The odds of long-term weight loss success

try2again

I have long been under the impression that the percentage of those who lose a significant amount of body weight and maintain it was extremely low... like <5%. I'm sure I've seen other posters use statistics like this in the forums. But today I was looking for the data, and though it sounds like it hasn't been widely studied, the info I found points to about 1 in 6 (>15%) being able to maintain at least a 10% loss long-term. I know it's still basically small, but I think it's a big difference and find it encouraging.
But why the discrepancy? Or was it just me and my own mistaken idea to begin with?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3671378/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4777230/

riffraff2112

maintaining is very tough. I knew the % of people who are able to maintain was low, but didn't think it was quite that low.
Not a surprising result to be honest but I am a little shocked that only 15% in the best case are able to do it!

try2again

riffraff2112 wrote: »

maintaining is very tough. I knew the % of people who are able to maintain was low, but didn't think it was quite that low.
Not a surprising result to be honest but I am a little shocked that only 15% in the best case are able to do it!

It sounded great compared to the 2% figure I had in my head!

NorthCascades

I don't think maintaining is very difficult. If you made it through the weight loss, now you get to eat more.

cwolfman13

I don't really think there is a definitive %, but success rate is pretty low just as a general observation. I've maintained my weight loss going on 5 years and it hasn't really been difficult...but I also made a lot of life changes when I was losing weight and lead a much healthier lifestyle now than I did before...I still eat very well for the most part and exercise regularly 5-6 days per week.

I think most people fail because they are overly focused on the weight loss process and they view goal weight as end game when in reality, it's just the starting line of the real race. People talk a good talk about changing their lifestyle, but ultimately they rarely implement such a change long term and just go back to old eating habits, stop exercising, etc.

CaliMomTeach

I want to be in that 15%! That is low though. I just found myself regaining a bit of weight (about 12 pounds from lowest weight in April) and realize it's because I stopped logging/weighing in ( think about 5 pounds was water weight from holiday eating). I told myself that I wanted to see what happened if I just didn't log or weigh in for a while. I think maintaining for me is going to mean logging/weighing constantly, which feels obsessive and time consuming. I guess it comes down to a matter of choice. If I CHOOSE to maintain, then I will. If I don't maintain my weight loss, then it's because I CHOSE not to. The realization for me is that maintaining the loss will be just as much work as losing it was. I guess I was thinking that the end goal was getting to a goal weight, but I'm seeing there is not an end goal. It is an ongoing goal to stay there.

cmriverside

#Iamthe15

try2again

NorthCascades wrote: »

I don't think maintaining is very difficult. If you made it through the weight loss, now you get to eat more.

Yes, but many approach weight loss as a short-term project and once the weight is gone, or they've achieved a significant amount of loss, they slowly (or quickly) ease back into the bad habits that got them there in the first place.

cmriverside

...and once again...who is doing this counting? No one has ever asked me in an official way 1. If I've ever lost weight before this time and 2. Even anything at all weight related.

Is this those psychologists/doomsdayers again?

dopeysmelly

I guess a lot of people just want to make only enough changes to get the weight to go without realizing that you have to change a lot more about your life than just that, if you want the weight to stay off. I am absolutely not the same person I was 5 years ago in many more ways than just my calorific intake.

try2again

cmriverside wrote: »

#Iamthe15

Even though I am still not at my goal, I've lost a total of 25%+ of my body weight & have kept it off off (with a few wobbles) or moving downward for nearly a decade

kommodevaran

The 5% is from a 1959 study (Stunkard); he has later tried to explain that this was just one study of "chronically" obese patients, it was never meant to be an universal number, and couldn't get why it has been perpetuated like that.

I'm actually more skeptical to the other number, and the definition of success. "15% being able to maintain at least a 10% loss long-term" and self-reported weight, is bordering bad science IMO; and a 10% loss when you're morbidly obese, leaves you still obese.

I think the most valuable lesson from studying weightloss, is what actually works, and not like The National Weight Control Registry presents it ("modified their food intake", breakfast, low fat diets, lots of exercise), but real, realistic, actionable stratiegies. The forums here is one of the best resources, possibly the best.

LilFoxtrot

I think with the rise of fad diets and unsustainable weight loss methods it's going to look dismal. They're not really measuring the percentage of people who are losing weight through things like CICO and regular moderate exercise.

I firmly believe that failure to maintain weight loss is often due to the initial method of weight loss itself. If the initial method isn't sustainable and healthy it's setting people up to fail.

cmriverside

try2again wrote: »

cmriverside wrote: »

#Iamthe15

Even though I am still not at my goal, I've lost a total of 25%+ of my body weight & have kept it off off (with a few wobbles) or moving downward for nearly a decade

Yeah, I don't count wobbles of five pounds or less.

When I first lost my weight in 2007-08, I gained back about 15 pounds immediately after that big loss.

I'm not doing that again. That's really demoralizing. But, there have been a couple winters where I gain about five pounds - that's just climate/winter and lifestyle in the NW. It's always gone by April.

cwolfman13

LilFoxtrot wrote: »

I think with the rise of fad diets and unsustainable weight loss methods it's going to look dismal. They're not really measuring the percentage of people who are losing weight through things like CICO and regular moderate exercise.

I firmly believe that failure to maintain weight loss is often due to the initial method of weight loss itself. If the initial method isn't sustainable and healthy it's setting people up to fail.

I've been here for over 5 years and regardless of the way people go about losing weight, most fail to maintain long term. There are tons of calorie counters here that have been here numerous times before. People are generally really bad at reinventing themselves and making long term changes to the way they go about their lives.

try2again

CaliMomTeach wrote: »

The realization for me is that maintaining the loss will be just as much work as losing it was. I guess I was thinking that the end goal was getting to a goal weight, but I'm seeing there is not an end goal. It is an ongoing goal to stay there.

This puts you so far ahead of the game!

bisky

I wonder if there is a difference of people who maintain their weight loss: people who lose weight on their own, making life style changes, logging and lose it slowly (many of MFP members) versus people who go on rapid weight loss diets.

LilFoxtrot wrote: »

I think with the rise of fad diets and unsustainable weight loss methods it's going to look dismal. They're not really measuring the percentage of people who are losing weight through things like CICO and regular moderate exercise.

I firmly believe that failure to maintain weight loss is often due to the initial method of weight loss itself. If the initial method isn't sustainable and healthy it's setting people up to fail.

LilFoxtrot, I agree with this statement. It why I have refused to give up a few favorite foods that a few friends feel are unhealthy (coffee with milk in a.m.). IF I go one a big deprivation diet, or cleansing diet, or diet excluding certain food groups I will fail. I am just giving up extra calories. I had to learn the hard way...I was sure it was too much fat or too much sugar. I realized there was no magic formula, just too many calories in. I eat a large amount of vegetables and fruits and then work around that to add protein, carbs and fats into my calories for the day.

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CSARdiver

Data is not destiny.

It doesn't matter if X % of population A does B. What matters is what you do.

try2again

kommodevaran wrote: »

I'm actually more skeptical to the other number, and the definition of success. "15% being able to maintain at least a 10% loss long-term" and self-reported weight, is bordering bad science IMO; and a 10% loss when you're morbidly obese, leaves you still obese.

I'm skeptical as well and agree that it doesn't seem terribly scientific, but at the same time, I can't imagine a way to get reliable numbers. As for the 10% loss, the study noted it was chosen "on the basis of the evidence that a loss of at least 10% consistently produce beneficial changes to health-risk factors".

sijomial

try2again wrote: »

NorthCascades wrote: »

I don't think maintaining is very difficult. If you made it through the weight loss, now you get to eat more.

Yes, but many approach weight loss as a short-term project and once the weight is gone, or they've achieved a significant amount of loss, they slowly (or quickly) ease back into the bad habits that got them there in the first place.

But that's not universal.
I got fat suddenly (major injury was the trigger) rather than through bad habits or a slow drift upwards but maintained my weight at an overweight level pretty easily.
When I really made my mind up to lose weight it for me it was just a temporary phase of weight loss (or short term project as you describe it) and then switch back to my "normal" maintenance routine but at a good weight instead of overweight.
Maintained for four years now and like @NorthCascades I find maintenance far easier simply because I can eat more.

Still not as much as I would like to eat of course but that's also normal for me.

Yes if you have bad habits change, or at least a counter balance for those habits, is required long term.

try2again

CSARdiver wrote: »

Data is not destiny.

It doesn't matter if X % of population A does B. What matters is what you do.

I would hope that no one would take a statistical percentage and use it to decide their "destiny" as it pertains to weight management, just as I would hope a person with cancer wouldn't let mortality rates dictate whether they sought treatment or not. But we are usually still interested in the numbers, and often it can provide motivation.

try2again

sijomial wrote: »

try2again wrote: »

NorthCascades wrote: »

I don't think maintaining is very difficult. If you made it through the weight loss, now you get to eat more.

Yes, but many approach weight loss as a short-term project and once the weight is gone, or they've achieved a significant amount of loss, they slowly (or quickly) ease back into the bad habits that got them there in the first place.

But that's not universal.
I got fat suddenly (major injury was the trigger) rather than through bad habits or a slow drift upwards but maintained my weight at an overweight level pretty easily.
When I really made my mind up to lose weight it for me it was just a temporary phase of weight loss (or short term project as you describe it) and then switch back to my "normal" maintenance routine but at a good weight instead of overweight.
Maintained for four years now and like @NorthCascades I find maintenance far easier simply because I can eat more.

Still not as much as I would like to eat of course but that's also normal for me.

Yes if you have bad habits change, or at least a counter balance for those habits, is required long term.

I was actually thinking about this in relation to @JerSchmare 's comment, that it has to be a virtually impossible subject to study, because people ended up overweight for different reasons and everyone comes to weight loss with a different set of mental, emotional, & physical circumstances. How does a study possibly account for all of those things? Yet the numbers still intrigue me.

dutchandkiwi

To my knowledge the percentage of people that manage to maintain a healthy weight after weightloss has some issues due method difficulty. After all if you only follow those that have been under supervision during their loss then your group will not include people that do it on their own etc etc
In the US there is a long term study going on this subject that recruits people that register als having lost and maintained iIt can be found here (US only I think) and here is an interesting meta study paper on the subject

sijomial

Personally I find the common success factors more interesting than the percentages of failed/successful dieters.
Long term commitment to regular exercise is one of them.

The trouble with the data gathered is often that people have to be motivated to register and participate which tends to skew the demographic contributing and probably means failed dieters are under reported - it's much nicer to share your victories than your failures.

try2again

sijomial wrote: »

Personally I find the common success factors more interesting than the percentages of failed/successful dieters.

Definitely more useful.

CSARdiver

try2again wrote: »

CSARdiver wrote: »

Data is not destiny.

It doesn't matter if X % of population A does B. What matters is what you do.

I would hope that no one would take a statistical percentage and use it to decide their "destiny" as it pertains to weight management, just as I would hope a person with cancer wouldn't let mortality rates dictate whether they sought treatment or not. But we are usually still interested in the numbers, and often it can provide motivation.

Many use this as destiny of defeat. A predictive excuse on why they failed.

Once the excuses go away goals are achieved.

NorthCascades

try2again wrote: »

NorthCascades wrote: »

I don't think maintaining is very difficult. If you made it through the weight loss, now you get to eat more.

Yes, but many approach weight loss as a short-term project and once the weight is gone, or they've achieved a significant amount of loss, they slowly (or quickly) ease back into the bad habits that got them there in the first place.

That's why a lot of regulars here are wary of losing weight quickly, in unsustainable ways. Weight loss should be practice for maintenance, it's a time to learn strategies for eating, maybe exercising, and structuring your life.

For example, I wouldn't want to lose weight by going keto, because I personally couldn't do low carb for the rest of my life. But, using smaller dinner plates is something I can keep up.

Maybe three point is slow and steady wins the race.

cwolfman13

try2again wrote: »

CSARdiver wrote: »

Data is not destiny.

It doesn't matter if X % of population A does B. What matters is what you do.

I would hope that no one would take a statistical percentage and use it to decide their "destiny" as it pertains to weight management, just as I would hope a person with cancer wouldn't let mortality rates dictate whether they sought treatment or not. But we are usually still interested in the numbers, and often it can provide motivation.

Unfortunately, a lot of people do...I personally don't understand the mindset of "destiny"...we are all more or less in control of the way we choose to live our lives and thus the outcome.

cmriverside

So for me, 10 years into maintenance:

I have about 20 meals I prepare myself that I know the macros and calorie amounts without doing a lot of finagling. I can log my food in less than five minutes per day. Per day.

I eat 12-13 out of 14 meals per week (usually) prepared by me.

I eat two largish meals inside an eight hour window. Some days I'll have a third meal or some snacks in between.

I exercise for an hour a minimum of three and a maximum of five times per week.

I hit my macros most of the time. I do pay attention.

I jump on the body weight scale at least twice a week and record that weight.

I can't really pare down that process above to make it any simpler. I've tried not logging food and that doesn't work for me, so it's just part of my routine now.

try2again

cwolfman13 wrote: »

try2again wrote: »

CSARdiver wrote: »

Data is not destiny.

It doesn't matter if X % of population A does B. What matters is what you do.

I would hope that no one would take a statistical percentage and use it to decide their "destiny" as it pertains to weight management, just as I would hope a person with cancer wouldn't let mortality rates dictate whether they sought treatment or not. But we are usually still interested in the numbers, and often it can provide motivation.

Unfortunately, a lot of people do...I personally don't understand the mindset of "destiny"...we are all more or less in control of the way we choose to live our lives and thus the outcome.

I guess I should have phrased it differently... I know some people are bound to do that. Just wondering if the implication was that it's a disservice to people to discuss the #s?