Heard a statistic that basically nobody can truly lose weight, is it BS?
Trestjerner
Posts: 5 Member
An overweight and very negative friend told me today that, I shouldn't bother trying to lose weight because only 3% manage to keep the weight of and the rest will gain it all back and then some. That statistic sounded...less then credible to me, but she couldn't give me any evidence for it except to point me towards a fat acceptance blog.
My question; Is the statistic as BS as it sounds like? Where does it come from and how can I debunk it for her?
My question; Is the statistic as BS as it sounds like? Where does it come from and how can I debunk it for her?
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Replies
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I can't cite any specific sources, but yes I think the conventional wisdom is that at least 90% of dieters tend to fail over the long-term.
Editorially...I think it has to do with the prevalence of gimmicks and fad diets that do not teach sustainability in the long term15 -
Trestjerner wrote: »An overweight and very negative friend told me today that, I shouldn't bother trying to lose weight because only 3% manage to keep the weight of and the rest will gain it all back and then some. That statistic sounded...less then credible to me, but she couldn't give me any evidence for it except to point me towards a fat acceptance blog.
My question; Is the statistic as BS as it sounds like? Where does it come from and how can I debunk it for her?
I've read the source for that. It's from a HAES advocate who gathered the data from a very "scientific" sampling of about 4 people she knew.
Try looking at the National Weight Control Registry for a brain palate cleanser.
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I think it is true that a lot -- a LOT -- of people gain it back. I did. But I don't think I was really serious, to be honest. And, if your friend is always "very negative" you might try not to pay attention to everything she says. People who are always negative are draining to be with. I'm not saying we can't all be negative sometimes, but the chronic ones are energy-sapping.
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Let's say other people do fail. How does that mean you will?10
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This man has lost 312 pounds and has KEPT it off, using MFP. http://www.myfitnesspal.com/profile/CyberEd3124
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ceoverturf wrote: »I can't cite any specific sources, but yes I think the conventional wisdom is that at least 90% of dieters tend to fail over the long-term.
Editorially...I think it has to do with the prevalence of gimmicks and fad diets that do not teach sustainability in the long term
I also think it has to do with the seriousness of the effort involved in the loss and totally agree with the issue of sustainability and fads/gimmicks.
Even weight loss studies are carried out with unsustainable methods. As long as dieting is looked at as something you "do" and then "stop", people will struggle with weight regain.
I like the idea of the disease model of obesity because it addresses the idea that it's a chronic issue that needs ongoing management. The formerly obese will always need to manage their disease through some sort of watchfulness.
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PeachyCarol wrote: »Trestjerner wrote: »An overweight and very negative friend told me today that, I shouldn't bother trying to lose weight because only 3% manage to keep the weight of and the rest will gain it all back and then some. That statistic sounded...less then credible to me, but she couldn't give me any evidence for it except to point me towards a fat acceptance blog.
My question; Is the statistic as BS as it sounds like? Where does it come from and how can I debunk it for her?
I've read the source for that. It's from a HAES advocate who gathered the data from a very "scientific" sampling of about 4 people she knew.
Try looking at the National Weight Control Registry for a brain palate cleanser.
Aww....now that sucks that a 'friend' would say something like that to anyone.
Yes the statistics for success aren't the most uplifting and inspiring and as @ceoverturf has pointed out the consensus of 90% failure is pretty abysmal...
Prove her wrong. Remember the adage of "There are lies, damned lies and then there are statistics."
If her info. came from HAES from the sample size Carol is speaking of then it's rubbish, she has a personal agenda and you would probably be better to steer clear of the topic of weight with her in future.
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Did you know that 73.6% of statistics are made up?
Your friend sounds like a miserable person who wants other people to be miserable too.
If you truly want to lose weight you have to commit for the long-term. There are no fad diets or quick fixes that are going to keep the weight off long-term. Slow and steady wins the race.8 -
DeguelloTex wrote: »Let's say other people do fail. How does that mean you will?Liftng4Lis wrote: »This man has lost 312 pounds and has KEPT it off, using MFP. http://www.myfitnesspal.com/profile/CyberEd312
^^^ This and this. All that matters is what YOU do.4 -
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Whatever the true statistics are, I think the distinction is between the words 'can' and 'will'.
Maybe only 3% or 5% or whatever WILL keep the weight off, but pretty much anyone CAN do it. Which means so can you (you being anyone), you just have to decide you're part of the (allegedly) small minority.2 -
Statistics like this are horrible and shouldn't be considered unless you know exactly where the information is coming from and how it is being used. If you think of all the people in the world who start a diet (especially fad diets) and give up in a couple weeks I can see why it would be around 3%. Using MFP is a great way to stick to losing weight and keeping it off long term- it gives you all the information you need to make good food choices on your own and in real life situations. Diets don't work, changing your eating habits long term will give you the best chance. If you use the website correctly and consistently it will give a much greater chance of succeeding compared to a fad diet.
IMO: I've been yo-yo dieting for over 10 years and I would rather be yo-yoing for the rest of my life than just getting bigger and bigger every year!4 -
This is a nice read on the subject:
http://www.weightymatters.ca/2014/06/is-it-really-scientifically-impossible.html0 -
You can debunk her, by proving her wrong.4
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I reached my goal in November of 2011. I've maintained at +/- 3 pounds since then.
You can do anything you want to IF you want to bad enough.9 -
The success or failure of others should have nothing to do with your determination to complete a goal that you set for yourself. You will succeed or fail based on your own merit - as with anything in life. If you truly want something, *kitten* what anyone else has to say about it. Do it.2
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True, just about. According to http://ajcn.nutrition.org/content/82/1/222S.long , various studies show a range of anywhere from 2% to 20% success rate at best. And they define success as losing 10% of body weight and keeping it off for 1 year. Moral of the story is, don't be a statistic. They also give a few keys to lasting weight loss, including exercise, constant monitoring, consistency, catching 'slip ups' before they get too far, etc.3
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I've read that the success rate of weight loss is less than stopping smoking (something like 7%). I haven't had a smoke in 10 years, so I think I can keep my 163# off.
IMO, it's about making a commitment to a WoE (way of eating) you can do the rest of your life. For me, that's weighing and measuring my food and being moderately active.5 -
5% is the number I've heard and here is the source for that:
95% Regain Lost Weight. Or Do They?
It is a depressing article of faith among the overweight and those who treat them that 95 percent of people who lose weight regain it -- and sometimes more -- within a few months or years.
That statistic has been quoted widely over the last four decades, in Congressional hearings, diet books, research papers and seminars. And it is the reason so many people approach dieting with a sense of hopelessness.
But in fact, obesity researchers say, no one has any idea how many people can lose weight and keep it off. Now, as researchers try to determine how many people have succeeded, they are also studying the success stories for lessons that might inspire others to try.
''That 95 percent figure has become clinical lore,'' said Dr. Thomas Wadden, a professor of psychiatry at the University of Pennsylvania. There is no basis for it, he said, ''but it's part of the mythology of obesity.''
Dr. Kelly D. Brownell, the director of the Yale Center for Eating and Weight Disorders, said the number was first suggested in a 1959 clinical study of only 100 people. The finding was repeated so often that it came to be regarded as fact, he said.
Since then, nearly all studies of weight-loss recidivism have followed patients in formal hospital or university programs, because they are the easiest to identify and keep track of. But people who turn to such programs may also be the most difficult cases, and may therefore have especially poor success rates.
To get a more accurate picture, two researchers are studying long-term dieters for a project called the National Weight Control Registry, and have found it surprisingly easy to collect success stories. About half the people who maintained a substantial weight loss for more than a year had done it on their own, they found. This suggests that many people have found ways to lose weight and keep it off, but have never been counted in formal studies.
Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/1999/05/25/health/95-regain-lost-weight-or-do-they.html9 -
My favorite thought from the link PeachyCarol posted: "... if a meta-analysis of randomized trials of weight management fails to show long term success with weight management does it mean the people in the included trials failed to maintain their interventions, or does it mean that the interventions were too crappy to be sustainable in the first place?". And I agree with the writer in strongly suspecting the latter. I think for those who make the effort to truly change their lifestyle and become informed about fitness and nutrition enough to be adept at estimating portion sizes, monitoring calories and macros, and avoiding fads and quick fixes the success factor will be much higher.6
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Trestjerner wrote: »An overweight and very negative friend told me today that, I shouldn't bother trying to lose weight because only 3% manage to keep the weight of and the rest will gain it all back and then some. That statistic sounded...less then credible to me, but she couldn't give me any evidence for it except to point me towards a fat acceptance blog.
My question; Is the statistic as BS as it sounds like? Where does it come from and how can I debunk it for her?
You could be among the 3%.
Your friend is likely scared and ignorant. She wants to believe it is impossible for anyone so she won't have to try.This board is full of people who have lost weight and are maintaining.
I've lost weight before and gained. I did stupid diets. I thought it was hard until I just started watching my calorie intake.
It is worth trying to get to a healthy weight and stay there. I've lost more this year than I ever have and I feel much better. I still have 30 lbs to go but I have more energy. I can breathe better. I can walk farther. I am not in pain. I can touch my toes. If I reach my goal and then gain weight in 5 years then I will have had 5 years of better health and quality of life.
I think people who are succesful long term don't do extreme diets and exercise plans that they can't maintain. Just approach it with a reasonable goal of say 1 lb a week and be patient.3 -
Trestjerner wrote: »An overweight and very negative friend told me today that, I shouldn't bother trying to lose weight because only 3% manage to keep the weight of and the rest will gain it all back and then some. That statistic sounded...less then credible to me, but she couldn't give me any evidence for it except to point me towards a fat acceptance blog.
My question; Is the statistic as BS as it sounds like? Where does it come from and how can I debunk it for her?
If you're not doing a lifestyle change, instead you are doing a crash diet or whatever, then there is probably a good chance you will gain it all back. It's all about consistency and making changes that are sustainable! Your friend sounds like a negative nancy and is only taking into account "fad dieters" and not people who are changing their lifestyles and making healthy changes in both fitness and nutrition.0 -
People who use these statistic to not even attempt to lose weight just seem silly, if it wasn't this statistic it would be another excuse.
So freaking what if you regain the weight.
Another lesser known statistic, 100% of people die. Better not even bother attempt to live.
2 weeks, 2 years or 2 decades at goal weight seems better than 100% of your time overweight/obese.10 -
kshama2001 wrote: »About half the people who maintained a substantial weight loss for more than a year had done it on their own, they found. This suggests that many people have found ways to lose weight and keep it off, but have never been counted in formal studies.
I think this is a key point. We really don't know.
Beyond that, I am someone who once lost, maintained for 5 years (long enough that I could have been considered a success story) and then regained. Does that mean I'm sorry I bothered? Not at all, as I would have been fatter still if I hadn't done it, and -- more significantly -- I learned from doing it the first time that it was possible, not that hard (even somewhat pleasurable if you do it right), and worth doing. There are reasons I regained (and I hope I've learned from them well enough to avoid it this time), but they didn't nullify the positives from losing and maintaining as a fit, healthy-weight person for some time, and they really made me so much more confident this time that I would be successful.
If I am someone who has a tendency to go up in weight if not vigilant, so be it. I just need to learn to be vigilant and take steps if my weight starts to go up again. (So for me this means weighing myself and not making the scale into something to be feared, but merely a source of data.)4 -
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I've read that the success rate of weight loss is less than stopping smoking (something like 7%). I haven't had a smoke in 10 years, so I think I can keep my 163# off.
IMO, it's about making a commitment to a WoE (way of eating) you can do the rest of your life. For me, that's weighing and measuring my food and being moderately active.
This. Exactly! (10 years smoke free here too!)0 -
JustMissTracy wrote: »I've read that the success rate of weight loss is less than stopping smoking (something like 7%). I haven't had a smoke in 10 years, so I think I can keep my 163# off.
IMO, it's about making a commitment to a WoE (way of eating) you can do the rest of your life. For me, that's weighing and measuring my food and being moderately active.
This. Exactly! (10 years smoke free here too!)
14 years smoke free. Looks like people on MFP could be the statistical outliers!0 -
I like to tell myself that the statistics only refer to people who have already attempted weight loss in the past. They do nothing to predict the future for those only starting today. People using MFP could be the beginning of a new trend and I really genuinely believe that could be true.
The first time I lost weight 10 years ago (and put it back on again plus more) I was utterly surrounded by people ignorant about health.....people who felt that a mildly overweight version of me was "too thin" and that orange juice sweetened with buckets of sugar was ultra healthy. People who thought that you could eat mountains of food without putting on weight just so long as none of that food contained fat. People who would hand me an 800 calorie energy bar and insist that it would help me lose weight. People, obese people, who genuinely believed they needed to consume MORE energy in their breakfast cereal to feel better. People who thought diets where you literally eat nothing could lead to sustainable long term weight loss. People who thought "The Biggest Loser" looked like a fantastic way to lose weight long term. People who just accepted weight gain as something that had to happen when you get older......
...Yes these people still exist, but they diminish by the day. I hear CICO in these forums like an obsessive mantra. It can be annoying at times and a little relentless but at least it's based on science! Not a single person uttered the phrase CICO to me 10 years ago.....The tide is turning.
The second time I lost weight 5 years ago I actually had a couple of people further along than me to seek advice from. My doctor had constructive suggestions as to how I could continue to lose weight and even 5 years ago the discussions I had with friends and work colleagues about my weight loss suddenly contained more fact than fiction (though not entirely free of fiction)....people are now far more willing to believe new science than old wives tales. Things are getting better.
I don't think success rate is going to stay at 3% for too much longer.1 -
Unfortunately the outlook is bleak. If in fact as quoted in this article 75% of the population of the united states suffers from a weight problem, it clearly can't be the case that many people are successful at losing weight. As almost every overweight person has at one time or another tried to lose the weight, it must be the case that there are many ineffective weight loss programs.
I myself had lost 85 lbs and regained it. I know exactly why I regained it and it's quite sad: I regained because I got overconfident. Losing the weight had been so easy that I was thinking "I got this", "no problem", and let myself have a little slip here and a little slip there until whoops ... big slip.
This time, I agree with the other article quoted on this thread: constant vigilance. Since the alternative is to die sooner, constant vigilance it'll have to be.
Osric
P.S. I wanted to be the one to say that 100% of people die so why bother, but someone beat me to it.
[edit for legend: grey = grossly obese; dark color = obese; light color = overweight; notice how all the shift in obesity seems to hit the xxxl buckets...]1 -
Trestjerner wrote: »An overweight and very negative friend told me today that, I shouldn't bother trying to lose weight because only 3% manage to keep the weight of and the rest will gain it all back and then some. That statistic sounded...less then credible to me, but she couldn't give me any evidence for it except to point me towards a fat acceptance blog.
My question; Is the statistic as BS as it sounds like? Where does it come from and how can I debunk it for her?
it's a statistic and overall, it's pretty accurate...only about 5% or so of people keep weight off...that doesn't mean you shouldn't try and that doesn't mean you have to be a statistic. the problem people have is that they put overwhelming focus on losing weight and reaching some arbitrary number...they talk a good talk about making a lifestyle change, but really don't have a clue what that means. they reach this arbitrary number and they feel as though they've reached the finish line...they've failed to really develop healthful habits that are sustainable into perpetuity...they go back to "normal" failing to realize that there has to be a new normal.
people reach this arbitrary number and they just go back to doing the things that made them fat in the first place...they don't continue to live a healthful lifestyle...after all, they lost the weight and they're "done". they fail to realize that they've just started. if people put more emphasis on overall health and well being and fitness and doing the things that healthy and fit people do then there wouldn't be such an issue. you can't go back...eating well and regular exercise are the lifestyle that everyone goes on so much about...not logging or low carbing or this or that...good livin' is the lifestyle and weight management is simply a bi-product of good livin'
I've maintained over two years...i don't log...i do pretty much the same stuff i did when i was losing. I eat very healthfully...i exercise regularly...i eat out on special occasions and when it's more, I overwhelmingly try to make the best decision possible. i practice self control and portion control. i monitor my weight regularly. I'm all about healthy and wellness and doing the things that perpetuate that...that is my new normal and it is a far cry different than where I was 3 years ago. I have an understanding that there is no finish line...there is no end...what I do, I do into perpetuity.
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