Would you eat more or less?

I'm going to attempt to make this short and sweet but I doubt it will work .

First, stats. 5'6", CW 209lbs and 43% BF, 32 year old female. GW 150lbs or about 25-27% BF (this will be flexible but in that general area). I've had my RMR tested and while I don't remember the exact number, I was told it was "above average," and I have no thyroid or other medical issues.

I've been at this for almost a year, but on and off in that time, and I've struggled quite a bit. I've really been focused for the last 8 weeks, so I have 8 weeks of good data.

During that time I've eaten an average of 1489 calories per day, ranging anywhere from 840 to 2160 (the extremes are rare, most days are between 1400 and 1600). I make probably 85% of my meals at home (occasional restaurant meals are a necessary evil of my life) and weigh/measure everything I possibly can, and I feel good about my logging accuracy overall. Macros are set at 25% carbs/25% protein/50% fats (I'm not shooting for low carb or ketosis or anything, though I did try that briefly; a lower carb goal just helps me keep mindless snacking in check) and meet those pretty well for the most part. I drink plenty of water.

I've also burned an average of 2497 calories per day per my Fitbit. I work out 5 times per week (occasionally I miss one), lifting "heavy" to the best of my ability using resistance machines (working my way up to free weights but joint issues require that I have professional help starting out, so I'm saving up $ for that) and then mostly treadmill walking or elliptical as a bit of cardio, plus one high-calorie burn cardio class per week.

So, that puts me at an average daily deficit of 1008 calories. One would assume that in 8 weeks I would have lost about 16lbs, but I've only lost 9, so just barely over half of what I'd expect, even including beginners' water weight losses. With 60-70lbs to lose, over 40% BF, and just starting out I feel like my body should be able to handle a larger deficit (I had/have every intention of decreasing my deficit as I go), so 2lbs/week felt appropriate for now. Based on what I've actually lost, you could assume that my TDEE is not 2497 as calculated by my Fitbit but actually 2230 and I should decrease my calorie intake even further to 1250 or so. OR, you could assume that since I'm eating at about calculated TDEE -40% that I'm not eating enough and I should up my goal to 1750-1850 or so.

It's obvious I need to make a change. I'm willing/planning to give whatever approach I pick at least 4-6 weeks to really see the results. Which direction would you go first? (I think I know the answer I'm going to get, I just need a little validation.)