Weird MFP weight prediction never works :)

Stormchaser123

Lost about 22 lbs with app
Recently been doing average 2000-2200 overall, but each night my app says I will weigh x lbs in 5 weeks two years later!!!!!

I am attempting recomp so happy that I am staying the same weight give or take. I am trying to slowly loose fat and repair muscle.

So I just keep my calories about 2200. When on 1800 it drops off me super fast and I look dreadful.

Thing is I am still 27% bf according to a bodpod.
My apple watch says I am burning 1900 at rest.
My apparent TDEE from the bod pod is way higher its like 2345 or something!!! (Immediate man boob territory)

Keeping my protein about 166 and carbs about 150-180.

I am 195 in the am 200 pm - 52 train every couple of days full body.

Side note: I get up late some mornings say 11am and go to bed about 10pm but most humans are awake much longer. On those days I am for 1900-2000 to be on safe side.

Any input however small deliciously welcome.

sijomial

Not seeing if there is a problem to fix as you seem to want to maintain and have found your apparent calorie intake level to do that?

The prediction isn't weird, it's just very simplistic and trying to predict a long term outcome from a single day and based on an assumption you are both average plus a big bunch of unverified estimates.

Everything you mention is an estimate and often not good ones plus the big estimating variable is people's food logging. Even if all the Apple numbers and/or MyFitnessPal goal set up was accurate then inaccurate calorie intake would skew everything.

After a few weeks of consistent logging my variation from expectations was about 1000cals a week so I simply adjusted accordingly and lost at my desired rate.

Not seeing how BodPod can provide a TDEE estimate - it's just bouncing air off you and has no sense of your activity and exercise. There are some TDEE calculations that take (estimated!) body fat percentage into account but that's not the Bodpod doing that. 2,345 seems rather low for someone your size.

AnnPT77

The "in 5 weeks" thing is a meaningless cartoon. Who lives in exactly the same way, every day, for 5 whole weeks (among other obvious problems with it)? Even if we log the same stuff, the reality is inevitably different.

Overall, how accurate MFP's calorie goals and projections are for you is more an outcome of how average you are for your demographic, and how precise your intake/activity logging is. (IMO our logging can't be "accurate", strictly, because it's all estimates . . . but how we do it can yield much better or worse estimates. Even your Apple watch and the Bodpod are just estimating, not measuring)

I'm with sijomial, 2345 seems low for someone your size, but I guess it's possible if you're older and very inactive other than the strength training. (It's about what I eat to maintain weight at 5'5", weight mid-120s pounds, 66 y/o, and female . . . but I admit I'm mysteriously a good li'l ol' calorie burner for my demographic.)

It also seems odd to me that for you at 1800 "it drops off super fast", but 2345 would be "immediate man boob territory". (It makes me wonder if you over-react to next day or so scale changes from eating differently, which are mostly about water weight, frankly.) From 2345 to 1800 is a swing of just 545 calories, which ought to translate to a weight loss rate difference of barely over one pound a week, which is meaningful but doesn't seem like it would be the difference between "super fast" loss and "immediate man boobs", though I admit there's subjectivity in saying that.

To manage your weight, it seems like you'd know how to eat, with your current logging practices, to lose or maintain weight, based on your results to date. If you feel like your weight is OK, but you want less body fat at that weight, then recomposition is a reasonable route. More info here, in case you haven't seen it.

https://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/10177803/recomposition-maintaining-weight-while-losing-fat

I see no sense in which the "in 5 weeks" thing is a useful tool, in your efforts. Your experiential data, from logging, ought to be sufficient to make calorie intake plans for going forward.

As an aside, if you want to burn more calories (optional), what's up with the long sleep times? Is there a health/wellness issue? Those are rhetorical questions, but daily life activity, even humdrum things, can make a real contribution to average TDEE over time.

Best wishes!

Stormchaser123

Great posts. I check the link. Thanks.
Very eloquent and considered.

Feeling rough today watch says 1700 resting, I have eaten 1659. Woke up around 11 bed now 1030pm. I guess the watch has helped a bit, no point over eating if you are not active.

I get like this, usual suspects. Depression, anxiety meds COPD meds, and a weird profession, not much work about self employed, covid doesn’t help and the freezing cold. The meds do say possible boob on both paroxetine and flutiform inhalers.

390 day tracking and I hear u on accuracy, its all a silly game. Especially with cross fitter buddies 4 day weekers and 2 dog walks a dayers packing on muscle and don’t even know what protein they are eating.

That said they are ten years younger no meds no mental issues.

The app and garage no gym has been amazing tbf. Id love to have the energy to train AND move about housework dog walks etc.

But since 2000 minimum and moving as much as poss and slowing down progressions in favour of recovery and consistency is great, I look ok. And it enables way less bed days and infections. I suppose 2300-2400 would be about right for a normo. Hence the idea of a bulk is not for me - taxes cns and age issues.

390 days of weighing gets a bit much but I am closer to working out how my body reacts.