Are your five-week predictions generally accurate?

obscuremusicreference
obscuremusicreference Posts: 1,320 Member
in Health and Weight Loss
My five-week prediction has been in a three- or four-pound range every night and since I have visitors coming in five weeks, I really really want it to be true. But I don't see how I could lose 16-20 pounds in that time! That number seems pretty high, even if I have been doing lots of cardio and limiting my calories.

Have your predictions been true, generally? Do you track them?
«1

Replies

  • glevinso
    glevinso Posts: 1,895 Member
    It is a useless extrapolation based upon a single datum. Simply ignore it.
  • TimothyFish
    TimothyFish Posts: 4,925 Member
    A better expectation is 5-10 pounds over five weeks. The five-week prediction just gives you an idea of how far off of your calorie goal you are for the day. Seeing it as a weight makes it easier to comprehend.
  • segacs
    segacs Posts: 4,599 Member
    TimothyFish wrote: »
    A better expectation is 5-10 pounds over five weeks.

    That's only true for people who are losing 1-2 pounds per week. It really varies. My deficit gives me about a 0.5 pound per week goal.

    But no, I don't pay any attention to MFP's data. It's useless and not based on any kind of trend data.

    One app that I use and like is Libra for Android. It calculates a 7- and 14-day moving average and predicts a trendline that can give you a better idea of your true pace, despite fluctuations.
  • malibu927
    malibu927 Posts: 17,562 Member
    If it's telling you you can lose 16-20 pounds in five weeks, then you must not be eating enough, since that comes close to 4 pounds loss per week. Make sure you're eating back your exercise calories so your body doesn't burn out.

    And no, mine isn't accurate at all.
  • cwolfman13
    cwolfman13 Posts: 41,865 Member
    very rarely is today just like yesterday or tomorrow just like today....
  • janiceclark08
    janiceclark08 Posts: 1,341 Member
    It has not been accurate for me ever.
  • Snip8241
    Snip8241 Posts: 767 Member
    Heck no.....never!
  • srsly_sarah
    srsly_sarah Posts: 42 Member
    Mine is not accurate because I'm not good at logging my workouts. I usually don't log them since I don't bother to wear my heart rate monitor most of the time.
  • Debbjones
    Debbjones Posts: 278 Member
    They are right on target for me and have been on target for well over a year.

    All depends upon your eating habits. I tend to eat the same foods by choice and seldom deviate in my total calorie consumption... of course the statistical average will work for me. Since calorie consumption is the largest factor in weight gain/loss... the numbers appear to work.
  • Me2FitMe
    Me2FitMe Posts: 1,285 Member
    nope... neva!!
  • mizzbugsy
    mizzbugsy Posts: 40 Member
    I wish!! When I first started I saw some crazy number and my heart leapt and my pulse raced! I was so excited I wrote it in my calendar! That day came and went, I was very close, but not there. It took another week to meet my "5 week" goal. Bummer...
  • CharlieBeansmomTracey
    CharlieBeansmomTracey Posts: 7,682 Member
    mine is set to lose 1.5 lbs a week and most weeks I lose half that. but I did have 2 weeks where I lost 2-2 1/2 lbs a week.now Im down to 1lb a week average. Im not complaining though.I think its just an estimation because,everyone is different and some will lose that,some wont. just be proud of what you do lose
  • runningforthetrain
    runningforthetrain Posts: 1,037 Member
    janiceclark08 wrote: »
    It has not been accurate for me ever.

    ^Me neither. Not even close.
  • Branstin
    Branstin Posts: 2,320 Member
    edited November 2014
    I don't complete mine because it is not accurate. For example, it does not account for water weight from high sodium or TOM. Whatever I weigh 5 weeks from now is what I will weigh. As long as the weight comes off, I don't care if it takes 5 or 10 weeks.
  • april32many
    april32many Posts: 30
    OMG, NO way! I'm losing no where near the rate that thing tells me I should. I'd be a happy girl indeed if that was the least bit accurate.
  • CGreen177
    CGreen177 Posts: 45 Member
    oh ... now i just had to enter all my data into Libra :'( Apparently my 'Xmas goal' is currently more likely to be reached in February!! (I only have 3 weeks of data, so plenty of room for error I think) - and my 5 week goal, I take with a VERY large pinch of salt!
  • hortensehildegarde
    hortensehildegarde Posts: 592 Member
    mine either predict way less than I will actually lose or way more than I will actually gain, but my intake numbers are all over the place and not only is every day not "like today" there is up to a 3000 calorie swing so they are especially useless for me.
  • jenilla1
    jenilla1 Posts: 11,118 Member
    Hmmm...This is really strange to see these comments, because when I was losing, it was really close to the predictions over time. I was set to 0.5 pounds a week. I didn't always lose every week, some weeks I lost extra, but at the end of the five week period, I'd be about where they said I'd be. Maybe that's because I kept my numbers so consistently at goal every day over long periods?

    Or else I guess I'm just an anomaly, because most everything on MFP has worked like a charm for me, including maintenance (I've been at goal for over three years now, only fluctuating a pound or two during TOM in all this time.) (*)
  • arrrrjt
    arrrrjt Posts: 245 Member
    No, because I use the TDEE method.
  • mitch16
    mitch16 Posts: 2,113 Member
    No.

    I wish they would add some better functionality to it though. For one thing, I hate that it's daily--one good day, you're down, but one bad day, and you're suddenly on a weight-gaining trajectory. I would like to see the ability to have it look at the floating average over, say, the course of a week. I would also love to be able to track it--if today it says that in 5 weeks I will weigh XXX lbs, then 5 weeks down the road when I weigh myself I would like for it to 'remember' that number just so that I can see the trends. (Yeah, I'm kind of a data analytics nerd...)
  • indianwin2001
    indianwin2001 Posts: 296 Member
    arrrrjt wrote: »
    No, because I use the TDEE method.

    ^^THIS^^
  • DeannaLynnPerkins
    DeannaLynnPerkins Posts: 41 Member
    Is there any way to turn that stupid prediction off?? It's annoying because it's never accurate for me either. I'd honestly rather not see it at all.
  • MonicaA2013
    MonicaA2013 Posts: 753 Member
    It would only be accurate if you eat and exercise the same for the 5 week period. If you vary to far from the days activities then it will change the 5 wk. results. Mine have not been very accurate because of that reason. I am not on a regimented diet or exercise schedule so my days are ALWAYS different.
  • segacs
    segacs Posts: 4,599 Member
    DeannaLynnPerkins wrote: »
    Is there any way to turn that stupid prediction off?? It's annoying because it's never accurate for me either. I'd honestly rather not see it at all.

    Just don't "complete" your calories for the day and you'll never see it.
  • Edie30
    Edie30 Posts: 216
    Nah lol! I ignore that :-)
  • TimothyFish
    TimothyFish Posts: 4,925 Member
    arrrrjt wrote: »
    No, because I use the TDEE method.
    How does that make any difference? Your calorie deficit is the same no matter what method you use.
  • arditarose
    arditarose Posts: 15,573 Member
    TimothyFish wrote: »
    arrrrjt wrote: »
    No, because I use the TDEE method.
    How does that make any difference? Your calorie deficit is the same no matter what method you use.

    Not when you change your calories to your TDEE in MFP. Your exercise is already taken into account so if you don't log your exercise, MFP thinks you're eating above the deficit it gives you.
  • kahulalui
    kahulalui Posts: 33
    no
  • libbydoodle11
    libbydoodle11 Posts: 1,351 Member
    I don't keep track of them. Mine usually reflect something different each day.
  • Mudler
    Mudler Posts: 45 Member
    I suppose the "if everyday was like today" statement makes it accurate but no 2 days are the same. Everyday isn't like today, ever!

Categories