MFP Stop predicting my weight

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Replies

  • Machka9
    Machka9 Posts: 25,599 Member
    Aaron_K123 wrote: »
    Lizarking wrote: »
    It's not a lie, it's mathematical formula that makes the mistaken assumption that weight loss is linear.

    It also assumes perfectly accurate recording of both calories in and out and it also assumes that that perfectly accurate recording will continue for 5 weeks straight with the exact same deficit hit every single day.

    Ideally we should be recording our calories accurately every day for as many weeks as it takes. :)


    I must have over-recorded my food and under-recorded my exercise because, like I said, those predictions were pretty pessimistic. I was consistently hitting the predicted amount in about 3 weeks instead of 5.

  • Asher_Ethan
    Asher_Ethan Posts: 2,430 Member
    MissusMoon wrote: »
    Redhededkewty wrote: »
    It is BS and they are irresponsible for doing it. Everyone is different. I understand the under calorie warning, but the lie about your weight projection is just as bad. It's depressing and defeatingly frustrating.

    You know what though? By the math, it's correct. Unfortunately, every day isn't the same.

    I've lost 101lbs since April 3rd of this year. I've beat their predictions. I've never complained about them. MOVE ON.

    This. My projected weight loss was always pretty accurate when I stuck to the deficit.
  • DebSozo
    DebSozo Posts: 2,578 Member
    OP, if you are having difficulty matching the MFP predictions, then recalculate your MFP goal. You could possibly be accidentally overestimating exercise calories, eating back too many, and are not at a deficit. (I'm assuming your 1200 is net calories after exercising and not before).

    Most people are simply not weighing food properly or are not logging everything or are overestimating calorie exercise burn. At any rate it takes a while to figure out YOUR individual daily calorie burn. I average out my calories for the week (add every day's results and divide by 7) because mine are not the same every day. That way if I eat a bit too much one meal I can shave off a few calories here and there spread out over the rest of the week to compensate.

    Another consideration is that you might not match the algorithm MFP follows for variables such as age, height, and activity level. You might have an undiagnosed thyroid issue, for instance. It may take detective work and a little time to tweak.

    As mentioned already, don't go too low unless doctor supervised. As a safeguard I have figured out my max and minimum daily calories from calculators on outside sites. I calculated my resting metabolic rate (rmr) and usually try not to go under that. And I estimated my daily max calories to be my upper end which is my TDEE. As long as I stay between my max and min daily/weekly calories, then I am in a deficit. It is best for me to vary my calories every day or my body adjusts and gets used to a set value.

    If you have unrecorded "cheat" days/meals you will sabotage and slow down efforts. My deficit is only a couple hundred calories daily, so personally I can't afford to go over my TDEE often.

    If you are frustrated with not hitting what MFP predicts and don't have a lot to lose, please consider recalculating for a 0.5 or 1 pound a week loss. It is difficult to run too long at an aggressive deficit. Recalculate goals and adjust expectations as you drop weight.

  • snickerscharlie
    snickerscharlie Posts: 8,578 Member
    Aaron_K123 wrote: »
    So here is the thing. MFP bottoms out at 1200 calories. That means that if your TDEE is 1600 calories and you tell it you want to lose 1 pound a week that is a deficit of 500 calories a day. But it won't recommend 1000 calories a day, so it gives you 1200. If you switched it to lose 2 pounds a day that would in theory be a daily intake of 600 calories but again MFP will give you 1200...because it doesn't go below that.

    If your goal is 1200 chances are you bottomed out MFP and its not actually giving you the amount of calories that would fit with your stated goals and therefore expectation. Probably why it is "lying" to you. But yeah feel free to ignore it, its a digital readout on a computer screen autogenerated...it isn't a person judging you. Or, alternatively, if you cannot ignore it then just don't click the "complete my day" button....you don't have to click that.

    This ^^^ !
  • RoxieDawn
    RoxieDawn Posts: 15,488 Member
    What's wrong with a crystal ball that tells you your future, particularly how much you will weight in exactly 5 weeks from now? :(

    http://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/1318741/in-5-weeks-youll-lose-10lbs-why-is-it-not-working/p1

    Or just stop pressing Complete This Diary button.. /end
  • lemurcat12
    lemurcat12 Posts: 30,886 Member
    Redhededkewty wrote: »
    but the lie about your weight projection is just as bad.

    It's not a lie, it's just math, assuming the estimate they have for your maintenance is correct and the inputs are correct. Obviously it couldn't be anything else. I mostly ignored it. Who remembers what was predicted 5 weeks ago?
    It's depressing and defeatingly frustrating.

    I didn't experience it that way at all, but if you do, definitely don't close the diary.
  • StaciMarie1974
    StaciMarie1974 Posts: 4,138 Member
    edited October 2016
    The projection assumes your calories in and out are 100% accurate and the deficit 'today' will be the deficit for each day over the next 5 weeks. Such accuracy is not really possible and that level of consistency is also unlikely. Even if you are meticulous there will be errors in your calories in. And even with the best efforts, calories out are a guestimate.

    If you don't want to see the prediction, don't 'complete' your day. Problem solved.
    Redhededkewty wrote: »
    I started dieting in June. I set a 1,200 daily calorie limit and am usually well under that. Every day I close my diary, and it tells me what I should weigh in 5 weeks - but I don't. I have lost 26 pounds, but according to MFP I should be 10 lbs lighter. This nonsense has been VERY VERY VERY DEPRESSING AND I NEED IT TO STOP.

  • TR0berts
    TR0berts Posts: 7,739 Member
    I find it humorous. Or, I did, back when I was tracking.
  • DebSozo
    DebSozo Posts: 2,578 Member
    TR0berts wrote: »
    I find it humorous. Or, I did, back when I was tracking.

    I found it to be funny also. It was funny in a sobering, shocking kind of way. It kept me on track, so I liked it.
  • VintageFeline
    VintageFeline Posts: 6,771 Member
    I never complete my diary, it's a pointless feature to me and it wasn't/isn't motivational as my daily intake varies a lot so some days it would tell me i'll gain a bunch and others lose more than I ever actually will.

    Unless you find it motivational I don't really see the purpose of completing your day as it were, it serves no other purpose than to give that prediction.
  • lemurcat12
    lemurcat12 Posts: 30,886 Member
    edited October 2016
    Like Machka I found that MFP underestimated losses at first, because I had mistakenly put myself in as sedentary and was not, probably. Later I used TDEE and stopped logging exercise (or logged 1 calorie), and so it told me I'd not lose or even gain when I was perfectly on track and losing 1-2 lbs/week, which was sort of annoying. I knew it was irrational to find it annoying, but since I did I stopped closing.
  • OcalaFL
    OcalaFL Posts: 173 Member
    edited October 2016
    It has been pretty close to on point for me. I eat similarly daily. weigh food if I eat more or exercise more than common math dictates the difference. I use the projection as a guideline(guestimation) to see if I push within a given range.
  • louise5779
    louise5779 Posts: 82 Member
    Believe me, it IS boring eating the same things ay in and day out. I prepare my weekly meals on Sunday and spread the food out over the week because I don't really like to cook that much.

    I use a different food diary now, but I recall being amused every time I hit that button at the end of the day.....

    OP, congrats on your 26 pound loss. I suggest you pay no attention to that silly part of the MFP food app program. Focus on what you can change and not that which is beyond your control. :) [/quote]

    Funny you should say this, have you heard of bore yourself thin? I read an article at the hairdressers the other day in one of those trashy magazines. Headed up bore yourself thin. It claimed that all celebs do this. Stated that Kim K does it everyday on kuwtk by ordering the same salad at the gym for the past however many series and that Jenifer Aniston had the same salad for 10 years on the set of friends. Apparently you bored your taste buds and end up never finishing a meal or craving anything different. Never watched kuwtk so don't know whether it's true.
  • Alatariel75
    Alatariel75 Posts: 18,219 Member
    louise5779 wrote: »
    Believe me, it IS boring eating the same things ay in and day out. I prepare my weekly meals on Sunday and spread the food out over the week because I don't really like to cook that much.

    I use a different food diary now, but I recall being amused every time I hit that button at the end of the day.....

    OP, congrats on your 26 pound loss. I suggest you pay no attention to that silly part of the MFP food app program. Focus on what you can change and not that which is beyond your control. :)

    Funny you should say this, have you heard of bore yourself thin? I read an article at the hairdressers the other day in one of those trashy magazines. Headed up bore yourself thin. It claimed that all celebs do this. Stated that Kim K does it everyday on kuwtk by ordering the same salad at the gym for the past however many series and that Jenifer Aniston had the same salad for 10 years on the set of friends. Apparently you bored your taste buds and end up never finishing a meal or craving anything different. Never watched kuwtk so don't know whether it's true. [/quote]

    That sounds like hell!!
  • Evamutt
    Evamutt Posts: 2,733 Member
    I like the prediction, it inspires me.. i write it on my calendar & when 5 weeks are here, i compare. I eat the same type of things most days. It's only a little bit off
  • cwolfman13
    cwolfman13 Posts: 41,865 Member
    Lol...it says "if everyday were like today"...it's based on a very simple algorithm and assumes everything will be exactly the same every single day...obviously not everything is going to be exactly the same every day...I can't believe this actually bothers people...there's actual important *kitten* to worry about.

    The math is simple...but it's impossible for every day to be like today...and it assumes 100% accuracy on CI and CO...obviously also not very realistic...stop getting bent over something that is basically a gimmick...
  • cwolfman13
    cwolfman13 Posts: 41,865 Member
    kimny72 wrote: »
    OP, this is like shaking a Magic Eight Ball and getting so upset that it's prediction wasn't accurate that you start ranting about how it ruined your life on the internet.

    It's a gimmicky equation on a free app. It's like the FB quizes that say your relationship will last based on how you answered 5 multiple choice questions. Don't give inanimate objects so much power over your state of mind!

    Having said that, you really shouldn't be "well under" 1200 calories regularly. Possibly it's okay to be a little under (depending on your stats) but well under is worrying. Hopefully you are, but just in case - Please take care of yourself!

    Oh, this is totally like my favorite post on the matter....

  • snickerscharlie
    snickerscharlie Posts: 8,578 Member
    Sometimes I complete my diary for *kitten* and giggles just to look and see the stupid prediction. It's amusing. :)
  • cerise_noir
    cerise_noir Posts: 5,468 Member
    edited October 2016
    Redhededkewty wrote: »
    It is BS and they are irresponsible for doing it. Everyone is different. I understand the under calorie warning, but the lie about your weight projection is just as bad. It's depressing and defeatingly frustrating.

    Wow. Chill. You don't have to press the 'complete your diary' button.
    And, it's not a lie. It's based on a mathematical equation. The only flaw with this is that it does not take into account that weight loss isn't linear. Also, use a food scale for all solid and semi solid food for more accuracy.
  • Vanilla_Lattes
    Vanilla_Lattes Posts: 251 Member
    I like it because days I over eat it slaps me in the face and I try harder the next day. It's opening to see my weight progress backslide
  • Alatariel75
    Alatariel75 Posts: 18,219 Member
    bpetrosky wrote: »
    Life is too short to be mad at bad math.

    Unless the bad math is on your tax return. And not in your favor.

    Then be mad.

    Happened to me this year. Previous employer underpaid my tax. Ironically, my previous employer was the government. Asshats. Not happy at all.
  • markrgeary1
    markrgeary1 Posts: 853 Member
    That's what happens when you extrapolate an inaccurate estimate. The results are unpredictable(think I read part of that somewhere

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