The GLP-1 juggernaut is slowing. Eli Lily missed a sales target.

@MargaretYakoda interesting.

Some off the cuff thoughts-

At some point it has to be an oversaturated market.
When we get to the point.. I don’t know.

According to an article in cnbc today, Eli reps said it’s was a problem with “inventory stocking .”

“The primary culprit was an inventory hit to Mounjaro and Zepbound ... not weaker demand," Citi analyst Geoff Meacham wrote in a research note Wednesday.

Jared Holz, Mizuho health-care equity strategist, wrote in an email that "destocking" — or selling existing inventory for the drugs rather than stocking up on more — came as a surprise, especially with the high level of demand for the treatments.”


=>Eli Lilly has invested $15 billion to expand manufacturing capacity for its injectable drugs for 24-25. Im sure we will be inundated with advertisements with happy skinny people.

How much of the injectable - medicalized weight loss use is just great marketing?

chris_in_cal wrote: »

MargaretYakoda wrote: »

Eli Lilly's rare sales miss for weight-loss drug sends shares tumbling

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/eli-lilly-misses-third-quarter-profit-amid-soaring-demand-weight-loss-drug-2024-10-30/

Looks like there’s a limit to demand for GLP-1 meds.

It was just FDA approved for sleep apnea and next is Medicare adding it to approved treatments. That can't hurt the company's sales.

My understanding is that Medicare won't approve it because it would bankrupt them to pay out that much for a single medication for so many people🤷‍♀️ but I don't know

chris_in_cal wrote: »

MargaretYakoda wrote: »

Looks like there’s a limit to demand for GLP-1 meds.

It sounds like it's a made up limit. Between sleep apnea, obesity, and diabetes I'm sure some clients are still interested in getting treated.

sollyn23l2 wrote: »

Medicare won't approve it because it would bankrupt them to pay out that much for a single medication for so many people

Yeah, it such a good idea to have these meds prices negotiated by the Feds. Like every other country in the world. Lily gets their dough, and patients get top care.

In many European countries these drugs are self pay.

https://www.euronews.com/health/2024/10/11/france-wont-pay-for-weight-loss-drug-wegovy-what-about-other-european-countries#:~:text=Wegovy is expected to cost,to help patients shed weight.