Study: Probability of Obese People Reaching ‘Normal’ Weight Less Than 1%
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BMI is a joke, BMI is a joke, BMI is a joke....
Sing it with me now.
I was 6" 265lbs in college and not obese....in fact to be within the "healthy" guidelines of BMI I would to have to lose ALL the body fat on my body and then lots of muscle, bone, tendons and blood.
BMI is nothing.
I could dunk a nerf ball with Trex arms, bench over 4 plates and had a pulse in the low 50s all while being able to put my foot to my ear.
So N=1 isn't good right?
I always enjoy the saying, it's easy to be fat, but hard to be fit. If fit was the easy route, we wouldn't have a population that is ~50% overweight.0 -
I guess I am in the "less than 1%" then. Was morbidly obese in March 2012 @ 290#.
Reached goal weight of 130 in November of 2013 and have been maintaining since then.
Do NOT buy into this study. You can do this with determination and diligence. Many, many people here have done it, and many, many more will accomplish it.
Never give up, because we are all worth it!0 -
How much of the 81 pounds you were over a healthy BMI was muscle? I mean, in addition to the muscle that would go toward making the 184 pounds of lean mass with a 0% BF that would put you at 24.9 BMI?BMI is a joke, BMI is a joke, BMI is a joke....
Sing it with me now.
I was 6" 265lbs in college and not obese....in fact to be within the "healthy" guidelines of BMI I would to have to lose ALL the body fat on my body and then lots of muscle, bone, tendons and blood.
BMI is nothing.
I could dunk a nerf ball with Trex arms, bench over 4 plates and had a pulse in the low 50s all while being able to put my foot to my ear.
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People around here like to dismiss science. But this study echoes the results of others like it. It's scary and disheartening. But some people do lose weight. We do know that support is one of the most important factors for success, which makes sites like this so important.0
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It's not scary and disheartening. It's stupidity on stilts.People around here like to dismiss science. But this study echoes the results of others like it. It's scary and disheartening. But some people do lose weight. We do know that support is one of the most important factors for success, which makes sites like this so important.
It would be like trying to show the odds of graduating college by looking at the entire population without regard for whether the people were even attending college.
That someone who isn't even trying to lose weight fails to lose weight tells nothing -- literally nothing -- about the probability of success of someone who is.
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The OP depresses me a little but not enough to give up. Now I'm more determined than ever.0
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Would it depress you to learn that the odds of being able to paint your house are low based on the fact that a lot of people who weren't even trying to paint their houses didn't succeed in painting their houses?The OP depresses me a little but not enough to give up. Now I'm more determined than ever.
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DeguelloTex wrote: »That someone who isn't even trying to lose weight fails to lose weight tells nothing -- literally nothing -- about the probability of success of someone who is.
Yes, this.
Seriously, anyone who feels bad about the study should read the weightymatters piece that was linked by Orphia above.0 -
1) Posting this here is very insensitive. While most of the people commenting obviously believe they can overcome the odds do you know how many people are going to read this and feel even crappier about themselves than they already do?
No, it's not insensitive. People should understand the facts and challenges, which exist. The problem with this article and study is not that they point to a low chance of success, but that they are incredibly misleading, as they discuss people who aren't necessarily trying to lose weight, and as you note we don't know what those who are trying are doing. I'm sure all of us are in small minorities within the population in some way or another based on something we've chosen to do.
However, people who are obese aren't fragile flowers either and you shouldn't assume that all obese people feel crappy about themselves or want or need your (apparent) pity. Probably lots of the people in the study are generally okay with being obese or would like to lose weight but don't prioritize it.0 -
MissElectricEyeliner wrote: »As someone who is in the "morbidly obese" category on the BMI, with a starting BMI of 46.5ish, I would say that even being in the "overweight" category with a BMI of 26-27 is better than 46 even if it isn't in the "normal range". I honestly don't believe much in the BMI as it's a flawed system. Shout out to those that have gotten to their goal weight regardless of what they were told. I'm not letting any study slow down my weight loss.
I totally agree with this post. It's not about numbers or charts or statistics. It's about changing the way we think and react to and about food. It's about getting to a place where we like ourselves again, and can feel better and and enjoy life.0 -
I think these kinds of studies are helpful for governmental leaders who are looking at the affect of policy changes, but provide little useful information to the person who is trying to lose weight.0
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I've gone from being 36.1 bmi at my heaviest, now I'm 23.1.
I weight loss started out with Weight Watchers, this taught me about the right foods to eat. I've been using MFP for over six months and lost two stone taking my total loss to over 6 stone (84lbs). I've managed to keep this off for eight years 0 -
STUDY FAIL0
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HappyCampr1 wrote: »My BMI is down from 38 to 25.2. I've been in maintenance for a year. It's stupid studies like this that are making me want to get to 24.9% BMI just because. I don't mind doing it for myself, but it irks me that now I want to lose 5 more pounds so I can quit being one of their "unsuccessful" statistics.
That most definitely isn't unsuccessful. It's the study that is unsuccessful, not you. You have done brilliant to go from 38 to 25.2. That 0.3 is nothing at all0 -
TimothyFish wrote: »I think these kinds of studies are helpful for governmental leaders who are looking at the affect of policy changes, but provide little useful information to the person who is trying to lose weight.
Agreed.0 -
DeguelloTex wrote: »
Would it depress you to learn that the odds of being able to paint your house are low based on the fact that a lot of people who weren't even trying to paint their houses didn't succeed in painting their houses?The OP depresses me a little but not enough to give up. Now I'm more determined than ever.
Bad analogy. People don't paint their house for a variety of reasons: 1) it doesn't need it, 2) they have vinyl siding or stain or stucco or something else, 3) they are renting. In contrast, I'd say the vast majority of people who are overweight wish that they were not overweight. The study is trying to determine if people tend to turn that wish into reality. The answer is no. Weight loss appears to be one of those areas where most people need a helping hand.0 -
People don't try to lose weight for a variety of reasons, too. That's the core problem with this "study."peter56765 wrote: »DeguelloTex wrote: »
Would it depress you to learn that the odds of being able to paint your house are low based on the fact that a lot of people who weren't even trying to paint their houses didn't succeed in painting their houses?The OP depresses me a little but not enough to give up. Now I'm more determined than ever.
Bad analogy. People don't paint their house for a variety of reasons: 1) it doesn't need it, 2) they have vinyl siding or stain or stucco or something else, 3) they are renting. In contrast, I'd say the vast majority of people who are overweight wish that they were not overweight. The study is trying to determine if people tend to turn that wish into reality. The answer is no. Weight loss appears to be one of those areas where most people need a helping hand.
What people "wish" is separate from what people do. If someone isn't trying to lose weight, no matter how much he wishes he weren't fat, that's not relevant information for people who are trying to lose weight. That someone was fat and stayed fat provides no useful information without context. If he wasn't trying to lose weight, lack of weight loss isn't a failure.
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What's more depressing about that study is that some researchers got paid a lot of grant money to have some unpaid interns do some SQL queries against the NHS database to produce that polished ball of fecal matter.0
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I was panicked by a study published in Time magazine in 1982. I predicted my future on other people's past statistics. That was just the beginning of many bad decisions. I am not going to let these predictions ruin my future. Weight loss is all about choices and not chances. I am in control of my choices. I live in a country where healthy food is plentiful and easily accessible. I live in an area with many and varied physical activities available. I can make good choices even when it is difficult. Study THIS!0
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peter56765 wrote: »DeguelloTex wrote: »
Would it depress you to learn that the odds of being able to paint your house are low based on the fact that a lot of people who weren't even trying to paint their houses didn't succeed in painting their houses?The OP depresses me a little but not enough to give up. Now I'm more determined than ever.
Bad analogy. People don't paint their house for a variety of reasons: 1) it doesn't need it, 2) they have vinyl siding or stain or stucco or something else, 3) they are renting. In contrast, I'd say the vast majority of people who are overweight wish that they were not overweight. The study is trying to determine if people tend to turn that wish into reality. The answer is no. Weight loss appears to be one of those areas where most people need a helping hand.
The analogy is sound. The study didn't even determine if the people wished to lose weight. It merely looked at a mass of people whose medical records indicated they were obese, and looked for how many lost weight over a period of time. No determination at all of how many even tried.
Take any population attempting to achieve a goal and calculate the probability of success. That's a good metric. Throw in a much larger group that has no interest in that goal, and you'll see the number skewed much lower. That's a useless metric.
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We can just look around the streets and see that weight loss is not easy, or, if you are in MFP, you can look at the new threads, posted daily by folks who are "back again and this time it is going to work". I have been here for four months and have found the drop off from my friends list alarming - so many people who were fired up and enthusiastic just a few months ago, disappearing without a trace, extra pounds still firmly in place.
Do we really think there are tons of blissfully happy obese people out there who have never tried any attempt at weight loss? Chat to anyone on this site- anyone - and they will list the stupid diets and crazy attempts at weight loss they undertook at various stages in their lives before finding MFP (and then still not necessarily succeeding).
Weight loss is tough and very few people succeed at it long term. If you were to do a follow up on the success photos threads on this site a year or two later you would find some grim statistics behind them, as grim as the stats of folks who don't keep off weight after Biggest Loser or any other big weight loss effort.
We should not be afraid of those statistics because it does not speak to us as individuals. There are people who succeed and we should strive to be among them. There are people who keep it off for years and we can be among them too. There is no point in deluding ourselves however that succeeding is a foregone conclusion.
I am doing my MBA because I want to be in the top 5% of business earners in this country. I am not put off by facing the fact that 95% of the population are not high earners and will never be.
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We can just look around the streets and see that weight loss is not easy, or, if you are in MFP, you can look at the new threads, posted daily by folks who are "back again and this time it is going to work". I have been here for four months and have found the drop off from my friends list alarming - so many people who were fired up and enthusiastic just a few months ago, disappearing without a trace, extra pounds still firmly in place.
Do we really think there are tons of blissfully happy obese people out there who have never tried any attempt at weight loss? Chat to anyone on this site- anyone - and they will list the stupid diets and crazy attempts at weight loss they undertook at various stages in their lives before finding MFP (and then still not necessarily succeeding).
Weight loss is tough and very few people succeed at it long term. If you were to do a follow up on the success photos threads on this site a year or two later you would find some grim statistics behind them, as grim as the stats of folks who don't keep off weight after Biggest Loser or any other big weight loss effort.
We should not be afraid of those statistics because it does not speak to us as individuals. There are people who succeed and we should strive to be among them. There are people who keep it off for years and we can be among them too. There is no point in deluding ourselves however that succeeding is a foregone conclusion.
I am doing my MBA because I want to be in the top 5% of business earners in this country. I am not put off by facing the fact that 95% of the population are not high earners and will never be.
I was successful on my very first attempt.0 -
We can just look around the streets and see that weight loss is not easy, or, if you are in MFP, you can look at the new threads, posted daily by folks who are "back again and this time it is going to work". I have been here for four months and have found the drop off from my friends list alarming - so many people who were fired up and enthusiastic just a few months ago, disappearing without a trace, extra pounds still firmly in place.
Do we really think there are tons of blissfully happy obese people out there who have never tried any attempt at weight loss? Chat to anyone on this site- anyone - and they will list the stupid diets and crazy attempts at weight loss they undertook at various stages in their lives before finding MFP (and then still not necessarily succeeding).
Weight loss is tough and very few people succeed at it long term. If you were to do a follow up on the success photos threads on this site a year or two later you would find some grim statistics behind them, as grim as the stats of folks who don't keep off weight after Biggest Loser or any other big weight loss effort.
We should not be afraid of those statistics because it does not speak to us as individuals. There are people who succeed and we should strive to be among them. There are people who keep it off for years and we can be among them too. There is no point in deluding ourselves however that succeeding is a foregone conclusion.
I am doing my MBA because I want to be in the top 5% of business earners in this country. I am not put off by facing the fact that 95% of the population are not high earners and will never be.
Earnings vs weight loss. An MBA doesn't guarantee top 5% of the business earners in this country. Plenty of people with MBA's are not in your elite grop. People can be extremely successful, even without a college degree. It is the determination, dedication, and diligence you use to achieve your goals that will lead you to your definition of success.
Very little in life comes without hard work and dedication, no matter the goal.0 -
DeguelloTex wrote: »
People don't try to lose weight for a variety of reasons, too. That's the core problem with this "study."peter56765 wrote: »DeguelloTex wrote: »
Would it depress you to learn that the odds of being able to paint your house are low based on the fact that a lot of people who weren't even trying to paint their houses didn't succeed in painting their houses?The OP depresses me a little but not enough to give up. Now I'm more determined than ever.
Bad analogy. People don't paint their house for a variety of reasons: 1) it doesn't need it, 2) they have vinyl siding or stain or stucco or something else, 3) they are renting. In contrast, I'd say the vast majority of people who are overweight wish that they were not overweight. The study is trying to determine if people tend to turn that wish into reality. The answer is no. Weight loss appears to be one of those areas where most people need a helping hand.
What people "wish" is separate from what people do. If someone isn't trying to lose weight, no matter how much he wishes he weren't fat, that's not relevant information for people who are trying to lose weight. That someone was fat and stayed fat provides no useful information without context. If he wasn't trying to lose weight, lack of weight loss isn't a failure.
Disagree. The study is not a weight loss study. It's a demographic study. It's like tracking how many people who live in poverty are able to rise out of it. As with weight loss, there are a variety of reasons as to why someone may or may not, but as with weight loss, it's not a good place to be and most people in that situation would prefer not to be there. This is not a "why" study, it's a demographic change/movement study. Don't read into it more than what it is saying.0 -
peter56765 wrote: »DeguelloTex wrote: »
Would it depress you to learn that the odds of being able to paint your house are low based on the fact that a lot of people who weren't even trying to paint their houses didn't succeed in painting their houses?The OP depresses me a little but not enough to give up. Now I'm more determined than ever.
Bad analogy. People don't paint their house for a variety of reasons: 1) it doesn't need it, 2) they have vinyl siding or stain or stucco or something else, 3) they are renting. In contrast, I'd say the vast majority of people who are overweight wish that they were not overweight. The study is trying to determine if people tend to turn that wish into reality. The answer is no. Weight loss appears to be one of those areas where most people need a helping hand.
The analogy is sound. The study didn't even determine if the people wished to lose weight. It merely looked at a mass of people whose medical records indicated they were obese, and looked for how many lost weight over a period of time. No determination at all of how many even tried.
Take any population attempting to achieve a goal and calculate the probability of success. That's a good metric. Throw in a much larger group that has no interest in that goal, and you'll see the number skewed much lower. That's a useless metric.
See my post above. The study is snapshot on demographic trends, not diet success. What people want is irrelevant.0 -
I started with a BMI of 38.7 (obese) and I'm now at 24.8 (normal). I'm happily abnormal 0
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:drinker: I've reached a normal weight. My highest BMI was 44 and I'm currently fluctuating between 22.3 - 22.6. :drinker:
Will I be able to maintain it is the question. I sure don't know, but I'll be $&%#£¥ if I don't try my hardest to. I've worked so hard to get to where I am and I sure as hell don't want to go back.1 -
The truth is the stats are probably pretty accurate. Even on MFP most people probably never reach their goal weight and if they do what % of those eventually gain it back? Realistically we aren't special snowflakes. It is ultimately up to each of us to beat the statistics. So you gotta ask yourself one question.... are you going to be a part of that 1% who succeeds?
I agree...
We can bury our heads in the sand...stick our fingers in our ears and go LaLaLal... the fact remains that the stats are not good.
I would rather know what I am facing so that I can go in to this with ALL the info...good and bad...to help me plan and work toward being in that small percentage that succeeds. Most go in to a diet with a plan (not always a good one) yet only a few go in to the maintenance stage with a working plan.
Yes...on MFP the odds might be better...but MFP is not the whole of society. I think we can hopefully expect a higher percentage on a weight management site.
Diet...lifestyle...whatever you want to call it...IMO...it is better to know those odds upfront.
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stevencloser wrote: »We can just look around the streets and see that weight loss is not easy, or, if you are in MFP, you can look at the new threads, posted daily by folks who are "back again and this time it is going to work". I have been here for four months and have found the drop off from my friends list alarming - so many people who were fired up and enthusiastic just a few months ago, disappearing without a trace, extra pounds still firmly in place.
Do we really think there are tons of blissfully happy obese people out there who have never tried any attempt at weight loss? Chat to anyone on this site- anyone - and they will list the stupid diets and crazy attempts at weight loss they undertook at various stages in their lives before finding MFP (and then still not necessarily succeeding).
Weight loss is tough and very few people succeed at it long term. If you were to do a follow up on the success photos threads on this site a year or two later you would find some grim statistics behind them, as grim as the stats of folks who don't keep off weight after Biggest Loser or any other big weight loss effort.
We should not be afraid of those statistics because it does not speak to us as individuals. There are people who succeed and we should strive to be among them. There are people who keep it off for years and we can be among them too. There is no point in deluding ourselves however that succeeding is a foregone conclusion.
I am doing my MBA because I want to be in the top 5% of business earners in this country. I am not put off by facing the fact that 95% of the population are not high earners and will never be.
I was successful on my very first attempt.
Your 25...hopefully you won't have to do this again. Most people believe that they will never have to do this again...yet many do have a 2nd time...a third...even a 4th time.
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stevencloser wrote: »We can just look around the streets and see that weight loss is not easy, or, if you are in MFP, you can look at the new threads, posted daily by folks who are "back again and this time it is going to work". I have been here for four months and have found the drop off from my friends list alarming - so many people who were fired up and enthusiastic just a few months ago, disappearing without a trace, extra pounds still firmly in place.
Do we really think there are tons of blissfully happy obese people out there who have never tried any attempt at weight loss? Chat to anyone on this site- anyone - and they will list the stupid diets and crazy attempts at weight loss they undertook at various stages in their lives before finding MFP (and then still not necessarily succeeding).
Weight loss is tough and very few people succeed at it long term. If you were to do a follow up on the success photos threads on this site a year or two later you would find some grim statistics behind them, as grim as the stats of folks who don't keep off weight after Biggest Loser or any other big weight loss effort.
We should not be afraid of those statistics because it does not speak to us as individuals. There are people who succeed and we should strive to be among them. There are people who keep it off for years and we can be among them too. There is no point in deluding ourselves however that succeeding is a foregone conclusion.
I am doing my MBA because I want to be in the top 5% of business earners in this country. I am not put off by facing the fact that 95% of the population are not high earners and will never be.
I was successful on my very first attempt.
Your 25...hopefully you won't have to do this again. Most people believe that they will never have to do this again...yet many do have a 2nd time...a third...even a 4th time.
Then they didn't learn anything from their previous attempts. Hopefully that poster has figured out his problem and is staying vigilant in maintenance.0
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