so it wouldnt really refresh the page properly and would make things up about your calorie intake or your exercise so you had to keep an eye on it and go in and out of the page to make sense.

    Anyway, back to this website and I have had a look at the deficit over the past 4 days which are around 440 Monday, 150 Tuesday, 230 yesterday and 200 today, so I can see why the predicted loss reduces day on day for me.

    As I say, what the computer says is not going to make a difference to how my body works, Im just confused and dont like it when I dont know why somethings doing something!
  • Danp
    Danp Posts: 1,561 Member
    It's a gimmick and nothing more. The prediction is so inaccurate that it's utterly meaningless and quite frankly I'm not sure why it even exists.

    There is no benefit to 'completing' your diary each day other than to get that meaningless message. I haven't hit the complete button in forever.
  • nooboots
    nooboots Posts: 480 Member
    Im not completing the food diary to get the message, I know the message is inaccurate as I have lost already more than the prediction and the week is not finished but the prediction is for the next 5 weeks!

    I just wondered how it worked.

    I find it useful to log what Ive had though so that I can feel that I have managed it and therefore will manage it ongong
  • Redordeadhead
    Redordeadhead Posts: 1,188 Member
    edited May 2019
    In addition to the feature being totally inaccurate, bear in mind that 1lb of weight loss = a 3500 calorie deficit. So if you were under your calorie goal but only by 100 or 200 calories, it's not enough to make a difference to total pounds lost.
  • nooboots
    nooboots Posts: 480 Member
    Redordeadhead wrote: »
    In addition to the feature being totally inaccurate, bear in mind that 1lb of weight loss = a 3500 calorie deficit. So if you were under your calorie goal but only by 100 or 200 calories, it's not enough to make a difference to total pounds lost.

    That is a very good point
  • AnnPT77
    AnnPT77 Posts: 34,133 Member
    edited May 2019
    Redordeadhead wrote: »
    In addition to the feature being totally inaccurate, bear in mind that 1lb of weight loss = a 3500 calorie deficit. So if you were under your calorie goal but only by 100 or 200 calories, it's not enough to make a difference to total pounds lost.

    False, though, mathematically speaking, if you do it every day. Figure it: 7 days x 5 weeks = 35 days; 35 days x 100 calories = 3500 calories; 3500 calories is roughly one pound of weight loss.

    The silly message says "if every day were like today".

    Well, of course every day won't be exactly like today. No one eats precisely the same number of calories every day (even if they log exactly the same number, because one apple is sweeter than another, we mis-measure, forget, etc.). No one does exactly the same exercise at absolutely the same intensity for the same number of seconds. No one does exactly the same chores at work and home. Etc.

    So: The "If" condition is false. The conclusion ("you will weigh XX pounds") is therefore not very meaningful. (In logic, it's called a "counterfactual conditional", false premise, indeterminate truth-value conclusion.)

    In practice, logging 100 fewer food calories, or 100 more exercise calories every day won't result in exactly an additional pound lost, either, for these same reasons (among others). But, in a general sense, 100 calories a day is a pound in just over a month, and around 10 pounds in a year. (As an aside, something like 100 calories over maintenance is how a lot of people slowly gain weight as they age in the first place, by eating just a tiny bit more every day, and moving just a tiny bit less . . . persistently, for a really, really, long time.)

    OP, all it's doing is using your one day's logged calories, comparing that to its estimate of the calories it would take for you to maintain your current weight (as you've recorded your current weight in MFP) with your current profile settings (age, activity level, etc.). Nutrients (fats, etc.) have no bearing on the calculation. (They also have relatively little effect on weight loss either, except indirectly though things like energy level and satiation.).

    The prediction's no kind of crystal ball. It's not even a nuanced calculation. Since it's all based on estimates, it might be incorrect even if every day were exactly like today. Ignore it.
  • cmriverside
    cmriverside Posts: 34,404 Member
    :lol: And you KNOW someone has tried eating the same exact thing for 5 weeks just to test it.

    Wherever you are That Person, speak up!
  • brittanystebbins95
    brittanystebbins95 Posts: 567 Member
    I don't know about MFP, but Losertown is SUPER accurate when it comes to weight predictions. I entered all my data, followed it pretty closely, and was within like a quarter of a pound of the prediction each week. Its under the "Food is for eating" tab, I think, if you try to find it. It lets you play with different values. Calorie maintenance calculator, is what its called.
  • IsETHome
    IsETHome Posts: 386 Member
    Danp wrote: »
    It's a gimmick and nothing more. The prediction is so inaccurate that it's utterly meaningless and quite frankly I'm not sure why it even exists.

    There is no benefit to 'completing' your diary each day other than to get that meaningless message. I haven't hit the complete button in forever.

    Its a good motivator to me. The better I am in a given day, the more I'm motivated to keep on track to reach that goal. In some months, it has been right on target. Other months not as much. Still inspiring!
  • OooohToast
    OooohToast Posts: 257 Member
    IsETHome wrote: »
    Danp wrote: »
    It's a gimmick and nothing more. The prediction is so inaccurate that it's utterly meaningless and quite frankly I'm not sure why it even exists.

    There is no benefit to 'completing' your diary each day other than to get that meaningless message. I haven't hit the complete button in forever.

    Its a good motivator to me. The better I am in a given day, the more I'm motivated to keep on track to reach that goal. In some months, it has been right on target. Other months not as much. Still inspiring!

    I think so too - its a reminder of what a permanent increase of what seems like a small amount of calories can do (even if not quite correct).

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