Study: Probability of Obese People Reaching ‘Normal’ Weight Less Than 1%

245

Replies

  • stevencloser
    stevencloser Posts: 8,911 Member
    zaxx1953 wrote: »
    BMI is a joke, BMI is a joke, BMI is a joke....

    Sing it with me now.

    I was 6" 265lbs in college and not obese....in fact to be within the "healthy" guidelines of BMI I would to have to lose ALL the body fat on my body and then lots of muscle, bone, tendons and blood.

    BMI is nothing.

    I could dunk a nerf ball with Trex arms, bench over 4 plates and had a pulse in the low 50s all while being able to put my foot to my ear.

    It is not, it is not, it is not...
    You are the exception, not the rule. Take 100, hell, a million people with your BMI and count how many of them are not fat.
  • Sued0nim
    Sued0nim Posts: 17,456 Member
    Also it's amazing how many people who believe they are outliers, approach the maximum BMI of their height/weight ratio and think actually it's not so absurd

    It's a population measure. It's a decent enough guideline for those who are way beyond the limits to have in mind, do you as an individual have to fall within the healthy range or die? No, that would be absurd...but in terms of weight loss when nobody really knows what their body will be like until they get there it works as a goal.

    My initial weight loss goal I set at a BMI of 25 to have something to aim for. Now in maintenance sit at around a BMI of 24, and focus on BF. I'm not at this weight because the measure tells me to be here but I'm here because this is how I like my body

    Like any measure use it appropriately and it's worthwhile
  • Orphia
    Orphia Posts: 7,097 Member
    Kotuliak wrote: »
    WASHINGTON — Programs like Weight Watchers and Jenny Craig are designed to help overweight and obese people shed extra pounds with the help of a support system — but a new study published in the American Journal of Public Health suggests that most obese people who don’t get some kind of weight loss surgery will never achieve a “normal” weight.
    The Centers for Disease Control classify a BMI of between 25 and 29.9 as “overweight,” anything above that as obese.
    Data for 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women from the United Kingdom were analyzed over the course of nine years, and researchers found that the annual probability of reaching a normal weight was just 1 in 210 for obese men and 1 in 124 for obese women (obese = 30.0–34.9 BMI).
    For those with morbid obesity (BMI = 40.0–44.9), those odds decreased to 1 in 1,290 for men and 1 in 677 for women.
    And, at least 50 percent of patients who managed to achieve a 5 percent weight loss were shown to have regained the weight within two years.
    “Our findings indicate that current nonsurgical obesity treatment strategies are failing to achieve sustained weight loss for the majority of obese patients,” the study says.
    “…even when treatment is accessed, evidence suggests behavioral weight loss interventions focusing on caloric restriction and increased physical activity are unlikely to yield clinically significant reductions in body weight.”

    http://www.weightymatters.ca/2015/07/new-obesity-study-from-annals-of.html

    "If I looked at 279,000 men and women for a decade and studied whether or not they qualified for the Boston Marathon, but I didn't actually look to see if they were runners, and if they were runners I didn't bother exploring what their training plans and distances were like, but instead simply looked at how many people from that 279,000 qualified for Boston, I'm guessing I'd be left with an incredibly small number.

    "And yet, that's pretty much exactly what the latest depressing weight loss study did. They followed 279,000 men and women for ten years to see what was the probability of those with obesity losing back down to "normal" weight (a BMI less than 25). They didn't exclude people who weren't trying to lose weight or who might not have wanted to lose weight. They also didn't pay any attention to the means with which those who did lose weight only to regain it lost it in the first place."

    Dumb study is dumb.
  • Sued0nim
    Sued0nim Posts: 17,456 Member
    Orphia wrote: »
    Kotuliak wrote: »
    WASHINGTON — Programs like Weight Watchers and Jenny Craig are designed to help overweight and obese people shed extra pounds with the help of a support system — but a new study published in the American Journal of Public Health suggests that most obese people who don’t get some kind of weight loss surgery will never achieve a “normal” weight.
    The Centers for Disease Control classify a BMI of between 25 and 29.9 as “overweight,” anything above that as obese.
    Data for 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women from the United Kingdom were analyzed over the course of nine years, and researchers found that the annual probability of reaching a normal weight was just 1 in 210 for obese men and 1 in 124 for obese women (obese = 30.0–34.9 BMI).
    For those with morbid obesity (BMI = 40.0–44.9), those odds decreased to 1 in 1,290 for men and 1 in 677 for women.
    And, at least 50 percent of patients who managed to achieve a 5 percent weight loss were shown to have regained the weight within two years.
    “Our findings indicate that current nonsurgical obesity treatment strategies are failing to achieve sustained weight loss for the majority of obese patients,” the study says.
    “…even when treatment is accessed, evidence suggests behavioral weight loss interventions focusing on caloric restriction and increased physical activity are unlikely to yield clinically significant reductions in body weight.”

    http://www.weightymatters.ca/2015/07/new-obesity-study-from-annals-of.html

    "If I looked at 279,000 men and women for a decade and studied whether or not they qualified for the Boston Marathon, but I didn't actually look to see if they were runners, and if they were runners I didn't bother exploring what their training plans and distances were like, but instead simply looked at how many people from that 279,000 qualified for Boston, I'm guessing I'd be left with an incredibly small number.

    "And yet, that's pretty much exactly what the latest depressing weight loss study did. They followed 279,000 men and women for ten years to see what was the probability of those with obesity losing back down to "normal" weight (a BMI less than 25). They didn't exclude people who weren't trying to lose weight or who might not have wanted to lose weight. They also didn't pay any attention to the means with which those who did lose weight only to regain it lost it in the first place."

    Dumb study is dumb.

    Have I told you lately that I love you
    Have I told you there's noone above you

    Dee dah dee
  • Orphia
    Orphia Posts: 7,097 Member
    rabbitjb wrote: »
    Orphia wrote: »
    Kotuliak wrote: »
    WASHINGTON — Programs like Weight Watchers and Jenny Craig are designed to help overweight and obese people shed extra pounds with the help of a support system — but a new study published in the American Journal of Public Health suggests that most obese people who don’t get some kind of weight loss surgery will never achieve a “normal” weight.
    The Centers for Disease Control classify a BMI of between 25 and 29.9 as “overweight,” anything above that as obese.
    Data for 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women from the United Kingdom were analyzed over the course of nine years, and researchers found that the annual probability of reaching a normal weight was just 1 in 210 for obese men and 1 in 124 for obese women (obese = 30.0–34.9 BMI).
    For those with morbid obesity (BMI = 40.0–44.9), those odds decreased to 1 in 1,290 for men and 1 in 677 for women.
    And, at least 50 percent of patients who managed to achieve a 5 percent weight loss were shown to have regained the weight within two years.
    “Our findings indicate that current nonsurgical obesity treatment strategies are failing to achieve sustained weight loss for the majority of obese patients,” the study says.
    “…even when treatment is accessed, evidence suggests behavioral weight loss interventions focusing on caloric restriction and increased physical activity are unlikely to yield clinically significant reductions in body weight.”

    http://www.weightymatters.ca/2015/07/new-obesity-study-from-annals-of.html

    "If I looked at 279,000 men and women for a decade and studied whether or not they qualified for the Boston Marathon, but I didn't actually look to see if they were runners, and if they were runners I didn't bother exploring what their training plans and distances were like, but instead simply looked at how many people from that 279,000 qualified for Boston, I'm guessing I'd be left with an incredibly small number.

    "And yet, that's pretty much exactly what the latest depressing weight loss study did. They followed 279,000 men and women for ten years to see what was the probability of those with obesity losing back down to "normal" weight (a BMI less than 25). They didn't exclude people who weren't trying to lose weight or who might not have wanted to lose weight. They also didn't pay any attention to the means with which those who did lose weight only to regain it lost it in the first place."

    Dumb study is dumb.

    Have I told you lately that I love you
    Have I told you there's noone above you

    Dee dah dee

    :)

    @rabbitjb Back at ya with big hugs!
  • barbecuesauce
    barbecuesauce Posts: 1,779 Member
    I AM ABNORMAL! FANTASTIC!
    lol

    If YOU'RE a special snowflake and I'M a special snowflake, then who's flying the plane???

    I hate studies like this because by the time the media gets done with it, it's fat logical garbage.
  • timtakel
    timtakel Posts: 50 Member
    Even if is where true, people still buy lottery tickets. If they believe they will win the lottery, they should believe they can lose weight.
  • Azurite27
    Azurite27 Posts: 554 Member
    Woo-hoo I'm a 1%'er. It's possible with dedication. The only definite is you will never change if you don't try.
  • zyxst
    zyxst Posts: 9,131 Member
    naus2ywkd0op.gif

    I'll never be a "normal" weight? May as well start eating back those 158# pronto!
    vchjtwopz6s6.gif

  • msf74
    msf74 Posts: 3,498 Member
    Orphia wrote: »

    http://www.weightymatters.ca/2015/07/new-obesity-study-from-annals-of.html

    "If I looked at 279,000 men and women for a decade and studied whether or not they qualified for the Boston Marathon, but I didn't actually look to see if they were runners, and if they were runners I didn't bother exploring what their training plans and distances were like, but instead simply looked at how many people from that 279,000 qualified for Boston, I'm guessing I'd be left with an incredibly small number.

    "And yet, that's pretty much exactly what the latest depressing weight loss study did. They followed 279,000 men and women for ten years to see what was the probability of those with obesity losing back down to "normal" weight (a BMI less than 25). They didn't exclude people who weren't trying to lose weight or who might not have wanted to lose weight. They also didn't pay any attention to the means with which those who did lose weight only to regain it lost it in the first place."

    Dumb study is dumb.

    That whole article is worth reading and a sensible look at the matter.

  • psuLemon
    psuLemon Posts: 38,137 MFP Moderator
    zaxx1953 wrote: »
    BMI is a joke, BMI is a joke, BMI is a joke....

    Sing it with me now.

    I was 6" 265lbs in college and not obese....in fact to be within the "healthy" guidelines of BMI I would to have to lose ALL the body fat on my body and then lots of muscle, bone, tendons and blood.

    BMI is nothing.

    I could dunk a nerf ball with Trex arms, bench over 4 plates and had a pulse in the low 50s all while being able to put my foot to my ear.

    So N=1 isn't good right?


    I always enjoy the saying, it's easy to be fat, but hard to be fit. If fit was the easy route, we wouldn't have a population that is ~50% overweight.
  • snowflake930
    snowflake930 Posts: 2,188 Member
    I guess I am in the "less than 1%" then. Was morbidly obese in March 2012 @ 290#.
    Reached goal weight of 130 in November of 2013 and have been maintaining since then.

    Do NOT buy into this study. You can do this with determination and diligence. Many, many people here have done it, and many, many more will accomplish it.

    Never give up, because we are all worth it!
  • DeguelloTex
    DeguelloTex Posts: 6,658 Member
    edited July 2015
    zaxx1953 wrote: »
    BMI is a joke, BMI is a joke, BMI is a joke....

    Sing it with me now.

    I was 6" 265lbs in college and not obese....in fact to be within the "healthy" guidelines of BMI I would to have to lose ALL the body fat on my body and then lots of muscle, bone, tendons and blood.

    BMI is nothing.

    I could dunk a nerf ball with Trex arms, bench over 4 plates and had a pulse in the low 50s all while being able to put my foot to my ear.
    How much of the 81 pounds you were over a healthy BMI was muscle? I mean, in addition to the muscle that would go toward making the 184 pounds of lean mass with a 0% BF that would put you at 24.9 BMI?

  • vinerie
    vinerie Posts: 234 Member
    People around here like to dismiss science. But this study echoes the results of others like it. It's scary and disheartening. But some people do lose weight. We do know that support is one of the most important factors for success, which makes sites like this so important.
  • DeguelloTex
    DeguelloTex Posts: 6,658 Member
    vinerie wrote: »
    People around here like to dismiss science. But this study echoes the results of others like it. It's scary and disheartening. But some people do lose weight. We do know that support is one of the most important factors for success, which makes sites like this so important.
    It's not scary and disheartening. It's stupidity on stilts.

    It would be like trying to show the odds of graduating college by looking at the entire population without regard for whether the people were even attending college.

    That someone who isn't even trying to lose weight fails to lose weight tells nothing -- literally nothing -- about the probability of success of someone who is.

  • 2wise4u
    2wise4u Posts: 229 Member
    The OP depresses me a little but not enough to give up. Now I'm more determined than ever.
  • DeguelloTex
    DeguelloTex Posts: 6,658 Member
    2wise4u wrote: »
    The OP depresses me a little but not enough to give up. Now I'm more determined than ever.
    Would it depress you to learn that the odds of being able to paint your house are low based on the fact that a lot of people who weren't even trying to paint their houses didn't succeed in painting their houses?

  • lemurcat12
    lemurcat12 Posts: 30,886 Member
    That someone who isn't even trying to lose weight fails to lose weight tells nothing -- literally nothing -- about the probability of success of someone who is.

    Yes, this.

    Seriously, anyone who feels bad about the study should read the weightymatters piece that was linked by Orphia above.
  • lemurcat12
    lemurcat12 Posts: 30,886 Member
    kateyb94 wrote: »
    1) Posting this here is very insensitive. While most of the people commenting obviously believe they can overcome the odds do you know how many people are going to read this and feel even crappier about themselves than they already do?

    No, it's not insensitive. People should understand the facts and challenges, which exist. The problem with this article and study is not that they point to a low chance of success, but that they are incredibly misleading, as they discuss people who aren't necessarily trying to lose weight, and as you note we don't know what those who are trying are doing. I'm sure all of us are in small minorities within the population in some way or another based on something we've chosen to do.

    However, people who are obese aren't fragile flowers either and you shouldn't assume that all obese people feel crappy about themselves or want or need your (apparent) pity. Probably lots of the people in the study are generally okay with being obese or would like to lose weight but don't prioritize it.
  • saylorkw
    saylorkw Posts: 69 Member
    As someone who is in the "morbidly obese" category on the BMI, with a starting BMI of 46.5ish, I would say that even being in the "overweight" category with a BMI of 26-27 is better than 46 even if it isn't in the "normal range". I honestly don't believe much in the BMI as it's a flawed system. Shout out to those that have gotten to their goal weight regardless of what they were told. I'm not letting any study slow down my weight loss.

    I totally agree with this post. It's not about numbers or charts or statistics. It's about changing the way we think and react to and about food. It's about getting to a place where we like ourselves again, and can feel better and and enjoy life.