Coronavirus prep

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Replies

  • cmriverside
    cmriverside Posts: 32,392 Member
    Well. Again, I don't have TV, but I've looked at the local news online for the Seattle area.

    Between 400-500 cases confirmed in WA. 31 deaths reported. About 5,000 total tests done. Schools closed (all of them) until April 24.

    I have to go to the store tomorrow, other than that I haven't been within six feet of another human in over a week. I don't need any TP, but you better believe I'm buying some if they have any. And paper towels.

    I'm still not exactly panicked, but maybe very concerned...

    So, @juliemouse83 - am I understanding you that the whole post on your phone is a hoax?
  • earlnabby
    earlnabby Posts: 8,177 Member
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    Some places here are low on TP, but mainly we just seem to have absolutely no hand sanitizer.

    We have 32 confirmed cases in the state (but really they are just about all in my metro area), but that number is meaningless as there's such a shortage of tests so most who could be infected aren't able to be tested.

    We are up to 7 now, mostly in the Madison area but there is one confirmed in my county.
  • lightenup2016
    lightenup2016 Posts: 1,051 Member
    edited March 2020
    I'm just thinking that if there were so many "unknown" cases because of lack of testing, wouldn't we be seeing people winding up very sick in the hospitals? I don't think we are, or I am incorrect? 20% of large numbers of sick people would be obvious, I would think.

    In my state of NC, at first there was a test shortage due to CDC dropping the ball, but the state took matters into its own hands. The state has obtained test kits from other sources, and are now opening up testing to anyone who shows the symptoms and has a negative flu test.

    Depends on how long it's been circulating through the general population, as opposed to just people who caught it when they were traveling internationally. The incubation period is up to 14 days, and it wouldn't be 20% of "large numbers" at first. It's like rabbits breeding. A few infected people, each infecting a few or dozens more, depending on how much time they spend with other people, until they actually become symptomatic, and hopefully self-quarantine (or end up in the hospital). Then each of the newly infected also infecting a few or dozens more, until they in turn become symptomatic. And some people (possibly including the vast majority of exposed children) never become symptomatic, but may still be able to infect people for weeks.

    It is highly likely that for however many people who are currently sick enough to seek treatment, there are many, many additional people already infected who aren't yet symptomatic. And those people are infecting the next generation of several times more people.

    But those people who are not symptomatic would not be seeking testing, would they? I'm talking about large numbers of people sick that we don't know about because there's a shortage of tests (as mentioned above). I'm sure there are infected people who haven't shown symptoms yet, but that's a different point.

    ETA: Maybe I misunderstood, and you were saying that not many people have been tested because they're asymptomatic still. If that's the case, and I suspect it is, then in the next 4-5 days we should see a big increase of positive cases. But if the point was that it's due to a lack of testing kits in the US, then that would mean actual symptomatic patients not able to be tested, and I would think we'd start hearing about critical respiratory patients who are flu negative.

    Edited again to add that (I'm thinking about this waaaay too much!) I'm probably wrong, since as someone else pointed out, it's probably too early to see the "fallout" of many critical cases, since people can be sick for up to 2-3 weeks. Okay, enough of me here :smiley:
  • juliemouse83
    juliemouse83 Posts: 6,663 Member
    @cmriverside , yes. We have ZERO confirmed COVID-19 cases at our facility. I don’t know what tomorrow will bring, as this is so fluid, but at last check? Nothing.

    The first instance of this photo was this morning. It was shared more than twenty times by 7 pm EST. We aren’t a large community.
  • cmriverside
    cmriverside Posts: 32,392 Member
    @cmriverside , yes. We have ZERO confirmed COVID-19 cases at our facility. I don’t know what tomorrow will bring, as this is so fluid, but at last check? Nothing.

    The first instance of this photo was this morning. It was shared more than twenty times by 7 pm EST. We aren’t a large community.

    Ugh.

    People are terribad.

    Like I said earlier, social distancing is a way of life.
  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,893 Member
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    I just had a play that I was supposed to go to get cancelled. The Chicago Symphony hasn't cancelled yet, but I suspect that will be next.

    Yup, CSO has now cancelled everything for a month.

    We haven't cancelled schools yet (but for colleges going to remote learning and/or extending spring break) and one that had a confirmed diagnosis. I wouldn't be surprised if that is next. A few of my co-workers are certain they will cancel public transit soon, although it hasn't seemed less used so far.
  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,893 Member
    I'm just thinking that if there were so many "unknown" cases because of lack of testing, wouldn't we be seeing people winding up very sick in the hospitals? I don't think we are, or I am incorrect? 20% of large numbers of sick people would be obvious, I would think.

    In my state of NC, at first there was a test shortage due to CDC dropping the ball, but the state took matters into its own hands. The state has obtained test kits from other sources, and are now opening up testing to anyone who shows the symptoms and has a negative flu test.

    Where is your state getting these tests? Because my state has been trying to test but lacks the ability to do so. I am skeptical that anyone in the US has enough tests to test everyone who should be tested.

    Most cases are NBD, but they represent infection vectors and the fear is ending up in the position Italy is, or worse.
  • lightenup2016
    lightenup2016 Posts: 1,051 Member
    edited March 2020
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    I'm just thinking that if there were so many "unknown" cases because of lack of testing, wouldn't we be seeing people winding up very sick in the hospitals? I don't think we are, or I am incorrect? 20% of large numbers of sick people would be obvious, I would think.

    In my state of NC, at first there was a test shortage due to CDC dropping the ball, but the state took matters into its own hands. The state has obtained test kits from other sources, and are now opening up testing to anyone who shows the symptoms and has a negative flu test.

    Where is your state getting these tests? Because my state has been trying to test but lacks the ability to do so. I am skeptical that anyone in the US has enough tests to test everyone who should be tested.

    Most cases are NBD, but they represent infection vectors and the fear is ending up in the position Italy is, or worse.

    https://www.wbtv.com/2020/03/12/north-carolina-works-around-federal-government-find-other-methods-testing-coronavirus/

    also from the link below: "North Carolina officials have complained of shortages for more than a week, and Gov. Roy Cooper said Thursday that the state never received materials promised by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, "so we have begun working other avenues."

    "We are doing everything we possibly can to make sure everyone who should get a test gets tested," Cooper said.

    Cohen said the state lab has capacity to test about 700 people, but more partners have come online, including Atrium Health, Duke University and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. LabCorp, a private testing lab based in Burlington, said Thursday that it can do several thousand tests a day, nationally, and that its adding new equipment and staff.

    Turnaround time is typically three to four days, a company spokeswoman said."

    https://www.wral.com/nc-widens-coronavirus-testing-criteria/19009212/
  • juliemouse83
    juliemouse83 Posts: 6,663 Member
    I heard on the local radio on the way home that Live Nation is rescheduling concerts for the next month or so. I am wholeheartedly behind this.
  • lynn_glenmont
    lynn_glenmont Posts: 9,460 Member
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    I'm just thinking that if there were so many "unknown" cases because of lack of testing, wouldn't we be seeing people winding up very sick in the hospitals? I don't think we are, or I am incorrect? 20% of large numbers of sick people would be obvious, I would think.

    In my state of NC, at first there was a test shortage due to CDC dropping the ball, but the state took matters into its own hands. The state has obtained test kits from other sources, and are now opening up testing to anyone who shows the symptoms and has a negative flu test.

    Where is your state getting these tests? Because my state has been trying to test but lacks the ability to do so. I am skeptical that anyone in the US has enough tests to test everyone who should be tested.

    Most cases are NBD, but they represent infection vectors and the fear is ending up in the position Italy is, or worse.

    https://www.wbtv.com/2020/03/12/north-carolina-works-around-federal-government-find-other-methods-testing-coronavirus/

    The article says they don't have enough of the extractor agent and they're "looking" for other sources. It also says there's a lab that has developed another way of testing that doesn't require that extractor agent, but that lab is "stretched thin" as well.

    TL;DR: the actual news story doesn't support the headline in the URL.
  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,893 Member
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    I'm just thinking that if there were so many "unknown" cases because of lack of testing, wouldn't we be seeing people winding up very sick in the hospitals? I don't think we are, or I am incorrect? 20% of large numbers of sick people would be obvious, I would think.

    In my state of NC, at first there was a test shortage due to CDC dropping the ball, but the state took matters into its own hands. The state has obtained test kits from other sources, and are now opening up testing to anyone who shows the symptoms and has a negative flu test.

    Where is your state getting these tests? Because my state has been trying to test but lacks the ability to do so. I am skeptical that anyone in the US has enough tests to test everyone who should be tested.

    Most cases are NBD, but they represent infection vectors and the fear is ending up in the position Italy is, or worse.

    https://www.wbtv.com/2020/03/12/north-carolina-works-around-federal-government-find-other-methods-testing-coronavirus/

    Looks like they are trying, but nothing confirmed yet.

  • lightenup2016
    lightenup2016 Posts: 1,051 Member
    edited March 2020
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    I'm just thinking that if there were so many "unknown" cases because of lack of testing, wouldn't we be seeing people winding up very sick in the hospitals? I don't think we are, or I am incorrect? 20% of large numbers of sick people would be obvious, I would think.

    In my state of NC, at first there was a test shortage due to CDC dropping the ball, but the state took matters into its own hands. The state has obtained test kits from other sources, and are now opening up testing to anyone who shows the symptoms and has a negative flu test.

    Where is your state getting these tests? Because my state has been trying to test but lacks the ability to do so. I am skeptical that anyone in the US has enough tests to test everyone who should be tested.

    Most cases are NBD, but they represent infection vectors and the fear is ending up in the position Italy is, or worse.

    https://www.wbtv.com/2020/03/12/north-carolina-works-around-federal-government-find-other-methods-testing-coronavirus/

    The article says they don't have enough of the extractor agent and they're "looking" for other sources. It also says there's a lab that has developed another way of testing that doesn't require that extractor agent, but that lab is "stretched thin" as well.

    TL;DR: the actual news story doesn't support the headline in the URL.

    I saw that too, and I edited my above post to include another headline. It says Labcorp can do several thousand tests a day. I dunno...

    https://www.wral.com/nc-widens-coronavirus-testing-criteria/19009212/
  • YellowD0gs
    YellowD0gs Posts: 693 Member
    I'm just thinking that if there were so many "unknown" cases because of lack of testing, wouldn't we be seeing people winding up very sick in the hospitals? I don't think we are, or I am incorrect? 20% of large numbers of sick people would be obvious, I would think.

    Tip of the iceberg at this time. But KS had it's first death...from a previously undiagnosed patient. And this is with a very low number of known cases.

    https://www.wibw.com/content/news/Wyandotte-County-man-has-died-from-the-coronavirus-state-emergency-declared-568755811.html
  • AnnPT77
    AnnPT77 Posts: 25,293 Member
    @cmriverside , yes. We have ZERO confirmed COVID-19 cases at our facility. I don’t know what tomorrow will bring, as this is so fluid, but at last check? Nothing.

    The first instance of this photo was this morning. It was shared more than twenty times by 7 pm EST. We aren’t a large community.

    Ugh.

    People are terribad.

    Like I said earlier, social distancing is a way of life.

    Apparently some folks think it would be fun to create a panicked effort for everyone in New York City to try to get off the island all at once. I saw a story on the Washington Post site about NYC officials, including the mayor, pleading with people to stop spreading rumors on social media that the city is shutting down all the bridges and tunnels.

    Yeah. Some people are horrific.

    This, too, is an example of contagion: Memetic contagion.

    Some nefarious person(s) - troll(s) - create the idea and its "evidence" (however lame). People who are are susceptible spread it, possibly exponentially, potentially generating a memetic epidemic analogous to a physical one. (Witness the COVID-infected toilet paper nonsense earlier: Created by a somewhat mysterious fake news site that - according to Snopes - doesn't even take the step of branding itself a "satire" site in its fine print, then spread by gullible people who fall for it and repost without fact-checking.) Should people fact check? Sure. Do the people doing the spreading all have the wherewithal to realize and do that? Hmm. Sometimes.

    This kind of idiocy has been happening since before social media, but social media supercharges it.

    The creators are horrific. Those who spread it are mostly just vulnerable to the creators' chicanery, and manipulated.
  • T1DCarnivoreRunner
    T1DCarnivoreRunner Posts: 11,468 Member
    edited March 2020
    Psychgrrl wrote: »
    jseams1234 wrote: »
    ekim2016 wrote: »
    Italy in bad shape. Over 600 dead and over 10k active cases. Hospitals stopped all operations / procedures and overflowing caring for covid patients. Bad scene! We need to be vigilant and people need to stop poo pooing claiming it's just no worse than a regular flu blah blah it is killing people globally.

    The regular flu kills people globally

    We have the regular flu every year in Italy--it's not on this scale.

    https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week

    This was 2019/2020. Almost 3 Million cases reported by Jan 19 and half a million additional in just one week. At the time of the report deaths were approaching 300. I'm not downplaying the dangers of COVID-19 but the only difference in scale (the flu was worse) is mostly in the response to the outbreak.

    With this kind of logic don't you think it's strange that the country didn't go into quarantine in January? The Northern part of Italy is now begging the government to shut down public transportation and all shops and stores that are non-essential. I've seen doctors and nurses crying on TV and begging people to stay home and follow government guidelines. If you feel better believing that this is just a flu then good for you.

    For people that want to slow the progression of the virus: no non-essential travel (yes, cancel those vacations), stay away from crowded places, if you go out, wash your hands as soon as you enter your home, keep a distance when meeting and greeting people, avoid touching people, be sensible, do what you need to and look around and see if you can help elderly or infirm by shopping for them and keeping in touch by phone so they don't feel abandoned.

    This will pass, but please don't tell people that it's "just the flu" and go about business as usual. I've seen what happens when you do that. Stay safe people.

    It's not "just the flu," however I am concerned the responses are promoting panic over preparedness.

    In the US this so far this flu season:
    • 34 million illnesses
    • 350,000 hospitalizations
    • 20,000 deaths

    Realistically, we should (all) exercise more caution during flu season. And if this is how we get there, I am happy for the increased awareness of how easily viruses can be passed. However, where we should be promoting calm and rationality, as well as respect for our more vulnerable citizens, I instead see panic. Such as the doctors and nurses crying on TV mentioned above. How does health officials panic-sobbing help keep citizens calm and following procedures meant to help keep everyone safe? It seems akin to yelling fire in a crowded theater instead of asking folks to get up and quickly proceed to the nearest exit.

    I feel like you don’t get what’s happening in Italy right now. Doctors are having to decide who lives and who to just let die because there isn’t enough equipment to go around. One specific example I was given - two otherwise healthy 40 year olds need to be on a respirator, only one respirator, so since one of the 40 year olds has two kids, he gets to keep breathing and the other guy doesn’t. Crying about having to watch people in your care die without helping them is not “panic sobbing,” it’s called grief.

    Is that a real example? Because if they're deciding between two healthy 40-year-olds, that suggests they've already given up on caring for most of the folks who are 50+.

    That was in an opinion piece written with the clear intent to trigger emotions rather than share facts. Just that the healthcare worker even knows enough about the patients to be aware of the number of kids each patient has is an indication that they are not very busy.

    ETA: Here it is: https://www.newsweek.com/young-unafraid-coronavirus-pandemic-good-you-now-stop-killing-people-opinion-1491797