Are your five-week predictions generally accurate?

rererangi03

i did hope it was accurate at 1kg per week but i lost 4 kg in 6 days ? i try to hit my 1250 - one day in the last week i would have went way way over like 3000 but then another day i struggled to get in 900 ( i saved my cals for dinner as i do cos im hungrier then- then ate a cup of chicken 2 cups of fried cabbage and two boiled eggs - i was ment to eat 15 mussels and a yogurt before hitting the hay but i just couldn't i was full as a bull perhaps as time progresses it might tip the other way ? who knows - as long as im loosing something im happy - i guess if and when i reach the stage i dont loose it will just mean i need to bump up the physical activity

LAWoman72

As far as prediction accuracy, mine may as well say "Travel is in your future" or "You will soon be meeting old friends."

Are you at the very beginning of your weight loss? Sometimes in the beginning you lose quite a bit all at once. It slows down after that. Not for everyone, but definitely for some people.

I wouldn't worry about one 900-calorie day...you're adjusting to a new way of eating...it's very likely you'll eat closer to your goal as things even out. As far as not losing, don't even worry about that yet, or I wouldn't anyway!

snoringcat

Mudler wrote: »

I suppose the "if everyday was like today" statement makes it accurate but no 2 days are the same. Everyday isn't like today, ever!

^^This^^ (for me anyway, whose days vary quite a bit!)

Liftng4Lis

Not yet, but I've only been here for 6 months, so its going to happen any day!

kikontx

mitch16 wrote: »

No.

I wish they would add some better functionality to it though. For one thing, I hate that it's daily--one good day, you're down, but one bad day, and you're suddenly on a weight-gaining trajectory. I would like to see the ability to have it look at the floating average over, say, the course of a week. I would also love to be able to track it--if today it says that in 5 weeks I will weigh XXX lbs, then 5 weeks down the road when I weigh myself I would like for it to 'remember' that number just so that I can see the trends. (Yeah, I'm kind of a data analytics nerd...)

I do this by tracking it in a spreadsheet because I was curious about the trends.

Also, the number is not static. It is based on the current weight you entered in MFP. So when you update that, MFP updates all of those "if everyday..." numbers to use that weight - even if that weight check in is after the food dairy date. I know because I looked a few earlier ones when I started MFP and noticed something wasn't quite right with it. So I tested it by editing my weight check-ins and yep, that number changed.

I also like to see it after I've had a higher than desired calorie day. It makes me feel better than the weight prediction would be about the same or slightly lower than my current weight. So that helps me to avoid the "I just blew it" mind talk.

cincysweetheart

Seriously? How am I supposed to answer that? Are you really thinking I mark my calendar every day with the prediction and then go back to see how close they were?

Don't get me wrong… I love the predictions. I look forward to closing out my diary every night just so I can see that number. But I honestly can't tell you if they are accurate or not… because I don't exactly keep track of the prediction every day and then refer back to it in 5 weeks. But I figure… don't count on it. For it to be accurate... everyday would have to be exactly like that day. Meaning you would net the EXACT same calories and you would weigh the exact same amount throughout the next 5 weeks. (Oh yeah… and your logging would have to be done with 100% accuracy.) That's virtually impossible when both of those numbers would have have to be identical. Don't count on it being accurate. But it can give you a nice boost of motivation when those predictions are continually showing a weight that is less than your current one.

cw106

mine have been quite accurate over past 4 months.
simple to quantify,just post it here for a few days running then cross-check in 5 weeks.

brightsideofpink

glevinso wrote: »

It is a useless extrapolation based upon a single datum. Simply ignore it.

This is the most concise, accurate statement I've seen about this button to date. Well said.

jrline

As long as you are very accurate and consistent with both your eating and exercise. They can be.

lemurcat12

If you eat the same calories every day and have found in the past that MFP's numbers are right for you, then it might be accurate.

It's not accurate for me at all right now since I'm doing TDEE method and MFP tells me what I'd weigh in 5 weeks if I don't exercise.

brightsideofpink

mitch16 wrote: »

No.

I wish they would add some better functionality to it though. For one thing, I hate that it's daily--one good day, you're down, but one bad day, and you're suddenly on a weight-gaining trajectory. I would like to see the ability to have it look at the floating average over, say, the course of a week. I would also love to be able to track it--if today it says that in 5 weeks I will weigh XXX lbs, then 5 weeks down the road when I weigh myself I would like for it to 'remember' that number just so that I can see the trends. (Yeah, I'm kind of a data analytics nerd...)

One of my favorite features of using a Fitbit is the weekly report. It will tell me my calories burned, my calories consumed, and my weight loss, all over the week. Obviously 7 days is still a small sample size, but I've found it fairly accurate- every 3500 calorie deficit is pretty much equivalent to a pound loss for me. Its a neat feature to watch.

lemurcat12

My Fitbit estimates over the week and month were extremely accurate too.

T1DCarnivoreRunner

I wish! My deficit is set to lose 0.5 lbs. per week, and MFP keeps telling me all kinds of nice things about where my weight should be in 5 weeks. In the last 5 weeks, I've gained 0.2 lbs. (haven't logged the gain yet).

grantwashere

Hell no! Not anywhere even close.

This:

glevinso wrote: »

It is a useless extrapolation based upon a single datum. Simply ignore it.

CupcakeCrusoe

Someone mentioned Libra for Android, there's also Fatwatch for iPhones, that's what I use, for a moving average. Very motivating to not see the fluctuations.

There's also the Hacker's Diet online, that's what Fatwatch was based on, and it does the same thing.

Debbjones

DeannaLynnPerkins wrote: »

Is there any way to turn that stupid prediction off?? It's annoying because it's never accurate for me either. I'd honestly rather not see it at all.

Sorry... some of us with OCD's do live by that number and we don't want it turned off! Please remember, you can't please everyone! I HATE the fact they turn off the 5 week prediction and just give me the same warning over and over that I am under eating (when I consume less than what the "Government and Nutritional Guidelines" claim is the recommended daily caloric intake). I would rather see a number that fluctuates a bit than see the same message that I am under-eating! Duh! I know by their standards I am under-eating, I am not stupid. I don't need to be reminded!

As far as "Everyday isn't like today, ever!"... that is your choice, NOT my choice. My choice is to have little variation in my foods which results in little variation in my caloric intake. Therefore, this prediction works for me.

Again, I know I am not typical... but I refuse to add variables to my diet, like candy sugar and deep fried foods to name just a few. So yes, the "5 week prediction" number is relatively on target for me and it helps me average the weight I have maintained for months now.

Just saying! All people are different. I might be not part of your NORM... but all people are different and what works for one may not work for all.

WalkingAlong

CupcakeCrusoe wrote: »

Someone mentioned Libra for Android, there's also Fatwatch for iPhones, that's what I use, for a moving average. Very motivating to not see the fluctuations.

There's also the Hacker's Diet online, that's what Fatwatch was based on, and it does the same thing.

Trendweight is also based on the Hacker's Diet math. Viewing the data that way has been hugely helpful to me.

LAWoman72

jrline wrote: »

As long as you are very accurate and consistent with both your eating and exercise. They can be.

Not mine.

I've been consistently losing 2 lbs. per week (actually, this week it was 2.5) and I am still getting predictions that show me losing 1 lb. per week.

I actually did just go back and check, and, yep!

For the record, I have been consistently eating almost exactly the amount of calories MFP gives me (give or take maybe 50 cals/day either way max), but I have these daily settings per losing 1 lb. per week. I weigh and measure (a li'l obsessively) and am set at sedentary (and I really am), and when I do get exercise, I have been logging that, hence getting a higher number on those days, and have been eating up to that number just as an experiment (since in the past, esp. on Weight Watchers, I was never able to "eat back" my calories).

So basically, as far as I can see, MFP isn't doing an actual calculation, it's just predicting the exact loss I'd put in my initial calorie settings to reflect, seeing that I'm in that range daily and continuing to make that 1-lb. per week prediction, despite my logging in my weight loss each wek.

Carlos_421

If you complete your entry for Tuesday but you haven't weighed since Friday, the prediction is based on four day old statistics as if they are current.

It would be impossible for it to be accurate unless you're weighing everyday and entering your weight right before completing your entry. Even then, the phrase "if every day was like today" is still key.

The only use I've found for this feature is if I went over my calorie goal I can look to see if it says I would still lose (just not as much) or gain over five weeks.

obscuremusicreference

Thanks for the answers, everyone! I'm new to MFP (lost 20 pounds before I came here), and I wasn't sure whether people found them to be generally accurate. I've been doing a lot more reading about water weight, etc since I made this thread and I'm not that attached to the idea of losing that much weight in five weeks anymore.

Thanks again!

Misshayleyree95

I add everything that i eat, even the little things and even when i have a good deficit, it's still around the same weight at the end of each day. I havent gotten to that 5 week point yet but if its roughly the same after each day, give or take a couple pounds, then i would say it should be pretty accurate.

Merkavar

How is it saying you might lose 15+ pounds? Your deficit must be massive. To the point it would give a warning saying you haven't eaten enough and not give any 5 week prediction.

Merkavar

I do think they should change if from a 5 week prediction based on one day to a 4-5 week prediction based in the previous 7 days including today.

I would imagine it would be more accurate and meaningful of a prediction.

Amanda4change

Merkavar wrote: »

How is it saying you might lose 15+ pounds? Your deficit must be massive. To the point it would give a warning saying you haven't eaten enough and not give any 5 week prediction.

If you eat above 1200 (as a female) and have exercise calories logged it won't give you the you've eaten to little message (at least it never has me, I only get the message if my food number is below 1200). Even then I still get the prediction number for 5 weeks (even though the message says I won't get it)

Francl27

It's math. It will only be accurate if you're tracking 100% properly, and know exactly what your TDEE and exercise burns are.