Data crunchers - Insights you can share?
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Unlike @yirara and @swirlybee I haven't (yet) detected any correlation between weight and cycle. 62 data points means only 2 cycles though. We'll see.
My cycle is simply based on sitting in an office or not. It's basically a 7 day cycle. Menstrual cycle: I don't really have that as I take the pill for usually about 3 months without break. That gives me quite some lovely, clean data2 -
Additionally, I started weighing daily to figure out my actual TDEE. 500+ data points yields an average TDEE of right around 2500, approximately +250 over most any sedentary maintenance calculator I've seen. Coincidentally, using UA record or my Apple watch to "record" my calorie burn during my workouts (weight lifting, approximately 1 hour/day 5-6 days per week) I usually get 500-600 calories. Lends some credence to the typical advice to eat back half of one's exercise calories.1
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I have learned that I error on the side of logging too much but it usually fixes itself after enough time. My fat loss has been fairly consistent even if it doesn't show up on the bathroom scale for weeks at a time. My TDEE was estimated too high so I have started doing the calculation myself with the appropriate activity multiplier.
My doctor put me on a diuretic which has really muddied up the water recently data-wise but I am hoping in another week or two for things to clear back up.1 -
Using Fitbit averages my TDEE is 2176. Using Libra vs. MFP diary, I lose most on weeks where my average calorie intake is 1500 to 1700. I'm also heaviest on Monday, lightest on Friday. My Libra trendline looks like rolling hills. No sharp peaks or valleys, just a gradual downward slope with an occasional bump on the weekends. Obviously I'm not as active on weekends, plus I tend to overdo it. Something to tighten up on.1
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I have been using Libra for over two years now, (about 27 months), typically weighing about 4-7x per week (with some weeks skipped due to being away from home). I am used to the trends and fluctuations now, they aren't too crazy but I find because I calorie cycle my highest weight will be after the weekends and lowest is usually Friday morning. Also if I skip one lifting session or reduce my volume my weight will drop quite significantly (about 2-3lbs) and sometimes it freaks me out, so coming back from a vacation for example I will usually come back lighter... not because I was in a deficit or anything, but because I wasn't on my program. So I always have to remember how lifting really makes me retain water and to account for that when I change my programming around.4
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@AnnPT77 any thoughts on this topic, Ms Data?
I admit to being a data geek, but I'd seen this thread, and have trouble of thinking of things that generalize to others. For sure, calculating a personal NEAT/TDEE is a useful thing, but that' s been well addressed.
About the only other things I can think of are:
* I weight train in the (rowing) off season most years. When tracking meticulously, I saw an otherwise unexplained 2-pound gain at the start of weight training (at a time when I was feeling remarkably accurate at predicting gains, losses, and fluctuations based on logged eating/exercise); and a bookend otherwise unexplained 2 pound loss at the end of weight training for that season. Makes me suspect that for some of us, whatever water weight we gain for muscle repair may not drop off with time, if the training is progressive. (Its still not worth worrying about. It's still water weight.)
* If one treats this all as a fun science fair project, logging as meticulously as possible (if that's possible without creating obsession or psychological dependence - which varies by person, with personality type), then after a few months it can be practical to predict rate of gain, loss, and water weight fluctuation pretty accurately from calorie intake and activity levels, which is (to me) a very comforting thing. It de-stresses fluctuations, and helps with assessing whether . . . um . . . unusual behavior is worth trying, or not.
* It appears to me that a really huge, very rare overconsumption will not result in nearly as much "permanent" weight gain as raw calorie intake predicts. I suspect some of this is due to subtle activity up-regulation, and some to the body simply not being able to process all those extremely unusual calories in a short time period, so relatively more get excreted. This is a guess. And I"m not at talking about a weekly or so "cheat day" . . . I'm talking about 3 or more times TDEE on one day, maybe two, on a much more rare basis - like that holiday thing. Repeating: Just a guess, though based on n=1 experience. It's playing with fire, though.6 -
Morning BW is higher next morning if my last meal was eaten out, even if calories are controlled according to plan. Higher sodium and water retention?
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