I must be doing something wrong - Help?

Hey. im a 37 y/o man. Ive been up and down weight wise from 185 (teens) to currently pushing 240lbs. I am and have always been a bigger dude (well 5'9" so not a tall dude). I have never had confidence about my body.

3.5 Years ago I ran a half marathon and weighed around 204lbs.
2 years ago we had another child, my son, who is a handful to put it nicely, and between the 9 months of waiting and going forward I have gained 30 lbs and have not been able to lose it.
For the past TWO YEARS of quarantine I have done a 30 minute workout almost every day, plus walked 1-3 miles at least 3 times a week. I am for 1500 calories a day.

I know stress is a huge thing, but stress never goes away. I do not get great sleep, but its typically 6-7 hours a night. So I know those two things work against me. I do not generally like to eat raw fruit / vegetables as a snack. I do drink alcohol - but even having cut this for months at a time did not see a difference on the scale.

I work out (Various Beachbody fitness programs). I track my calories. I OVER ESTIMATE my calories. and I have been steadily GAINING WEIGHT. And yes, I credit some of it to muscle building (I can 100% FEEL the difference in my muscles) but I have not really lost any inches anywhere, and I am gaining weight.

I am losing my mind and getting so mad at myself. Then I give up and eat too much.
I don't feel human if I do not do a workout so that is not going to stop.

I'm just hopeless and looking for real suggestions and help.

I want to lose 20lbs by my birthday in May. I feel I NEED to lose 40 lbs as a bigger goal to be healthy. In my imagination I weigh 185 or so.