The odds of long-term weight loss success

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Replies

  • purpleannex
    purpleannex Posts: 61 Member
    What's long term, and what's a significant amount. Until those terms are defined you can't have a study.
  • try2again
    try2again Posts: 3,562 Member
    edited January 2018
    What's long term, and what's a significant amount. Until those terms are defined you can't have a study.

    The study links in my original post spelled out at least 10% of a person's body weight with maintenance of at least a year (though to me, "long-term" maintenance would mean something more along the lines of at least 3 years), but the discussion in the thread has pointed out these studies are actually pretty unscientific in nature. On the National Weight Loss Registry (again, these people come to the registry themselves, so it's not representative), the average weight loss reported is 66 lbs for an average length of 5.5 years.
  • try2again
    try2again Posts: 3,562 Member
    try2again wrote: »
    ryenday wrote: »
    try2again wrote: »
    ryenday wrote: »

    I don’t think it is the diet mindset, that makes this time different for me, it is the post diet mindset that is a radical change.

    This is why so often on MFP we encourage new ones not to make drastic changes in their diet or lifestyle (eliminating foods or food groups, going very low cal, shakes, etc) for the weight loss phase that they don't expect or want to continue for the rest of their lives. Ideally, the weight loss phase should be for learning & practicing the skills we will need to maintain a healthy weight for the rest of our lives, but that doesn't happen if we deliberately choose methods we don't intend to use indefinitely. And I agree... I'm not sure I ever heard the word "maintenance" before MFP either!

    Yeah, that is the MFP way, but I very much disagree with it as the best way for all possible scenarios. Drastic diet as much as wasn’t unhealthy to get to the maintenance phase as quick as possible was the only way for me. But my maintenance is only barely above the 1200 “minimum” being short and old. So the MFP way would have taken me almost three years to get to a normal weight (40-50 lb loss)

    I believe above you referred to your weight loss phase as "torture". I find that really sad. It's taken me about 8 years to take off about 65 lbs (in smaller chunks at a modest calorie deficit) and I still have about 40 to go. I have enough struggles in life without torturing myself, and I've gotten a lot of maintenance practice in as well. I know not everyone wants to wait that long, and that's fine too, but hopefully there's a happy medium to be had there (emphasis on the *happy* part). :)

    This just seems a perfect example of one way not being the best for everyone. You prefer a slow method, someone else prefers a fast method. Neither is right or wrong, they are simply different. The fact that her method works for her but makes you sad is somewhat odd but really neither here nor there.

    I think being sad is a pretty natural response to a person "torturing" themself. But at any rate, I acknowledged that people are different and some prefer a faster route.

    But there's a study I'd like to see... how long-term success rates compare between people who have taken a drastic approach vs those who took a more moderate approach. I'm not trying to be snarky or imply anything... I just think it would be genuinely interesting.
  • ryenday
    ryenday Posts: 1,540 Member
    edited January 2018
    try2again wrote: »
    try2again wrote: »
    ryenday wrote: »
    try2again wrote: »
    ryenday wrote: »

    I don’t think it is the diet mindset, that makes this time different for me, it is the post diet mindset that is a radical change.

    This is why so often on MFP we encourage new ones not to make drastic changes in their diet or lifestyle (eliminating foods or food groups, going very low cal, shakes, etc) for the weight loss phase that they don't expect or want to continue for the rest of their lives. Ideally, the weight loss phase should be for learning & practicing the skills we will need to maintain a healthy weight for the rest of our lives, but that doesn't happen if we deliberately choose methods we don't intend to use indefinitely. And I agree... I'm not sure I ever heard the word "maintenance" before MFP either!

    Yeah, that is the MFP way, but I very much disagree with it as the best way for all possible scenarios. Drastic diet as much as wasn’t unhealthy to get to the maintenance phase as quick as possible was the only way for me. But my maintenance is only barely above the 1200 “minimum” being short and old. So the MFP way would have taken me almost three years to get to a normal weight (40-50 lb loss)

    I believe above you referred to your weight loss phase as "torture". I find that really sad. It's taken me about 8 years to take off about 65 lbs (in smaller chunks at a modest calorie deficit) and I still have about 40 to go. I have enough struggles in life without torturing myself, and I've gotten a lot of maintenance practice in as well. I know not everyone wants to wait that long, and that's fine too, but hopefully there's a happy medium to be had there (emphasis on the *happy* part). :)

    This just seems a perfect example of one way not being the best for everyone. You prefer a slow method, someone else prefers a fast method. Neither is right or wrong, they are simply different. The fact that her method works for her but makes you sad is somewhat odd but really neither here nor there.

    I think being sad is a pretty natural response to a person "torturing" themself. But at any rate, I acknowledged that people are different and some prefer a faster route.

    But there's a study I'd like to see... how long-term success rates compare between people who have taken a drastic approach vs those who took a more moderate approach. I'm not trying to be snarky or imply anything... I just think it would be genuinely interesting.

    I think the numbers would favour a slow approach but they would be skewed. The casual non- commuted dieters would skew the results because they do always seem to go with the quick and fadish ways. I can’t think how a study could compare the serious committed dieters - success and long term success rates between the lose it fast or slow without getting mucked up with those who never really committed to the process. A study with well selected subjects, yes that would be interesting.
  • snarlingcoyote
    snarlingcoyote Posts: 399 Member
    One of the things I've noticed on studies about weight loss and maintenance is that the advice to lose slowly so as to learn how to maintain a weight loss, while perfectly rational and logical and the standard for most weight loss programs (including MFP), isn't borne out in the research. It doesn't seem to matter HOW one loses the weight, so much as what one does after one has lost the weight.

    The biggest indicators of who will maintain a lower weight (whether after a weight loss or if the person has been at a healthy weight for their adult life) seem to be: having a good internal locus of control, a good support system (that includes some other-directed and some self-directed motivation/contacts), and exercise (doesn't have to be Cross-Fit or working out at a gym; it can be a stroll around the neighborhood every day) and have nothing to do with HOW the weight was lost.

    I'm making these observations as someone who is trying to get down to a BMI of 24 and stay there long-term instead of ping-ponging between a BMI of 27 and 24 because, I will be honest, I like the way I looked when I'm thinner. Secondary to that is the fact that I am less likely to get diabetes and that, as my PCP has pointed out, every pound I lose is a pound I don't have to carry around with me on long hikes. (I am a minimalist hiker.) So the internal question of how to stay there once I get there is one of very relevant importance to me.

  • ryenday
    ryenday Posts: 1,540 Member
    edited January 2018
    One of the things I've noticed on studies about weight loss and maintenance is that the advice to lose slowly so as to learn how to maintain a weight loss, while perfectly rational and logical and the standard for most weight loss programs (including MFP), isn't borne out in the research. It doesn't seem to matter HOW one loses the weight, so much as what one does after one has lost the weight.

    The biggest indicators of who will maintain a lower weight (whether after a weight loss or if the person has been at a healthy weight for their adult life) seem to be: having a good internal locus of control, a good support system (that includes some other-directed and some self-directed motivation/contacts), and exercise (doesn't have to be Cross-Fit or working out at a gym; it can be a stroll around the neighborhood every day) and have nothing to do with HOW the weight was lost.

    I'm making these observations as someone who is trying to get down to a BMI of 24 and stay there long-term instead of ping-ponging between a BMI of 27 and 24 because, I will be honest, I like the way I looked when I'm thinner. Secondary to that is the fact that I am less likely to get diabetes and that, as my PCP has pointed out, every pound I lose is a pound I don't have to carry around with me on long hikes. (I am a minimalist hiker.) So the internal question of how to stay there once I get there is one of very relevant importance to me.

    I like how you think. I too have been peripherally aware of research that says quick or slow weight loss doesn’t matter to long term success (even one which says quicker is MORE likely to result in long term success). But I don’t know if they are scientific and peer reviewed enough (for the MFP crowd) and frankly have not cared enough to track down the references. I’m not actually aware of anything other than forum chatter advice that says take it slowly (in the context of sustained weight loss). Again, that particular issue wasn’t relevant to me (I had made my decision and it was working well for me) so I never looked into it. But I am skeptical of the claims that the slower the more likely the weight will stay off.
  • try2again
    try2again Posts: 3,562 Member
    edited January 2018
    I am always willing to learn. Found this, which again probably involves too many variables to be truly scientific, but that seems to bear out what some of you are saying:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3780395/

    I also found this in an abstract (but wasn't willing to pay to read the actual study):

    "According to our review, successful weight maintenance is associated with more initial weight loss, reaching a self-determined goal weight, having a physically active lifestyle, a regular meal rhythm including breakfast and healthier eating, control of over-eating and self-monitoring of behaviours. Weight maintenance is further associated with an internal motivation to lose weight, social support, better coping strategies and ability to handle life stress, self-efficacy, autonomy, assuming responsibility in life, and overall more psychological strength and stability. Factors that may pose a risk for weight regain include a history of weight cycling, disinhibited eating, binge eating, more hunger, eating in response to negative emotions and stress, and more passive reactions to problems."

    Honestly, I lack many, if not most, of the positive qualities associated with maintenance, but all-in-all, I still don't seem to be doing too bad. ;)
  • cmriverside
    cmriverside Posts: 34,458 Member
    I lost the first 40 pounds (from 220-180) at 1200 calories.

    Then I bonked and got more reasonable for the remainder. I think it's common and not that difficult to go really low-cal if you have a lot of weight to lose. As I got closer to a healthy BMI, it just wasn't possible to cut calories so low and still have any energy or keep my hair. That's my N=1 results. I went up to 1600 (Net) for the remainder of my weight loss.
  • cmriverside
    cmriverside Posts: 34,458 Member
    1200-ish. When I could stick to it.
  • lorrpb
    lorrpb Posts: 11,463 Member
    edited January 2018
    try2again wrote: »
    I am always willing to learn. Found this, which again probably involves too many variables to be truly scientific, but that seems to bear out what some of you are saying:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3780395/

    I also found this in an abstract (but wasn't willing to pay to read the actual study):

    "According to our review, successful weight maintenance is associated with more initial weight loss, reaching a self-determined goal weight, having a physically active lifestyle, a regular meal rhythm including breakfast and healthier eating, control of over-eating and self-monitoring of behaviours. Weight maintenance is further associated with an internal motivation to lose weight, social support, better coping strategies and ability to handle life stress, self-efficacy, autonomy, assuming responsibility in life, and overall more psychological strength and stability. Factors that may pose a risk for weight regain include a history of weight cycling, disinhibited eating, binge eating, more hunger, eating in response to negative emotions and stress, and more passive reactions to problems."

    Honestly, I lack many, if not most, of the positive qualities associated with maintenance, but all-in-all, I still don't seem to be doing too bad. ;)

    This is definitely a properly structured scientific study.

    Purpose
    This study examined whether gradual initial weight loss was associated with greater long-term weight reduction than rapid initial loss.

    Methods
    Groups were drawn from participants in the TOURS trial, which included a sample of middle-aged (mean =59.3 years) obese women (mean BMI =36.8) who received a 6-month lifestyle intervention followed by a 1-year extended care program. Participants were encouraged to reduce caloric intake to achieve weight losses of 0.45 kg/ week. Groups were categorized as “FAST” (≥0.68 kg/week, n=69), “MODERATE” (≥0.23 and <0.68 kg/week, n= 104), and “SLOW” (<0.23 kg/week, n=89) based on rate of weight loss during first month of treatment.
  • Need2Exerc1se
    Need2Exerc1se Posts: 13,575 Member
    try2again wrote: »
    try2again wrote: »
    ryenday wrote: »
    try2again wrote: »
    ryenday wrote: »

    I don’t think it is the diet mindset, that makes this time different for me, it is the post diet mindset that is a radical change.

    This is why so often on MFP we encourage new ones not to make drastic changes in their diet or lifestyle (eliminating foods or food groups, going very low cal, shakes, etc) for the weight loss phase that they don't expect or want to continue for the rest of their lives. Ideally, the weight loss phase should be for learning & practicing the skills we will need to maintain a healthy weight for the rest of our lives, but that doesn't happen if we deliberately choose methods we don't intend to use indefinitely. And I agree... I'm not sure I ever heard the word "maintenance" before MFP either!

    Yeah, that is the MFP way, but I very much disagree with it as the best way for all possible scenarios. Drastic diet as much as wasn’t unhealthy to get to the maintenance phase as quick as possible was the only way for me. But my maintenance is only barely above the 1200 “minimum” being short and old. So the MFP way would have taken me almost three years to get to a normal weight (40-50 lb loss)

    I believe above you referred to your weight loss phase as "torture". I find that really sad. It's taken me about 8 years to take off about 65 lbs (in smaller chunks at a modest calorie deficit) and I still have about 40 to go. I have enough struggles in life without torturing myself, and I've gotten a lot of maintenance practice in as well. I know not everyone wants to wait that long, and that's fine too, but hopefully there's a happy medium to be had there (emphasis on the *happy* part). :)

    This just seems a perfect example of one way not being the best for everyone. You prefer a slow method, someone else prefers a fast method. Neither is right or wrong, they are simply different. The fact that her method works for her but makes you sad is somewhat odd but really neither here nor there.

    I think being sad is a pretty natural response to a person "torturing" themself. But at any rate, I acknowledged that people are different and some prefer a faster route.

    But there's a study I'd like to see... how long-term success rates compare between people who have taken a drastic approach vs those who took a more moderate approach. I'm not trying to be snarky or imply anything... I just think it would be genuinely interesting.

    I agree that would be interesting. My guess, and that's all it is, is that the results would poor for both groups.
  • I've gained and lost weight many times gradually getting higher. The reason I let it go so far is because the only way I knew how to lose weight was to starve myself which is very stressful. And recently in the past few years, I've had boat loads of stress, and couldn't tolerate even the thought of adding more. Now that I'm not stressed by losing weight, I hope I can keep this way up in maintenance as well, and I see no reason why not.
  • KellyLekey
    KellyLekey Posts: 19 Member
    I've lost and maintained a loss of about 40% of my body weight for 5 years (right at 100 pounds). Whatever your method it boils down to having the discipline to identify what works for your lifestyle, nutritional needs and personal satisfaction then sticking to that.

    Discipline.
  • adarba
    adarba Posts: 22 Member
    I have lost 100 pounds 6 years ago. I kept it up for a while, then I hurt my knee and my workout routine suffered. I ran 5 miles a day for at least 4 days a week. Soon enough I started putting on weight. 20 pounds in less than two years. So here I am trying to get rid of those twenty pounds and maintain my original weight of 150 pounds (I'm 5'7). I know if I don't get a grip on it I'll be back to 250 in a heartbeat.
  • psychod787
    psychod787 Posts: 4,099 Member
    adarba wrote: »
    I have lost 100 pounds 6 years ago. I kept it up for a while, then I hurt my knee and my workout routine suffered. I ran 5 miles a day for at least 4 days a week. Soon enough I started putting on weight. 20 pounds in less than two years. So here I am trying to get rid of those twenty pounds and maintain my original weight of 150 pounds (I'm 5'7). I know if I don't get a grip on it I'll be back to 250 in a heartbeat.

    I only run of something is chasing me, and it better be bigger and meaner than me. I just enjoy walking. Will burn as many calories, just take a bit longer.
  • LivingtheLeanDream
    LivingtheLeanDream Posts: 13,342 Member
    nxd10 wrote: »
    The national weight loss study says 65% regain. That means 35% don't. That is a sample of people who lost more than 30 pounds and kept it off a year before they can even get into it (I'm part of that study.) Before I started this (5 years ago), I read all the tips on how to stay in that 35% and followed them. I've done pretty well. I've regained 5 pounds and am still 33 pounds less than when I started. And I know what's wrong - it's wicked cold and I'm not exercising. I eat very very well, although my calories are low. My only regret is not doing this 10 years earlier when I first let the weight creep up. I just turned 59 and am the same weight I was at 23. (At my lowest it was 21, but hey.)

    Thanks for the positive post :smile: I'm happy to say I'm in the 35% camp, will have been at maintenance for 5 years this summer.
  • BeccaLoves2lift
    BeccaLoves2lift Posts: 375 Member
    I got to my goal weight last July and I've been maintaining. I know it's not long term but I've made this a lifestyle and habit that I plan to keep up. The thing is, it's almost like when I was losing the weight... I still log all of my food, I use a weight tending app to make sure I'm not gaining, and I still consistently exercise. But to me this isn't really work anymore it's just a way of life and I'm perfectly happy with it. With all of that being said I'm now working on losing 5 more pounds and then I'll go back into maintenance.
  • Need2Exerc1se
    Need2Exerc1se Posts: 13,575 Member
    nxd10 wrote: »
    The national weight loss study says 65% regain. That means 35% don't. That is a sample of people who lost more than 30 pounds and kept it off a year before they can even get into it (I'm part of that study.) Before I started this (5 years ago), I read all the tips on how to stay in that 35% and followed them. I've done pretty well. I've regained 5 pounds and am still 33 pounds less than when I started.

    So, is the statistic that 35% keep it off for a year, or only that one has to keep it off for a year to get in the registry? And if it's not a year, then for what period of time do 35% keep it off? One year isn't very long.
  • Westschmeis
    Westschmeis Posts: 350 Member
    As Lawerence of Arabia said about surviving in the desert, "Nothing is written."

    It is up to each individual to change her/his lifestyle, one day at a time.
  • NorthCascades
    NorthCascades Posts: 10,968 Member
    nxd10 wrote: »
    The national weight loss study says 65% regain. That means 35% don't. That is a sample of people who lost more than 30 pounds and kept it off a year before they can even get into it (I'm part of that study.) Before I started this (5 years ago), I read all the tips on how to stay in that 35% and followed them. I've done pretty well. I've regained 5 pounds and am still 33 pounds less than when I started. And I know what's wrong - it's wicked cold and I'm not exercising. I eat very very well, although my calories are low. My only regret is not doing this 10 years earlier when I first let the weight creep up. I just turned 59 and am the same weight I was at 23. (At my lowest it was 21, but hey.)

    I've been gaining some of my weight back lately, but I've been lifting heavier and heavier things three times a week, so I'm happy with this.
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