When should I expect to see some downwards progress?

Hi all,
I’ve been trying to lose the baby weight (from having my second daughter in June 2011) and get in shape for almost 5 months now. I’m 5 foot 9 or 175cm and started at 89.7kg (197.3lb) I have had success so far – I’ve lost 11.6kg or 25.5lb (so I’m now 78.1kg or 171.8lb) by doing the old weightwatchers programme on my own (using old books), with weekly weigh ins with some of my friends from work on facebook.
At Christmas I put back on 1.6kg (3.5lb) but have since lost it again plus another 300grams. I have come to a bit of a pause in my journey and so to try and regain my momentum I’ve started logging on here every day and following the mfp way of life.
I am aiming to lose 1.5lb or so a week so my goal calories are 1350, I am also still feeding my almost 8 month old so am adding an extra 400 calories on a day. I’m up to day 5 of level 1 on the 30 Day Shred and am trying to do it every day. I also have got back into my running (I used to be a bit of an avid runner a few years ago) but can only manage once a week (due to having a 3 year old and a 7 month old) I have found that I can still run without needing to walk (well I’ve only tried to run 7km) but have slowed down a lot compared to how fast I used to go. I try to change it up a bit by pretending to be being chased by an axe wielding maniac or wolf to try and get a few fartleks in there. So I earn a few extra calories here and there.
Anyway, my last weigh in was yesterday and I lost 200grams (0.44lbs) which is way down I what I normally average (700grams or 1.5lbs). I’m not too worried as I am pretty happy with what I’ve accomplished so far, but I was wondering if I should expect to see smaller losses or if they might pick up again after a few more weeks on mfp.

Thanks for reading!! (Sorry for the novel – High School English teacher = I just can’t help myself!!)