What rate can someone lose at.
Tacklewasher
Posts: 7,122 Member
Bear with me here. I'm a numbers and planning guy. But so far my plan has been blown out of the water in a good way. I've planned for 2 lbs per week since late Sept when I got a decent scale and could weigh myself, but have exceeded that. Oct I lost ~15lb, Nov ~ 14 lb and so far in Dec I'm down ~8 and hope to lose 10. That will have me down ~55 since I started late August.
This will get me to 275. I'm 6' and 51 yrs old. My goal right now is 220 so I'm just overweight. That won't be my final goal, but will be a hell of a lot better than the 330 I started at and will mean I will have lost 1/3 of my body weight. If I can do that I will be pretty frikken happy.
I want to map out 2017. I know some folks don't like doing this, but it is how I work. I need the goals to work towards.
I know I will not lose at the rate I have going forward, but what is a reasonable rate?
I figure 2 lbs is still reasonable @ 275. If my "ideal" weight is 185, then that is still 90 lbs.
When does 2 lbs become unreasonable?
I'm thinking at 250 I slow down the weight loss to 1.5.
235 I slow down to 1?
I'm putting in some diet breaks after reading about them and reading what @SideSteel had to say. Probably 2 wks every 12. I may change my mind when I come to them, but that will be my plan.
I will be continuing ~30 mins on the treadmill every morning, some light weights 3 times a week (currently doing this one www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0bhE67HuDY) and plan to start running a couple days a week. I don't really have a goal date to be at 220, but want a target.
Hope this makes sense and is not too convoluted.
My question is how long can I expect to lose at 2 lbs, 1.5 lbs and 1 lb?
Thanks
This will get me to 275. I'm 6' and 51 yrs old. My goal right now is 220 so I'm just overweight. That won't be my final goal, but will be a hell of a lot better than the 330 I started at and will mean I will have lost 1/3 of my body weight. If I can do that I will be pretty frikken happy.
I want to map out 2017. I know some folks don't like doing this, but it is how I work. I need the goals to work towards.
I know I will not lose at the rate I have going forward, but what is a reasonable rate?
I figure 2 lbs is still reasonable @ 275. If my "ideal" weight is 185, then that is still 90 lbs.
When does 2 lbs become unreasonable?
I'm thinking at 250 I slow down the weight loss to 1.5.
235 I slow down to 1?
I'm putting in some diet breaks after reading about them and reading what @SideSteel had to say. Probably 2 wks every 12. I may change my mind when I come to them, but that will be my plan.
I will be continuing ~30 mins on the treadmill every morning, some light weights 3 times a week (currently doing this one www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0bhE67HuDY) and plan to start running a couple days a week. I don't really have a goal date to be at 220, but want a target.
Hope this makes sense and is not too convoluted.
My question is how long can I expect to lose at 2 lbs, 1.5 lbs and 1 lb?
Thanks
5
Replies
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good rule of thumb i have heard is 1 percent weight per week max . the rate you loose depend on your intake and settings on MFP to get your calories . i set mine to 1.5 and i eat those calories and its pretty spot on as rate loss goes , i was set at 2 pounds but i needed or wanted the extra calories , works better for me
good luck3 -
Are you eating back at least some of your exercise?
That could account for your loss being over the 2 lbs predicted.
If you are using an off site TDEE eaten stir or a step/exercise devise the above doesn't apply.
As you move along reassess your calories every 10 then 5 lbs so your deficit is keeping pace with your expected loss. (Don't forget to keep your device up to date too if you use one.
1.5 will be good for between 75-50lbs to lose.
Move to 1 lbs a week once you are down to the last 50lbs to lose.
Once you hit the last 20 look at changing to .5.
These estimates are not written in stone, just reasonable approximations.
Have fun with your planning.
Cheers, h.4 -
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First of all EXCELLENT WORK and CONGRATULATIONS! Secondly, I find that I can lose on average one pound for every 3,500 calorie deficit that I make. Look over your food and exercise entries does this coincide with your deficits? If not, I would adjust (maybe add/subtract 200 cals or so). Otherwise you can lose at the rate you feel comfortable with. MFP is designed to lose a max of 2 lbs per week. As you get closer to your goal you will want to slow down a bit in order to keep it off. When graphed this should follow an exponential decay type function as you approach your goal. Research shows this is the best and most sustainable way to achieve long term success.1
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I think it's reasonable for most people to land somewhere in between .5 and 1.5% change in BW per week.3
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in other words if you go to low, you'll screw up your metabolism. The loss should taper off, as you get to within 20 lbs or so take it off slowly and do so with exercise rather than going below say 1,800 cals a day because eventually you will eat normally again and you'll need to have adopted a lifestyle where you can realistically maintain your loss and preserve your hard work0
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middlehaitch wrote: »Are you eating back at least some of your exercise?
That could account for your loss being over the 2 lbs predicted.
If you are using an off site TDEE eaten stir or a step/exercise devise the above doesn't apply.
As you move along reassess your calories every 10 then 5 lbs so your deficit is keeping pace with your expected loss. (Don't forget to keep your device up to date too if you use one.
1.5 will be good for between 75-50lbs to lose.
Move to 1 lbs a week once you are down to the last 50lbs to lose.
Once you hit the last 20 look at changing to .5.
These estimates are not written in stone, just reasonable approximations.
Have fun with your planning.
Cheers, h.
Yep, this is another way of stating it, excellent advice!0 -
It depends on:
how long you can maintain a 1000 calorie a day below maintenance deficit for the 2 lb a week loss. I'm not sure the stats at your age, height, activity level, and weight, but your deficit will get smaller as you lose weight (as I'm sure you know) and you won't want to go under 1500 calories a day (as a man) so feasibly you could run the numbers to get your maintenance calories at 275 lbs , 265 lbs, 255 lbs, 245 lbs, etc. to figure out when keeping a 1000 calorie deficit a day would no longer be feasible.
Once you have those numbers you should be able to tell when you should switch to 1.5 lbs a week and 1 lb a week loss.
Of course, you may want to switch sooner if you get to x amount of calories and feel it isn't enough. Also, the numbers may not be *spot* on as sometimes a calculator will say you need to eat x calories to lose weight and you really need to eat fewer or can eat more and still lose x amount of lbs a week, but it should give you a good idea.0 -
Www.trendweight.com (synchs via Fitbit so if you don't have one just open a free Fitbit account and synch it to MFP)
Or
Weightographer.com
Or if you like apps happyscale or libra
From numbers and data gal to numbers and data guy ...you're welcome
3 -
Somewhere in the region of 1% bodyweight loss per week is a good rule of thumb.
I personally wouldn't knowingly slow your rate of loss down purposefully as your body will do this itself. A diet break every 12-16 weeks is a good idea for psychological and physiological reasons.
Good luck to you.2 -
1% of body weight is usually pretty safe. But why overthink it? I was about your weight before I lost weight. I stuck to a 1000 calorie per day deficit and it got old after a while, but the alternative was that I wouldn't reach my goal. Just keep moving forward.2
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Tacklewasher wrote: »I know I will not lose at the rate I have going forward, but what is a reasonable rate?
I figure 2 lbs is still reasonable @ 275. If my "ideal" weight is 185, then that is still 90 lbs.
When does 2 lbs become unreasonable?
I'm thinking at 250 I slow down the weight loss to 1.5.
235 I slow down to 1?
This makes sense to me, especially if you want to preserve muscle as well as possible.
What I personally did (after starting like you did -- losing over 2 despite MFP telling me I'd lose 1.8 at 1200 and despite eating back some exercise calories) was figure that once I had a consistent rate I was happy with (say 2 lb when I was still obese), that I'd stick around the same calories and just let the rate of loss decline as I lost.
So it might be interesting for you to pick a calorie number you like (if exercise is consistent) and run a comparison to TDEE at various weights to see what you could expect sticking at that number for 2017. Basically I started eating at 1600 and just stayed there (I am a 5'3 woman with a goal of 120, so obviously your number would be different.)0 -
1% of bodyweight will have me losing over 2 lbs per week right up to my goal. Not sure that is doable. I like @lemurcat12 and @everher ideas about figuring out calories at each weight, keeping what I eat the same and seeing what the result should be. Up to now I've been eating ~2000 so eating back some of my exercising, but I have been increasing that as I go along as well so it's kept me at about that level as the base # goes down.
Some more Excel work for me. Goodie.3 -
Tacklewasher wrote: »1% of bodyweight will have me losing over 2 lbs per week right up to my goal. Not sure that is doable. I like @lemurcat12 and @everher ideas about figuring out calories at each weight, keeping what I eat the same and seeing what the result should be. Up to now I've been eating ~2000 so eating back some of my exercising, but I have been increasing that as I go along as well so it's kept me at about that level as the base # goes down.
Some more Excel work for me. Goodie.
That sounds rational.
In case it helps, I believe that what's behind some of these rules of thumb is that there's some research suggesting that a person can metabolize a maximum of about 30-some calories per pound of body fat per day, and beyond that one risks burning more-than-minimum lean body mass. (The rules of thumb can be quite conservative, based on that measure, depending on your size/weight.)0 -
trigden1991 wrote: »Somewhere in the region of 1% bodyweight loss per week is a good rule of thumb.
I personally wouldn't knowingly slow your rate of loss down purposefully as your body will do this itself. A diet break every 12-16 weeks is a good idea for psychological and physiological reasons.
Good luck to you.
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I lost 1.4 per week (60 year old woman) until I had about 35 pounds left to lose then it really slowed down. I am at a place where I am just overweight and no longer considered obese so I'm fine with a slower rate of loss. Just keep in the back of your head that it may slow down as you get closer to goal. Congrats on you loss!2
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I know one is leaner, blah blah, but how does ones BODY knows that you are on the last 10 pounds? It baffles me.
Anyway, it WILL slow down and probably not according to your plan. You're doing great, just don't get discouraged when that happens.1 -
I know one is leaner, blah blah, but how does ones BODY knows that you are on the last 10 pounds? It baffles me.
Anyway, it WILL slow down and probably not according to your plan. You're doing great, just don't get discouraged when that happens.
It's not that it knows, it's more that you are smaller so a pound is proportionately more. So if you are a really short lady trying to get from 100lb to 80lb, it will take longer than a big man trying to get from 200 to 180.
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Also the smaller or lighter you are the less calories it takes to maintain your weight so the deficit gets smaller thus weight loss takes longer.6
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I know one is leaner, blah blah, but how does ones BODY knows that you are on the last 10 pounds? It baffles me.
Anyway, it WILL slow down and probably not according to your plan. You're doing great, just don't get discouraged when that happens.
It's not that it knows, it's more that you are smaller so a pound is proportionately more. So if you are a really short lady trying to get from 100lb to 80lb, it will take longer than a big man trying to get from 200 to 180.
I'm so glad for this thread, because I was wondering about the phrase "stubborn pounds." I guess there is such a thing, and one can expect it to be harder near the end? (I want to get to 125 from 146.)0 -
cheryldumais wrote: »Also the smaller or lighter you are the less calories it takes to maintain your weight so the deficit gets smaller thus weight loss takes longer.
This is also true, the margin of error is smaller when you can't knock 500 or 1,000 kcal off each day because it wouldn't leave you with enough to keep your body healthy.2 -
fastingrabbit wrote: »I know one is leaner, blah blah, but how does ones BODY knows that you are on the last 10 pounds? It baffles me.
Anyway, it WILL slow down and probably not according to your plan. You're doing great, just don't get discouraged when that happens.
It's not that it knows, it's more that you are smaller so a pound is proportionately more. So if you are a really short lady trying to get from 100lb to 80lb, it will take longer than a big man trying to get from 200 to 180.
I'm so glad for this thread, because I was wondering about the phrase "stubborn pounds." I guess there is such a thing, and one can expect it to be harder near the end? (I want to get to 125 from 146.)
In a way, that's why I picked the goal I did (220 lbs, still overweight). While I probably won't have that as an end goal, if I get there in 2017 I will be thrilled. Down from there can take 5 yrs for all I care, getting there will be a huge milestone and mean 1/3 of my body weight gone. But it also should mean I don't have an issue with the stubborn pounds before my goal.2 -
fastingrabbit wrote: »I know one is leaner, blah blah, but how does ones BODY knows that you are on the last 10 pounds? It baffles me.
Anyway, it WILL slow down and probably not according to your plan. You're doing great, just don't get discouraged when that happens.
It's not that it knows, it's more that you are smaller so a pound is proportionately more. So if you are a really short lady trying to get from 100lb to 80lb, it will take longer than a big man trying to get from 200 to 180.
I'm so glad for this thread, because I was wondering about the phrase "stubborn pounds." I guess there is such a thing, and one can expect it to be harder near the end? (I want to get to 125 from 146.)
Part of it is that you have a lower TDEE, but it's true that your body has no idea if your goal is 112 or 138, both perfectly reasonable goals for someone of my height, for example. I think a lot of it is that when you are close to goal sometimes the rate is quite slow unless you go low and you are pretty happy with how you look, so it's harder to maintain motivation. I know that's what happened to me around 125 and why I've not been motivated enough to get to my 120 goal for ages now. (I also did better losing at around 1 lb/week just because I could see the loss more easily than when I was trying to do around .5 lb, but that's my failing, I'm sure.)2 -
I know one is leaner, blah blah, but how does ones BODY knows that you are on the last 10 pounds? It baffles me.
Anyway, it WILL slow down and probably not according to your plan. You're doing great, just don't get discouraged when that happens.
It's not that it knows the Lbs...it's that when most people are on the last 10 Lbs, they're already relatively lean and at a healthy BMI and basically just trying to get leaner. Often there is no real rhyme or reason here either, other than they set some arbitrary number as their goal.
From an evolutionary standpoint, the human body doesn't really like being super lean and will fight that...being purposely lean for aesthetic reasons is a pretty new phenomenon in human evolution...our bodies would prefer to hold onto some fat for protection...and the older we get, the more body fat our bodies want to hold onto which is why when you look at BF% charts, ideal and acceptable levels of body fat go up as we age.
Being relatively lean and trying to get leaner puts a lot more stress on the body than being over fat and trying to lose weight does...when you're over fat, you have plenty of body fat to mobilize to make up for deficiencies in energy...not so much when you're already relatively lean. Greater stress results in increased cortisol levels and increased cortisol levels will inhibit fat loss to some extent.
You also have to consider how long someone has been dieting...prolonged dieting is also a stress on the body that not only raises cortisol levels, but it also jacks around with a whole bunch of other hormones that impede fat loss. Also, prolonged dieting will ultimately lead to some measure of metabolic adaptation...your body is very good at slowing down certain processes to conserve energy...I'm personally in the "diet break" camp to help combat some of this or at least mitigate it.
I'm sure there are a host of other things going on as well...4 -
FWIW, weight loss doesn't always slow down automagically on its own as one approaches goal. I slowed my weight loss intentionally, and actually still overshot goal (aiming for a BMI of 20.0, hit closer to 19 before eating my way back up a little). Slowing happens (without trying) for lots of people . . . but don't assume it's inevitable or universal.1
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There's really no reason you can't go at 2/week until goal, assuming you're still overweight. Why don't you create a trend chart using your stats thus far-- I bet you can continue on as you are, at least till you are within close shot of your goal. You may WANT to add more cals or whatever, but I think you're asking if it's possible? If so, yes.0
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FWIW, weight loss doesn't always slow down automagically on its own as one approaches goal. I slowed my weight loss intentionally, and actually still overshot goal (aiming for a BMI of 20.0, hit closer to 19 before eating my way back up a little). Slowing happens (without trying) for lots of people . . . but don't assume it's inevitable or universal.
Automagically.. my new word of the day
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Tacklewasher wrote: »I know I will not lose at the rate I have going forward, but what is a reasonable rate?
I figure 2 lbs is still reasonable @ 275. If my "ideal" weight is 185, then that is still 90 lbs.
When does 2 lbs become unreasonable?
I'm thinking at 250 I slow down the weight loss to 1.5.
235 I slow down to 1?
I'm putting in some diet breaks after reading about them and reading what @SideSteel had to say. Probably 2 wks every 12. I may change my mind when I come to them, but that will be my plan.
I will be continuing ~30 mins on the treadmill every morning, some light weights 3 times a week (currently doing this one www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0bhE67HuDY) and plan to start running a couple days a week. I don't really have a goal date to be at 220, but want a target.
Hope this makes sense and is not too convoluted.
My question is how long can I expect to lose at 2 lbs, 1.5 lbs and 1 lb?
Thanks
Once I figured things out a bit with the help of MFP, the forums, and some reading, I decided that I had no desire to be eating under 2000 Cal a day and in fact I would rather be eating in the 2300+ range. Which incidentally happens to be more calories than a sedentary person at my goal weight could eat before gaining.
With what I ate and the amount of walking I did, I found my speed of weight loss more than satisfactory, and my setup allowed me to spend some time figuring out some "tricks"/"foods"/"activities"/"ways of thinking" that work for me and which I have no intention of changing when i "get" to maintenance..
While weight loss is a necessary first step and pre-condition... the long term game is setting up for maintenance....'
I second the Sued0nimous bunny's advice re: getting a trending weight app.
My n=1 experience is that as I approached the bottom of the obese range there was a natural slow down to my weight loss. And another one occurred just below the halfway point in the overweight range. Coincidentally, scans around those times showed a marked deterioration of my fat to lean mass lost ratio.
All in all your plan sounds great... but I would be much less concerned with the rate of weight loss than I would be with setting myself up for future success.
And whether you're losing 0.5lbs or 1.5lbs a week on average.... they are both quite significant losses (26lbs a year and 78lbs a year respectively).
If a couple of years ago I walked up to you and said: "Next year you will lose 60lbs". Would you have been disappointed that I didn't say you would lose 108lbs?2 -
So I've played in Excel.
Average exercise calories earned according to MFP for Nov 1 - Dec 21 is 804 per day. I know from testing what MFP shows to what my Polar H7 shows, that MFP (for me) is about 20% overstated. So that gives about 670 cals earned per day over BMR + sedentary (my MFP base).
So, with a goal of eating ~2000 cals per day, I've worked backwards to what my weekly loss should be to cover my BMR + 20% + 500 cals from exercise. Has me @ 220 mid August.
Now to see how close I come in the end.
And, please understand. This is an intellectual exercise for me and I like doing this *kitten*. Having numbers like this to play with is part of who I am so don't get concerned I'm overthinking it, or going to punish myself if I don't hit these goals. In a way, being able to do this makes weight loss easier FOR ME.
I can also tell you what my fuel mileage is on every fill up of the truck I'm driving, and what the trucks computer said in comparison.8 -
Tacklewasher wrote: »So I've played in Excel.
Average exercise calories earned according to MFP for Nov 1 - Dec 21 is 804 per day. I know from testing what MFP shows to what my Polar H7 shows, that MFP (for me) is about 20% overstated. So that gives about 670 cals earned per day over BMR + sedentary (my MFP base).
So, with a goal of eating ~2000 cals per day, I've worked backwards to what my weekly loss should be to cover my BMR + 20% + 500 cals from exercise. Has me @ 220 mid August.
Now to see how close I come in the end.
And, please understand. This is an intellectual exercise for me and I like doing this *kitten*. Having numbers like this to play with is part of who I am so don't get concerned I'm overthinking it, or going to punish myself if I don't hit these goals. In a way, being able to do this makes weight loss easier FOR ME.
I can also tell you what my fuel mileage is on every fill up of the truck I'm driving, and what the trucks computer said in comparison.
It's always good to see another Excel fan
Don't forget to report back with your findings. 2
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