"If you're fat and lose weight, you're probably gonna get fat again"
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I'm a little dubious on the statistics that are being thrown around, i.e. whether the number who maintain is 0.1%, 2%, or 20%. But in any case it's clear that the recidivism rate is high.
Isn't it better to know this in any case? Isn't it good to know that the odds are bad, and that your best bet is to gird your loins and do whatever you must to be successful? Equip yourself with your weapons, know thine enemy, train well, and be prepared for battle.
Myself? I know that "Fat Jruzer" is always there, biding his time, waiting for an opportunity. I have met the enemy, and he is me.
These aren't odds. Your success isn't determined by rolling a die. It is entirely up to you. All that statistic says is that x% of people fail to keep up their determination for whatever reasons. If you can keep it up, your chance of succeeding is 100%. Even if there's life events that make it harder to keep up with it, it's still within your power at all times, maybe harder but always doable.0 -
@DeguelloTex and @stevencloser, I don't deny that you are correct. My point is that each individual needs to be prepared to be successful, and that knowing that others fail is a part of widsom, not defeatism. Let me offer a few analogies:
- They say that once you learn to ride a bicycle, you never forget how. I think this is generally accepted. Most people don't worry about remembering how to ride a bike, because the percentage of people who forget is low. Once you've learned you can not worry about maintaining your new skill.
- The percentage of marriages that end in divorce is very high. But yet I'd be willing to bet that very few people going into marriages think that they will be the ones whose marriages end in divorce. "That won't happen to us!" But I assert that it's prudent for married people to be aware that the divorce rate is high, to be aware of the causes of divorce, and to take measures to protect and strengthen their marriages.
- I have a PhD in a difficult technical field. I committed to it and did what I had to do to be successful. I had very difficult times in the process to be sure. I saw many classmates and colleagues fall along the way, for various reasons:some didn't work hard enough, some got distracted with other affairs in life, some probably shouldn't have been there in the first place. Doesn't it make sense that I knew it was hard, and that many would fail, so that I could prepare myself, learning from those who were not successful?0 -
I don't know that I disagree completely with your premise, I just don't think the fact that other people failed is relevant to me.- I have a PhD in a difficult technical field. I committed to it and did what I had to do to be successful. I had very difficult times in the process to be sure. I saw many classmates and colleagues fall along the way, for various reasons:some didn't work hard enough, some got distracted with other affairs in life, some probably shouldn't have been there in the first place. Doesn't it make sense that I knew it was hard, and that many would fail, so that I could prepare myself, learning from those who were not successful?
Yes, I agree that knowing there will be challenges would be helpful. I think people generally know that from their own experiences, though. If someone doesn't understand the scope and scale of the challenge then, for that person, knowing some outrageous percentage of people fail could help. Even then, though, once the challenge is understood, what those other people did or didn't do is completely independent of what a particular person does or doesn't do.
On the academic perspective, when I started college, I told my family, academic advisers, and whatnot that I was going to graduate with a 4.0. "Oh, that's so hard. Very few people do it. Don't set yourself up for disappointment." I graduated with a 4.0.
Law school. Same thing.
Learning to program. Essentially the same thing, just without explicit grades.
Really, fat doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell here. One day, I might be overweight per the BMI because of muscle mass, but I will never, ever, ever have a high bodyfat percentage again. It just won't happen, regardless of however many other people said the same thing and failed.
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Maybe eating is an addiction, maybe not. But it is true that, as with all things that take greater effort and education, most overweight will gain some weight back. It could be 10% of what was lost, or 150%. Our ancestors went through similar cycles. We are human, and we are prone to err in judgment.
The first part of a solution, however, is recognizing that there is a problem. Most people gain weight back. Is it for the same reasons as our ancestors? If not, what could be the cause?0 -
Most likely, the fact that most of the industrialized world doesn't go through the feast and famine cycle very much. It's all feast and almost no famine. You can buy more calories than you can carry. Add that to what may well be less activity overall and presto!RockstarWilson wrote: »The first part of a solution, however, is recognizing that there is a problem. Most people gain weight back. Is it for the same reasons as our ancestors? If not, what could be the cause?
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I think one of the best things that has been added to MFP in recent years is the maintenance thread. It certainly gave me pause for thought. Yes, I believed I approach this in a sustainable way...has always been my goal but when you are a hairs breath away from it (maintenance), it's funny what your mind does. I read that section to ready for it.
In some ways, the idea of maintenance puts me off ever reaching that point and then I think well how stupid, considering my loss plan is also my maintenance plan. I fall off but I can't deny what I now know and that gets me going again.
I see that maintenance thread daily and often think of all the diet books I've ever read - not a single one had a chapter on maintenance or spoke about long term adherence specifically. What happens when you get there? I think how did I come up with the notion myself because I did somehow, so it must have been scattered somewhere in my reading. I know some (authors) assume people understand this but they don't seem to reinforce the premise. That is what I feel should be the very first chapter. Can you do this forever...the choices you make?
What I know for certain is that if I'd have never tried because someone suggested it's futile (and I got told to accept being MO cos genetics - the very next day I set about defying genetics) then I would never have pushed myself to learn what I now know. I think, with the right understanding, it is possible for a greater number to conquer this with better information. We are lucky on MFP to have access to better information. I've read more science studies because of the easier access here than I could have otherwise. I was interested but I also had a naive faith in the health industry delivering the correct information. It's "health" for goodness sake...surely no BS when it comes to that?0 -
I think I'm confident that it will be a lifelong commitment and sometimes even a struggle once I get down to maintenance. I'm probably going to log my food for the rest of my life. Exercise will probably always be a battle. Realizing this, though, makes it easier. I really hope to be part of the 20% that has escaped a life of always being overweight.0
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I agree with @Kalikel. Everyone should be mindful of the high probability that they will regain. Everyone who says "well that only applies to OTHER people and not to me" needs to remember one thing: you weren't born obese, you became that way through your choices. In other words, you've already failed once. If you couldn't avoid it last time, why are you confident that you can avoid it this time?
I'm not saying don't try. If anything, I'm saying "try harder." I know that's my plan, because really, what other options do we have?
All the statistics are saying is that a PROPORTION of people will regain weight - the statistic doesn't apply to the individual. All individuals represent INDEPENDENT variables. My success or failure has absolutely no impact on your success or failure and vice versa.0 -
The fact that everyone in this thread thinks it won't be them tells you something! Some of them are wrong.0
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It doesn't take a genius to count them up and do the math.DeguelloTex wrote: »
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The fact that everyone in this thread thinks it won't be them tells you something! Some of them are wrong.
I don't think anyone denies it *could* be them - but I'm fairly positive a large number here would indicate that if they *do* regain, it's because they went back to their old ways.
Don't go back to the old ways, keep doing what got you to goal, and success is guaranteed.
The maintenance phase requires just as much diligence as the weight-loss phase.0 -
You might want to learn more about statistics and non-random samples before you pronounce what does and doesn't take genius.
It doesn't take a genius to count them up and do the math.DeguelloTex wrote: »
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It doesn't take a genius to count them up and do the math.DeguelloTex wrote: »
So which of us will fail? You can't apply statistics to individuals, it doesn't work that way.0 -
DeguelloTex wrote: »
You might want to learn more about statistics and non-random samples before you pronounce what does and doesn't take genius.
It doesn't take a genius to count them up and do the math.DeguelloTex wrote: »
This.
For example, the percentage of Americans below the poverty line says nothing about the percentage of residents of my neighborhood who are below the poverty line.
Similarly, the percentage of Americans who own a car says nothing about the percentage of residents of my neighborhood (in a large city with good--well, reasonable--public transportation and a strong encouragement of biking) who own a car. (I happen to know from the food desert information that my neighborhood is well under the average on this, even though we are not a food desert.)0 -
The fact that everyone in this thread thinks it won't be them tells you something! Some of them are wrong.
BB bro is comparing being obese to having a food addiction. Since I don't have such an addiction, I'm clearly out of his perimeters for "fatties who lose will regain. lulz" speech.0 -
Tell yourself whatever you want. Believe that everyone in this thread is one of the exceptions.DeguelloTex wrote: »
You might want to learn more about statistics and non-random samples before you pronounce what does and doesn't take genius.
It doesn't take a genius to count them up and do the math.DeguelloTex wrote: »
And tell yourself that thinking it makes you smarter than I am, if you want.
I'm out.
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It doesn't take a genius to count them up and do the math.DeguelloTex wrote: »
You still show a pretty big misunderstanding of how statistics works.0 -
Tell yourself whatever you want. Believe that everyone in this thread is one of the exceptions.DeguelloTex wrote: »
You might want to learn more about statistics and non-random samples before you pronounce what does and doesn't take genius.
It doesn't take a genius to count them up and do the math.DeguelloTex wrote: »
And tell yourself that thinking it makes you smarter than I am, if you want.
I'm out.
Look. Let's say something like... 70% of gym goers never bench press more than 100 kg in their life, or whatever.
Now you go to bodybuilding.com and tell them that. Do you think that 70% of the people on bodybuilding.com never bench press more than 100 kg?0
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