Seem to be stuck (again)

On n=1, Jimmy's 1800 and high percentage of Cal from exercise prompted me to review my stuff (based on my avail data sets I couldn't easily do longer). So for Jan 1, 2023 to Dec 31, 2024 my Fitbit "total energy expenditure estimation" ERROR went up! From less than 1% ten years ago to a WHOPPING 6%!!!**

So basically ~177 Calories per day ERROR on an average intake of 2846 and expenditure of 3053 — adjusted figures should be ~2846 and ~2876 respectively taking into account the 5 to 7 lbs overall loss during this time period (from a trend in the 163/164 range to a trend in the 157/158lb range, with a peak near 170lbs and bottom near 155lbs!)😲

The bike exercise is so much higher than that and yet I am barely reconciling myself to this EPIC "fail" 😝

Off I go now, having to mentally reduce my posted deficits by ~200 Cal every single day! 😲😢😡

I guess I will just have to console myself by no longer being obese😛 and by having made it through ten years of feeling better and being able to move😎! And I guess that 200Cal MAY be close enough for hand grenades!😝

As to Jimmy… all I can think to suggest is the "take it easy" pathway. Make sure your thyroid stuff is all good. But maybe consider shifting some of your effort moving forward away from your traditional "lose weight for the cycling season" routine.

Maybe try to deliberately fight for a more gentle and flat weight perturbation over a longer time period. Perhaps over 24 months peak to trough. Maybe even 36. As contrasted to accepting and adopting the lifestyle of going at it hard every year.

One option for achieving that could be to continue your current efforts while aiming for a lower effective deficit… a thought process closer to "any" deficit is good and it doesn't matter how soon I reach "current goal"🤔

** this assumes, of course, that the quality of logging hasn't changed over the years, which would be incorrect. Plus the 27 un-logged vacation days over the two years were not exactly low intake ones!

sorry Ann I sort of missed your EAT vs NEAT estimate. And percentages of tota.

Sure, in situations where you have a specific "high end" exercise activity it may be "easy" to directly quantify EAT and separate it from NEAT.

For many of us, and in particular when we use "all day" wearables that auto-recognize many of our favorite exercises, I think that it becomes a bit of a less meaningful distinction. And it is also dependent on the specific wearable's algorithms.

For better or for worse (and this coming from someone who ten years in still measures food to the gram and spends half a day estimating % errors on their Fitbit), I find it a bit meaningless to be trying to be THAT specific.

There will be errors. As long as they are not systematic some will cancel out in the wash. You then look at the expected vs actual trend over a long period of time. Consider what may be causing any unexpected issues such as why there may now be more or less divergence between expected and actual weight change as compared to previously… and you adjust. Rinse, lather, repeat.

This I agree with . . .

. . . but inevitably, with one exception. And that one's probably personal.

My good brand/model tracker (Garmin Vivoactive 3 followed by Vivoactive 4) is so insanely far from reality for me that I can't act as if an all-day wearable makes EAT vs. NEAT a less meaningful distinction. Garmin thinks my total calorie expenditure has averaged 1636 calories daily over the past full year. Libra says I'm up 2.7 pounds over that same year, theoretically averaging 26 calories eaten above maintenance daily. Would we assume something like 1662 average intake? No, I've eaten 2100-2200 most days, more like 1850 on rest days (usually once a week, occasionally more) and well over the 2100-2200 probably at least once or twice a month. The device is clearly seriously unreliable for me.

BTW, I hadn't seen your message I quoted here before I wrote the one that appears in the thread after this quoted one. It probably sounds dumb in any case, but even dumber out of order.

Apologies for the digression, @Jthanmyfitnesspal !

Not to mention that - IMO - a person ideally would be eating maintenance calories or close to it, at minimum during the acute phase of healing. If in a deficit, a person has a bit of cushion where maybe they lose a little slower if calories are off, but potentially they still lose. Maintenance feels like a bit more of a balancing act.

Anyway: It's all an estimate and it pays to eat a bit less than suggested if you want to lose weight.

yes. Simple. Not worth getting lost in the weeds over these things.

Hats off to the intensity of effort!

But now…… * F I G H T * :)

As in. Don't stop being mindful…. for another 6 months at least.

Because your "everything tastes good" cues and "just a little bit more" ARE going to come back.

So a new goal could be.... delay delay delay! Flatten that weight curve by hook and by crook!

Your loss trendline looks quite "in line"

it's never easy from the ground level. But look at how pretty it is when you're zoomed out!

full disclosure - I did not read the other replies.

I like this Coach Viva video on the phases of weight loss.

This has been a long road this time (21 lbs. in 6 months), which has made it very close to ~1lb/week, but it has not been at all linear. My age and hypothyroidism have made it very hard and I've endured a lot of hunger.

Your average daily calorie deficit was about 401 calories per day for six straight months. Wow. And honestly, with how hard you train, I’d be hungry too.

There’s a lot of math above (I couldn’t read it all apologies), but the takeaway is nothing short of IMPRESSIVE, no matter your age or starting point. Losing 0.5–1 lb per week is not slow, it’s solid, sustainable progress. Let’s normalize these results, and celebrate how exceptional this kind of consistency is, especially when you didn’t have a ton to lose to begin with.

Personally, that level of deficit combined with intense workouts would be too much for me, I’d be constantly hungry (I’m younger and not hypothyroid). Maybe there’s a middle ground that makes maintenance over the next 6 months feel more manageable.

Are you planning to stick with this lifestyle long term? Also, what results were you expecting for 6 months? 2-3 lbs a week? Just curious, what do you think would be different if you were younger and not hypothyroid? Are those results you would recommend to others who meet that criteria? Sometimes we expect more from ourselves than others, and we need to give ourselves some leeway and understanding.

I always use the rule of thumb that utilizing a pound of bodyfat requires under-eating by 3500kcals. At ~-1lb/week, that comes to ~-500kcals/day.

Same

Now, what's so agonizing is that my calculated daily deficit, based on a 1500kcal/day eating plan calculated by MFP (sedentary setting) and on calorie estimates provided by Garmin, was way higher than 500kcals/day (as stated above). I really had to ignore exercise calories entirely to lose weight this time. It means that my bod can shut down to closer to 1000kcals/day when it wants to (cold hands, etc.). Horrible!

I’ve had cold hands my entire life, so I understand how annoying that is. In fact, I run cold everywhere, regardless what season, but I digress. Aside from that, you accomplished a lot so congrats! However, I would get your meds checked- things definitely don’t add up here.