MFP weightloss predictions unrealistic?

StrongHealthyPowerful

Has anyone else found that the "if you eat like this every day you'll weigh ____ in five weeks" predictions tend to be a bit... optimistic? I know I may not be the most hyper accurate logger (ie I don't own a food scale), but it usually seems a bit unrealistic. Has anyone else found this to be true. MFP is working fine for me, in fact I reached my weightloss goal today (yeah!) though I may reset it five pounds lighter. We'll see. I just wanted to know if others had a similar feeling...

Kalikel

I pay them no attention. They don't seem realistic to me.

leggup

When I first started I logged religiously and ate exactly up to the calories allotted for the day. I lost weight pretty much in line with the "if every day..." predictions. Now that I have less to lose (plus a diet bet that I'm a part of), has me eating way fewer calories. And eating back smaller percentages of my exercise calories.

Honestly, I turned off the "notify my news feed that I've completed my diary for the day" about 4 months ago. I no longer bother hitting "complete diary." It's complete when I'm done logging everything.

Fishshtick

They are very approximate and are sometimes over or under estimates early on. They become overestimates for most people as their weight loss proceeds.

sakuya3834

Honestly, I turned off the "notify my news feed that I've completed my diary for the day" about 4 months ago.

Wow, I never knew you could do this.

chelseascounter

I think they're there to just motivate some people. I don't think the prediction is true at all.

Liftng4Lis

If I listened to that I would have melted away by now. Does't even come close to being correct in my case.

MysteriousDreamer

Honestly, I turned off the "notify my news feed that I've completed my diary for the day" about 4 months ago.

Wow, I never knew you could do this.

How do you do that?!?

SparrowGal2014

Totally OPTIMISTIC! It's a mathematical equation that my make sense if you're Rocky! Lol

socalkay

CONGRATULATIONS on reaching your weight loss goal!!!! You are awesomeness personified!!

caracrawford1

For me its an underestimate. But then again, I've never eaten all the allotted calories and I workout a lot. Havnt bothered to update my ticker in a month, but I'm beyond the estimate from five weeks ago

ksearles625

It's always been pretty accurate for me. I love it! I remember when I was in the 200's and it finally started showing me as being in the 190's it was surreal to not see that projected # to be 200-something. It made me cry hahaha

StrongHealthyPowerful

Good to know I'm not the only one who feels this way, although props to those of you out there who have found it to be accurate! Obviously you're kicking *kitten*.

sarafischbach9

I wouldn't pay too much attention to that. I found when I began losing weight, it was more in align with the predictions. But as time went on, it became more overestimates. You reach your goals when you reach them.

There are a lot of variables anyway... like underestimate or overestimation of exercise/calories burned and calories consumed, a woman's time of the month, water retention, etc etc that actually effects what you weigh in on a certain day.

FitOldMomma

The only time it seems unrealistic to me is on the days I do my swim workouts and don't eat back the calories. When I complete my entries for that day it tells me I'll be almost 20 pounds lighter in 5 weeks, lol!
MFP over estimates that I've burned 1300+ calories during my 2 hours of lap swim and water aerobics.

FitOldMomma

Hey....congratulations on reaching your goal today! That is awesome!

stephanieluvspb

Mine seems to be accurate. My calories are set for me to lose 1 pound a week so when I stay within my calorie goals it tells me I will weigh 5 pounds less in 5 weeks which I usually do

hearthwood

I like to read the in 5 weeks, you'll weigh this, it keeps me motivated, but as far as being spot on, it isn't.

zenhiker2014

If every day really were like the current day - in other words if you hit the same deficit day in and day out - it would be accurate. It''s just math. Most people don't hit exactly the same deficit every day so actual results vary. I guess you could say it's unrealistic since it's based on consistency, but then again, it's just intended to motivate us and they clearly say YMMV.

shadow2soul

Well the past couple of weeks, if I closed it out, mine would have said I was going to gain weight. :laugh:

shabaity

its a fairly accurate for me but i tend to drop weight really easy

jorda13456

I find it pretty accurate, I did say I was going to weight 165 in a month and a month has gone by and I just happen to weigh 165 .

leggup

Honestly, I turned off the "notify my news feed that I've completed my diary for the day" about 4 months ago.

Wow, I never knew you could do this.

How do you do that?!?

http://www.myfitnesspal.com/account/news_feed_settings

Debbie4446

Yes I sure do agree...It depends on how you log that day. If you log less than allotted calories or more than your allotted calories. It is very unrealistic :noway:

dammitjanet0161

Pretty unrealistic, but can be quite amusing if your intake varies day to day because you pay more attention to your weekly average.

One day last week I was using the phone app and managed to hit the complete button by mistake for the following day before even logging any food for that day. MFP still told me what I would weigh in 5 weeks' time - so now I know that if I ate nothing at all for 5 weeks I would weigh about 20lbs less...

kitticus15

I ate exactly the same for 2 days with no exercise but the little prediction box told me 2 different weights, after that I stopped taking notice...

robin52077

if you log less calories or more calories than your goal, the number will be way off, but the number is not "unrealistic", it is based on MATH. If you "eat like this EVERY DAY, in 5 weeks you will weigh..."

this means if you log a low day and click it, it runs the numbers based on that amount of calories every day for 5 weeks, or if you eat OVER your calories, it can show you gain weight in 5 weeks, because its based on eating that SAME EXACT AMOUNT every day.

It is only a "fun fact" and a cute little thing that some people like to click for shits and giggles, it is in no way meant to be accurate or used as a tool to judge your progress.

cincysweetheart

I get a big kick of seeing what MFP predictions are every day. It motivates me. But at the same time… I realize they are only "accurate" if EVERY day was exactly like that day (every day my calorie intake and burn was exactly the same and that everyday I weighed the exact same amount). And that accuracy also presumes that my food logs and and calorie burns are 100% accurate. So, while I love seeing their number, but it's not like I hold any degree of confidence by it or really pay any real attention to it. It's not like I'm marking my calendar and every time I get to the "5 week" mark I compare my results to whatever MFP told me it would be.

pammyd76

MFP is working fine for me, in fact I reached my weightloss goal today (yeah!) though I may reset it five pounds lighter. We'll see. I just wanted to know if others had a similar feeling...

Haha - I must learn how to do this!! But, YAY!!! and Woohoo!!! Congratulations on reaching your goal!!!

brevislux

I found it to be pretty accurate.

WalkingAlong

if you log less calories or more calories than your goal, the number will be way off, but the number is not "unrealistic", it is based on MATH. If you "eat like this EVERY DAY, in 5 weeks you will weigh..."

Right. So it'd theoretically be correct assuming these things:

1- You ate that amount every day for 5 weeks.
2- Your deficit logged is accurate (so your intake tracking is accurate and your burn estimates are accurate)
3- You lose only fat, no significant water gain/loss (or other)