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Has Global Health and Wealth Increased or Decreased?
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Aaron_K123 wrote: »
At that point one needs to decide if we as a country support those people financially to give them the opportunity to retrain and become professionals within a new domain or if they just become impoverished or forced to do some sort of menial labor where their potential is wasted.
i think that's exactly what we need to find a way to do. This is exactly why college/vocational schools should be free for all (or at least for those below a certain income). People are gonna need to learn totally new skillsets. Some blue-collar jobs are already starting to go away. But not many people seem to care at this point because it's mostly affecting poorer people. Once AI starts replacing white-collar workers and affecting the upper middle class, I think more people will start to notice and take some form of action- ideally by establishing UBI and/or some new strategy for job retraining.
But that's a huge undertaking that would require massive amounts of money. Not to mention rapid cultural shifts in how the public views labor, merit, and capital itself. Now admittedly, I'm just your everyday socialist with a background in sociology/psychology- not economics. So while I'd *love* to see UBI happen in my lifetime, I'm honestly just not sure how feasible/realistic those kind of changes would be, unfortunately, given an increasingly polarized political climate. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Although I might have brought up the idea of a UBI I would not self-describe as socialist at all. I don't typically like to self-apply political or social labels to myself as I don't feel really any of them fully encapsulate my beliefs but if I were to pick one it would probably be libertarian....and yet faced with an AI future I still think a UBI might be necessary. It does concern me though, I would be very concerned that if people become too comfortable just from the generated wealth of AI to the point that they do nothing with their time but watch entertainment, make youtube videos and Etsy crafts I sort of hate to picture what happens to the general competence and education level of humanity after another couple of generations. I mean why even bother to pursue higher education in that sort of future? For a functioning society I think at some level you need to have a system that makes not working uncomfortable.7 -
Aaron_K123 wrote: »
At that point one needs to decide if we as a country support those people financially to give them the opportunity to retrain and become professionals within a new domain or if they just become impoverished or forced to do some sort of menial labor where their potential is wasted.
i think that's exactly what we need to find a way to do. This is exactly why college/vocational schools should be free for all (or at least for those below a certain income). People are gonna need to learn totally new skillsets. Some blue-collar jobs are already starting to go away. But not many people seem to care at this point because it's mostly affecting poorer people.
I don't see much interest from the affected groups in retraining, although I would be in favor of programs to help with that (free or easy to access training programs for displaced workers and so on). I'd also be in favor of secondary school programs to help train people for the jobs that do or could exist (which is something other countries do better than the US -- I mean skilled blue collar trades.
I have mixed feelings about UBI.0 -
Aaron_K123 wrote: »Aaron_K123 wrote: »
At that point one needs to decide if we as a country support those people financially to give them the opportunity to retrain and become professionals within a new domain or if they just become impoverished or forced to do some sort of menial labor where their potential is wasted.
i think that's exactly what we need to find a way to do. This is exactly why college/vocational schools should be free for all (or at least for those below a certain income). People are gonna need to learn totally new skillsets. Some blue-collar jobs are already starting to go away. But not many people seem to care at this point because it's mostly affecting poorer people. Once AI starts replacing white-collar workers and affecting the upper middle class, I think more people will start to notice and take some form of action- ideally by establishing UBI and/or some new strategy for job retraining.
But that's a huge undertaking that would require massive amounts of money. Not to mention rapid cultural shifts in how the public views labor, merit, and capital itself. Now admittedly, I'm just your everyday socialist with a background in sociology/psychology- not economics. So while I'd *love* to see UBI happen in my lifetime, I'm honestly just not sure how feasible/realistic those kind of changes would be, unfortunately, given an increasingly polarized political climate. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Although I might have brought up the idea of a UBI I would not self-describe as socialist at all. I don't typically like to self-apply political or social labels to myself as I don't feel really any of them fully encapsulate my beliefs but if I were to pick one it would probably be libertarian....and yet faced with an AI future I still think a UBI might be necessary. It does concern me though, I would be very concerned that if people become too comfortable just from the generated wealth of AI to the point that they do nothing with their time but watch entertainment, make youtube videos and Etsy crafts I sort of hate to picture what happens to the general competence and education level of humanity after another couple of generations. I mean why even bother to pursue higher education in that sort of future? For a functioning society I think at some level you need to have a system that makes not working uncomfortable.
You have to allow the culture to accept this naturally. If history shows anything it is that politics is downstream of culture. Any attempts to engineer or force people into something they don't want....civil war, starvation, genocide...
Any system having a chance of success needs merit - a key element lacking in all authoritarian systems that denies human nature.
The term "free" needs to be removed for any chance of having a constructive conversation. There is no such animal. Someone always pays, but this is deemed acceptable as long as it isn't the person asking for the "free".
We are facing a very real issue in the US - shortage of skilled labor. Nearly 80% of the electricians are retiring in the next decade with little to no backfill. These are fantastic paying jobs with tremendous potential - also difficult to outsource. ...but we have endless numbers of liberal arts bachelor's degrees all with massive student debt.3 -
MeanderingMammal wrote: »
Feelings are not facts and completely subjective. This does not set a good foundation for discussion or solutions.
However, people are subjective beasts. We act in irrational ways, for a number of reasons.
With respect to the specific example, it's expressed in an emotional way because that's how it's perceived. How the business is run is a material point in compensation, but that's rarely a factor considered by employees. In this instance the business owner uses I in two different contexts; I the business, that pays salary, and I the recipient of a salary.
What we're really talking about is salary disparity. Clearly without the clinician the business wouldn't exist, and the education/ skill level is higher, hence a higher salary. But could the business afford to reward the individual for recognised performance?
A "good" leader would ensure that the individual has the opportunity to exceed and excel. This is beneficial to the leader, the business, and the individual.
I wouldn't disagree, but good leadership is something I've seen rarely in the civilian world, particularly not amongst small business owners of the type described. I did my MBA whilst I was still in the service, whilst I was in sub-unit command. Lots of theory on leadership in the business environment, not much real leadership behaviour.
Fear of change is the root cause of many of the world's problems.
In my experience of running business change programmes, what people tend to fear is uncertainty, rather than change itself. That's where we get to the materiality of this discussion. Whilst wealth has undeniably increased, so had the cost of living. Perceptions of disparity are a reality, even if the statistics suggest that there hasn't been an increase in that. When the emergence of a kleptocracy in Russia is celebrated and admired one might question what environmental factors influence that.
We come back to people aren't rational. They're motivated by self interest and the short term, we rarely see an enlightened self interest. Statistics are all very well, but what do they mean to people, and how do they influence behaviour?1 -
Aaron_K123 wrote: »
Although I might have brought up the idea of a UBI I would not self-describe as socialist at all. I don't typically like to self-apply political or social labels to myself as I don't feel really any of them fully encapsulate my beliefs but if I were to pick one it would probably be libertarian....and yet faced with an AI future I still think a UBI might be necessary. It does concern me though, I would be very concerned that if people become too comfortable just from the generated wealth of AI to the point that they do nothing with their time but watch entertainment, make youtube videos and Etsy crafts I sort of hate to picture what happens to the general competence and education level of humanity after another couple of generations. I mean why even bother to pursue higher education in that sort of future? For a functioning society I think at some level you need to have a system that makes not working uncomfortable.
if you're into sociological theory at all, I would recommend reading some of Emile Durkheim's works, especially Suicide and The Division of Labor in Society. Or just skim his wikipedia page lol. Dude basically invented sociology as a science. He talks a lot about how in modernity, as technology/industrialization increase, the kind of societal shifts you mentioned- where people end up feeling a disconnection from their labor (and therefore their identity)- happen . You might also find his ideas of Anomie and Organic vs Mechanical solidarity interesting.
Thanks. Out of curiosity is this area of study your hobby or your career or both? What I'm saying isn't coming from being particularly well read in sociology....I certainly am not.1 -
It sounds like pretty much everyone is in agreement on the world poverty level having improved.
But in the USA...I don't know if we are better off than 50 years ago. Probably, in some ways, like there is slow improvement in poverty due to discrimination, from what I've seen. But I suspect we are worse off overall, in general.
Yes, there is better technology which has improved infant mortality rate. But maternal mortality rates after birth in the USA are rising, not falling. Whether we actually have the worst mortality rate for mothers than any other developed nation, as the statistics state, I don't know, but by our own reporting standards, health care for pregnant women is worse than it used to be. And poverty (and healthcare costs) are part of the issue.
More of the poor in our country are working age (18-64) than they were 50 years ago, whereas fewer elderly are poor now than they used to be. Which is a concern considering that more poverty in our youth equals a growing population of poor elderly in our future.
"Deutsche Bank economist Torsten Slok [states]: The percentage of families with more debt than savings is higher now than at any point since 1962, while the median American family’s net worth is lower than it’s been in nearly a quarter-century." (http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/01/americans-havent-been-this-poor-and-indebted-in-decades.html )
If college is looked at as a way to improve income, it is steadily becoming more and more unattainable by anyone who wishes to use it to get OUT of poverty in the USA. It used to be that one could save for a couple years and work your way through college, quite frequently. Not really possible any more.
As some examples, between 1982-2008, college rates increased 439%. Wages increased 147%. This disparity is continuing. By 2012, the average cost of higher education for students enrolling was $119,400 for a private college, and $33,300 for a public one. (http://www.bestcollegesonline.com/blog/a-timeline-of-college-tuition/)
A minimum wage job, full time (40 hours a week), earns only around $15,000 a year.
There are other examples like this, such as the cost of healthcare, or how more 18-34 year olds are likely to live with parents than away from them (often due to finances), but it boils down to the fact that while, yes, the USA DOES have more monetary wealth than many other countries, our population's ability to afford all that we have here is going down. And costs and debt are going up.0 -
Bill & Melinda Gates talk about this topic all the time.
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation does great work in improving lives around the world. They publish amazing statistics that prove the world is getting better on many, many fronts.
2017's Annual Letter is a great example showing these many global improvements.
https://www.gatesnotes.com/2017-Annual-Letter
A brief summary I've made:
1. 122 million children’s lives saved since 1990. These children would have died if mortality rates had stayed where they were in 1990.
3. Coverage for the basic package of childhood vaccines is now the highest it’s ever been, at 86 percent. And the gap between the richest and the poorest countries is the lowest it’s ever been. Vaccines are the biggest reason for the drop in childhood deaths.
4. Newborn mortality rates better, influencing childhood mortality rates.
5. Nutrition better, influencing childhood mortality rates.
6. For the first time in history, more than 300 million women in developing countries are using modern methods of contraception. It took decades to reach 200 million women. It has taken only another 13 years to reach 300 million—and the impact in saving lives is fantastic.
7. Poverty is sexist. But now 75 million women in India are in self-help groups aimed at improving women’s power, preventing HIV, responding to violent attacks, accessing financial services.
8. Extreme poverty has been cut in half over the last 25 years. That’s a big accomplishment that ought to make everyone more optimistic. But almost no one knows about it. In a recent survey, just 1 percent knew we had cut extreme poverty in half, and 99 percent underestimated the progress. That survey wasn’t just testing knowledge; it was testing optimism—and the world didn’t score so well.
9. We want to end our letter with the most magical number we know. It’s zero. This is the number we’re striving toward every day at the foundation. Zero malaria. Zero TB. Zero HIV. Zero malnutrition. Zero preventable deaths. Zero difference between the health of a poor kid and every other kid. In 1988, when the global campaign was launched to end polio, there were 350,000 new cases each year. Last year, there were 37.MeanderingMammal wrote: »[...]We come back to people aren't rational. They're motivated by self interest and the short term, we rarely see an enlightened self interest. Statistics are all very well, but what do they mean to people, and how do they influence behaviour?
See 7 above and the survey they discussed in the letter.
We all think we are the only ones doing any good in this world. Yet somehow, the world keeps getting better.0 -
Bill & Melinda Gates talk about this topic all the time.
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation does great work in improving lives around the world. They publish amazing statistics that prove the world is getting better on many, many fronts.
2017's Annual Letter is a great example showing these many global improvements.
https://www.gatesnotes.com/2017-Annual-Letter
A brief summary I've made:
1. 122 million children’s lives saved since 1990. These children would have died if mortality rates had stayed where they were in 1990.
3. Coverage for the basic package of childhood vaccines is now the highest it’s ever been, at 86 percent. And the gap between the richest and the poorest countries is the lowest it’s ever been. Vaccines are the biggest reason for the drop in childhood deaths.
4. Newborn mortality rates better, influencing childhood mortality rates.
5. Nutrition better, influencing childhood mortality rates.
6. For the first time in history, more than 300 million women in developing countries are using modern methods of contraception. It took decades to reach 200 million women. It has taken only another 13 years to reach 300 million—and the impact in saving lives is fantastic.
7. Poverty is sexist. But now 75 million women in India are in self-help groups aimed at improving women’s power, preventing HIV, responding to violent attacks, accessing financial services.
8. Extreme poverty has been cut in half over the last 25 years. That’s a big accomplishment that ought to make everyone more optimistic. But almost no one knows about it. In a recent survey, just 1 percent knew we had cut extreme poverty in half, and 99 percent underestimated the progress. That survey wasn’t just testing knowledge; it was testing optimism—and the world didn’t score so well.
9. We want to end our letter with the most magical number we know. It’s zero. This is the number we’re striving toward every day at the foundation. Zero malaria. Zero TB. Zero HIV. Zero malnutrition. Zero preventable deaths. Zero difference between the health of a poor kid and every other kid. In 1988, when the global campaign was launched to end polio, there were 350,000 new cases each year. Last year, there were 37.MeanderingMammal wrote: »[...]We come back to people aren't rational. They're motivated by self interest and the short term, we rarely see an enlightened self interest. Statistics are all very well, but what do they mean to people, and how do they influence behaviour?
See 7 above and the survey they discussed in the letter.
We all think we are the only ones doing any good in this world. Yet somehow, the world keeps getting better.
Yeah they do a lot for global health...hell I guess technically about half my paycheck comes from the BMGF.0 -
Aaron_K123 wrote: »Bill & Melinda Gates talk about this topic all the time.
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation does great work in improving lives around the world. They publish amazing statistics that prove the world is getting better on many, many fronts.
2017's Annual Letter is a great example showing these many global improvements.
https://www.gatesnotes.com/2017-Annual-Letter
A brief summary I've made:
1. 122 million children’s lives saved since 1990. These children would have died if mortality rates had stayed where they were in 1990.
3. Coverage for the basic package of childhood vaccines is now the highest it’s ever been, at 86 percent. And the gap between the richest and the poorest countries is the lowest it’s ever been. Vaccines are the biggest reason for the drop in childhood deaths.
4. Newborn mortality rates better, influencing childhood mortality rates.
5. Nutrition better, influencing childhood mortality rates.
6. For the first time in history, more than 300 million women in developing countries are using modern methods of contraception. It took decades to reach 200 million women. It has taken only another 13 years to reach 300 million—and the impact in saving lives is fantastic.
7. Poverty is sexist. But now 75 million women in India are in self-help groups aimed at improving women’s power, preventing HIV, responding to violent attacks, accessing financial services.
8. Extreme poverty has been cut in half over the last 25 years. That’s a big accomplishment that ought to make everyone more optimistic. But almost no one knows about it. In a recent survey, just 1 percent knew we had cut extreme poverty in half, and 99 percent underestimated the progress. That survey wasn’t just testing knowledge; it was testing optimism—and the world didn’t score so well.
9. We want to end our letter with the most magical number we know. It’s zero. This is the number we’re striving toward every day at the foundation. Zero malaria. Zero TB. Zero HIV. Zero malnutrition. Zero preventable deaths. Zero difference between the health of a poor kid and every other kid. In 1988, when the global campaign was launched to end polio, there were 350,000 new cases each year. Last year, there were 37.MeanderingMammal wrote: »[...]We come back to people aren't rational. They're motivated by self interest and the short term, we rarely see an enlightened self interest. Statistics are all very well, but what do they mean to people, and how do they influence behaviour?
See 7 above and the survey they discussed in the letter.
We all think we are the only ones doing any good in this world. Yet somehow, the world keeps getting better.
Yeah they do a lot for global health...hell I guess technically about half my paycheck comes from the BMGF.
Cool! Where are you based?0 -
Aaron_K123 wrote: »Aaron_K123 wrote: »
At that point one needs to decide if we as a country support those people financially to give them the opportunity to retrain and become professionals within a new domain or if they just become impoverished or forced to do some sort of menial labor where their potential is wasted.
i think that's exactly what we need to find a way to do. This is exactly why college/vocational schools should be free for all (or at least for those below a certain income). People are gonna need to learn totally new skillsets. Some blue-collar jobs are already starting to go away. But not many people seem to care at this point because it's mostly affecting poorer people. Once AI starts replacing white-collar workers and affecting the upper middle class, I think more people will start to notice and take some form of action- ideally by establishing UBI and/or some new strategy for job retraining.
But that's a huge undertaking that would require massive amounts of money. Not to mention rapid cultural shifts in how the public views labor, merit, and capital itself. Now admittedly, I'm just your everyday socialist with a background in sociology/psychology- not economics. So while I'd *love* to see UBI happen in my lifetime, I'm honestly just not sure how feasible/realistic those kind of changes would be, unfortunately, given an increasingly polarized political climate. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Although I might have brought up the idea of a UBI I would not self-describe as socialist at all. I don't typically like to self-apply political or social labels to myself as I don't feel really any of them fully encapsulate my beliefs but if I were to pick one it would probably be libertarian....and yet faced with an AI future I still think a UBI might be necessary. It does concern me though, I would be very concerned that if people become too comfortable just from the generated wealth of AI to the point that they do nothing with their time but watch entertainment, make youtube videos and Etsy crafts I sort of hate to picture what happens to the general competence and education level of humanity after another couple of generations. I mean why even bother to pursue higher education in that sort of future? For a functioning society I think at some level you need to have a system that makes not working uncomfortable.
I wish I could remember where I read it so I could give credit, but I read an author discussing "the end of work" due to AI who had a more optimistic outlook.
The idea was that humans have an inherent desire to be busy, to create, and to accomplish. That the primary reason people become habitually lazy is because they are required to do work they don't like to support themselves, and are taught that skills that will get them money are more satisfying than skills that won't. So they lose interest in anything they cant make a living at and feel generally useless if they are unable to match up their natural talents with a decent job.
The theory/hope was that in a world where working for a living isn't necessary, people will feel free to do activities that give them personal satisfaction and pride without embarrassment or judgement. So people will get busy pursuing their natural talents and interests, which for many would still require higher education, study, and practice. There would still be naturally lazy people, but it wouldn't take over everyone necessarily.
Not sure if I buy that, and I have to think there would be a treacherous transition period regardless, but at least a possibility of better than the space ark in Wall-E!1 -
There are parts of the world that are crying for workers and suffering productivity losses because of it.
It seems to me we should be able to leverage AI and our new connectedness to match up talent with opportunity.
If the world gets good at this, it could be as impactful as the Green Revolution.0 -
Aaron_K123 wrote: »Bill & Melinda Gates talk about this topic all the time.
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation does great work in improving lives around the world. They publish amazing statistics that prove the world is getting better on many, many fronts.
2017's Annual Letter is a great example showing these many global improvements.
https://www.gatesnotes.com/2017-Annual-Letter
A brief summary I've made:
1. 122 million children’s lives saved since 1990. These children would have died if mortality rates had stayed where they were in 1990.
3. Coverage for the basic package of childhood vaccines is now the highest it’s ever been, at 86 percent. And the gap between the richest and the poorest countries is the lowest it’s ever been. Vaccines are the biggest reason for the drop in childhood deaths.
4. Newborn mortality rates better, influencing childhood mortality rates.
5. Nutrition better, influencing childhood mortality rates.
6. For the first time in history, more than 300 million women in developing countries are using modern methods of contraception. It took decades to reach 200 million women. It has taken only another 13 years to reach 300 million—and the impact in saving lives is fantastic.
7. Poverty is sexist. But now 75 million women in India are in self-help groups aimed at improving women’s power, preventing HIV, responding to violent attacks, accessing financial services.
8. Extreme poverty has been cut in half over the last 25 years. That’s a big accomplishment that ought to make everyone more optimistic. But almost no one knows about it. In a recent survey, just 1 percent knew we had cut extreme poverty in half, and 99 percent underestimated the progress. That survey wasn’t just testing knowledge; it was testing optimism—and the world didn’t score so well.
9. We want to end our letter with the most magical number we know. It’s zero. This is the number we’re striving toward every day at the foundation. Zero malaria. Zero TB. Zero HIV. Zero malnutrition. Zero preventable deaths. Zero difference between the health of a poor kid and every other kid. In 1988, when the global campaign was launched to end polio, there were 350,000 new cases each year. Last year, there were 37.MeanderingMammal wrote: »[...]We come back to people aren't rational. They're motivated by self interest and the short term, we rarely see an enlightened self interest. Statistics are all very well, but what do they mean to people, and how do they influence behaviour?
See 7 above and the survey they discussed in the letter.
We all think we are the only ones doing any good in this world. Yet somehow, the world keeps getting better.
Yeah they do a lot for global health...hell I guess technically about half my paycheck comes from the BMGF.
Cool! Where are you based?
Seattle...I'm a research scientist at a non-profit infectious disease research center dedicated to the development of therapeutics/diagnostics for orphan diseases (diseases for which there is little monetary incentive to develop treatments). A lot of our funding comes from BMGF.3 -
This guy says violence spreads like infectious disease and suggests that we can apply lessons learned from disease control to eradicate violence.
https://www.ted.com/talks/gary_slutkin_let_s_treat_violence_like_a_contagious_disease/up-next0 -
This guy says violence spreads like infectious disease and suggests that we can apply lessons learned from disease control to eradicate violence.
https://www.ted.com/talks/gary_slutkin_let_s_treat_violence_like_a_contagious_disease/up-next
Interesting insight - I spent a few years overseeing the security of aid forces in Somalia. Having spent years in martial arts there is the underlying philosophy "The only rational reason of mastering violence is to abolish it".0 -
This guy says violence spreads like infectious disease and suggests that we can apply lessons learned from disease control to eradicate violence.
https://www.ted.com/talks/gary_slutkin_let_s_treat_violence_like_a_contagious_disease/up-next
The problem is that one cause of violence is evil men.
The other, is that even with a 35-60% reduction of violence in Chicago or Baltimore still leaves them leading the world in violence.
1 -
stanmann571 wrote: »This guy says violence spreads like infectious disease and suggests that we can apply lessons learned from disease control to eradicate violence.
https://www.ted.com/talks/gary_slutkin_let_s_treat_violence_like_a_contagious_disease/up-next
The problem is that one cause of violence is evil men.
Most conflict is over resource. Whether that is water, oil, land or access to routes and markets.
Evil has little to do with it.
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