Study: Probability of Obese People Reaching ‘Normal’ Weight Less Than 1%

WASHINGTON — Programs like Weight Watchers and Jenny Craig are designed to help overweight and obese people shed extra pounds with the help of a support system — but a new study published in the American Journal of Public Health suggests that most obese people who don’t get some kind of weight loss surgery will never achieve a “normal” weight.
The Centers for Disease Control classify a BMI of between 25 and 29.9 as “overweight,” anything above that as obese.
Data for 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women from the United Kingdom were analyzed over the course of nine years, and researchers found that the annual probability of reaching a normal weight was just 1 in 210 for obese men and 1 in 124 for obese women (obese = 30.0–34.9 BMI).
For those with morbid obesity (BMI = 40.0–44.9), those odds decreased to 1 in 1,290 for men and 1 in 677 for women.
And, at least 50 percent of patients who managed to achieve a 5 percent weight loss were shown to have regained the weight within two years.
“Our findings indicate that current nonsurgical obesity treatment strategies are failing to achieve sustained weight loss for the majority of obese patients,” the study says.
“…even when treatment is accessed, evidence suggests behavioral weight loss interventions focusing on caloric restriction and increased physical activity are unlikely to yield clinically significant reductions in body weight.”
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Replies

  • pincushion14
    pincushion14 Posts: 326 Member
    I AM ABNORMAL! FANTASTIC!
    lol
  • lemurcat12
    lemurcat12 Posts: 30,886 Member
    This is the study about people who weren't even necessarily dieting? So what.

    If you want counter-examples, MFP is full of them.
  • zaxx1953
    zaxx1953 Posts: 389 Member
    The probability of me going to whatever weight BMI states is desirable for me is probably 0 percent unless I get cancer, and thank god for it.

    Alphas gonna alpha and I don't want to be a hipster who weighs 20 lbs more than my GF.
  • lisabinco
    lisabinco Posts: 1,016 Member
    lemurcat12 wrote: »
    This is the study about people who weren't even necessarily dieting? So what.
    If you want counter-examples, MFP is full of them.

    After three years and a lifestyle change, I have not gained the weight back.
    (Boy, am I glad I didn't read that study beforehand.)
  • zaxx1953
    zaxx1953 Posts: 389 Member
    edited July 2015
    BMI is a joke, BMI is a joke, BMI is a joke....

    Sing it with me now.

    I was 6" 265lbs in college and not obese....in fact to be within the "healthy" guidelines of BMI I would to have to lose ALL the body fat on my body and then lots of muscle, bone, tendons and blood.

    BMI is nothing.

    I could dunk a nerf ball with Trex arms, bench over 4 plates and had a pulse in the low 50s all while being able to put my foot to my ear.
  • mamadon
    mamadon Posts: 1,422 Member
    Well then, me and many many others on this site are exceptions I guess. Many people dont lose their excess weight I suppose, especially those of us who are or were morbidly obese. I dont believe for a second thats because caloric restriction doesnt work. It's because most people dont either do it correctly ( fad diets etc.) or because people give up and don't see it through. But this site is full of people who are living proof it does work if you stick with it.
  • PAV8888
    PAV8888 Posts: 11,134 Member
    I guess that neither you @Kotuliak , nor you @zaxx1953 believe deep down inside that you are special snowflakes.

    That's OK. You're just increasing the odds for this special snowflake who has no doubt that he will be 1 in 1290 sometime in 2015 or 2016 :smiley:
  • zaxx1953
    zaxx1953 Posts: 389 Member
    PAV8888 wrote: »
    I guess that neither you @Kotuliak , nor you @zaxx1953 believe deep down inside that you are special snowflakes.

    That's OK. You're just increasing the odds for this special snowflake who has no doubt that he will be 1 in 1290 sometime in 2015 or 2016 :smiley:

    If a special snowflake means not wearing size 28 skinny jeans, I am all for it.

  • KateSimpson17
    KateSimpson17 Posts: 282 Member
    1) Posting this here is very insensitive. While most of the people commenting obviously believe they can overcome the odds do you know how many people are going to read this and feel even crappier about themselves than they already do?
    2) this article talks specifically about DIETING not a lifestyle change, which we all know is a failed approach anyway.
    3) To anyone who fits into the category of being discouraged by this: you are not a number. You are not a statistic. Just because 99% of people according to some study fail doesn't mean you will. You are a product of your own design, no one else can tell you that you can't succeed. Prove 'em wrong.
  • PAV8888
    PAV8888 Posts: 11,134 Member
    zaxx1953 wrote: »
    If a special snowflake means not wearing size 28 skinny jeans, I am all for it.

    Considering that at 26.7% BF I have not managed anything smaller than 36 I am fairly sure I'm not in danger <insert shark attack music>... or am I?

    <stay tuned for the next special snowflake episode coming to you live in a few months>
  • zaxx1953
    zaxx1953 Posts: 389 Member
    PAV8888 wrote: »
    zaxx1953 wrote: »
    If a special snowflake means not wearing size 28 skinny jeans, I am all for it.

    Considering that at 26.7% BF I have not managed anything smaller than 36 I am fairly sure I'm not in danger <insert shark attack music>... or am I?

    <stay tuned for the next special snowflake episode coming to you live in a few months>

    Cool story bro; we were all wondering....lol.

    I think the lowest i've ever been in 38 inches; of course I was benching over 4 plates at the time, so the shoulder to waist ratio probably made me look decent. I know I was teh sexing 7's-9's and that's the key criteria I use.
  • MissElectricEyeliner
    MissElectricEyeliner Posts: 122 Member
    As someone who is in the "morbidly obese" category on the BMI, with a starting BMI of 46.5ish, I would say that even being in the "overweight" category with a BMI of 26-27 is better than 46 even if it isn't in the "normal range". I honestly don't believe much in the BMI as it's a flawed system. Shout out to those that have gotten to their goal weight regardless of what they were told. I'm not letting any study slow down my weight loss.
  • Bshmerlie
    Bshmerlie Posts: 1,026 Member
    The truth is the stats are probably pretty accurate. Even on MFP most people probably never reach their goal weight and if they do what % of those eventually gain it back? Realistically we aren't special snowflakes. It is ultimately up to each of us to beat the statistics. So you gotta ask yourself one question.... are you going to be a part of that 1% who succeeds?
  • tomatoey
    tomatoey Posts: 5,459 Member
    I think it's ok to move the goalposts a bit, though. Overweight > obese - still reduces risk even if they never get to normal weight.
  • tomatoey
    tomatoey Posts: 5,459 Member
    edited July 2015
    never mind of course it's that one
  • Snow3y
    Snow3y Posts: 1,412 Member
    lel
  • Snow3y
    Snow3y Posts: 1,412 Member
    tomatoey wrote: »
    I think it's ok to move the goalposts a bit, though. Overweight > obese - still reduces risk even if they never get to normal weight.

    Not necessarily. It's like me telling you, okay, In school you no-longer need a 50% to pass your exam, you now only need 30%.
    There are going to be a lot of problems, trust me.
  • flumi_f
    flumi_f Posts: 1,930 Member
    Yipee!! I beat the odds. Overweight all of my life until January 2014! BMI 39 down to 23.5! No weightloss surgery, just a cal deficit using 5:2 and a healthy mix of cardio and strength.
  • zaxx1953
    zaxx1953 Posts: 389 Member
    Snow3y wrote: »
    tomatoey wrote: »
    I think it's ok to move the goalposts a bit, though. Overweight > obese - still reduces risk even if they never get to normal weight.

    Not necessarily. It's like me telling you, okay, In school you no-longer need a 50% to pass your exam, you now only need 30%.
    There are going to be a lot of problems, trust me.

    Actually, as best medical science can tell, being moderately over what BMI tells you to be and active doesn't really make you any more unhealthy than being really lean with the same activity levels...at least there aren't significant gaps at all.

    Sorry bro.