Study: Probability of Obese People Reaching ‘Normal’ Weight Less Than 1%

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Replies

  • MoiAussi93
    MoiAussi93 Posts: 1,947 Member
    Not surprising. If you look at statistics, most people...even those who weren't obese to begin with...don't maintain weight loss over the long term even if they do successfully lose the weight. This is true regardless of if they lost the weight slowly or quickly, eating everything in moderation or eliminating certain foods, eating high carb or low carb, etc.

    The point is it takes a real change in lifestyle to do something long term. That is difficult, but it can be done. You just really need to focus on forming and reinforcing good habits and must be committed for life...not looking for a short term fix. If you are looking for a lot of short cuts, and most people are, you are not doing yourself any favors.
  • KateSimpson17
    KateSimpson17 Posts: 282 Member
    Orphia wrote: »
    Kotuliak wrote: »
    WASHINGTON — Programs like Weight Watchers and Jenny Craig are designed to help overweight and obese people shed extra pounds with the help of a support system — but a new study published in the American Journal of Public Health suggests that most obese people who don’t get some kind of weight loss surgery will never achieve a “normal” weight.
    The Centers for Disease Control classify a BMI of between 25 and 29.9 as “overweight,” anything above that as obese.
    Data for 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women from the United Kingdom were analyzed over the course of nine years, and researchers found that the annual probability of reaching a normal weight was just 1 in 210 for obese men and 1 in 124 for obese women (obese = 30.0–34.9 BMI).
    For those with morbid obesity (BMI = 40.0–44.9), those odds decreased to 1 in 1,290 for men and 1 in 677 for women.
    And, at least 50 percent of patients who managed to achieve a 5 percent weight loss were shown to have regained the weight within two years.
    “Our findings indicate that current nonsurgical obesity treatment strategies are failing to achieve sustained weight loss for the majority of obese patients,” the study says.
    “…even when treatment is accessed, evidence suggests behavioral weight loss interventions focusing on caloric restriction and increased physical activity are unlikely to yield clinically significant reductions in body weight.”

    http://www.weightymatters.ca/2015/07/new-obesity-study-from-annals-of.html

    "If I looked at 279,000 men and women for a decade and studied whether or not they qualified for the Boston Marathon, but I didn't actually look to see if they were runners, and if they were runners I didn't bother exploring what their training plans and distances were like, but instead simply looked at how many people from that 279,000 qualified for Boston, I'm guessing I'd be left with an incredibly small number.

    "And yet, that's pretty much exactly what the latest depressing weight loss study did. They followed 279,000 men and women for ten years to see what was the probability of those with obesity losing back down to "normal" weight (a BMI less than 25). They didn't exclude people who weren't trying to lose weight or who might not have wanted to lose weight. They also didn't pay any attention to the means with which those who did lose weight only to regain it lost it in the first place."

    Dumb study is dumb.

    holla at this.

    Seriously. People purposely make studies so that will prove their hypothesis instead of making their theory fit actual data. Innocent until proven guilty, people.
  • KateSimpson17
    KateSimpson17 Posts: 282 Member
    vinerie wrote: »
    People around here like to dismiss science. But this study echoes the results of others like it. It's scary and disheartening. But some people do lose weight. We do know that support is one of the most important factors for success, which makes sites like this so important.
    It's not scary and disheartening. It's stupidity on stilts.

    It would be like trying to show the odds of graduating college by looking at the entire population without regard for whether the people were even attending college.

    That someone who isn't even trying to lose weight fails to lose weight tells nothing -- literally nothing -- about the probability of success of someone who is.

    whoop, there it is.
  • purpleposies
    purpleposies Posts: 90 Member
    rabbitjb wrote: »
    Orphia wrote: »
    Kotuliak wrote: »
    WASHINGTON — Programs like Weight Watchers and Jenny Craig are designed to help overweight and obese people shed extra pounds with the help of a support system — but a new study published in the American Journal of Public Health suggests that most obese people who don’t get some kind of weight loss surgery will never achieve a “normal” weight.
    The Centers for Disease Control classify a BMI of between 25 and 29.9 as “overweight,” anything above that as obese.
    Data for 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women from the United Kingdom were analyzed over the course of nine years, and researchers found that the annual probability of reaching a normal weight was just 1 in 210 for obese men and 1 in 124 for obese women (obese = 30.0–34.9 BMI).
    For those with morbid obesity (BMI = 40.0–44.9), those odds decreased to 1 in 1,290 for men and 1 in 677 for women.
    And, at least 50 percent of patients who managed to achieve a 5 percent weight loss were shown to have regained the weight within two years.
    “Our findings indicate that current nonsurgical obesity treatment strategies are failing to achieve sustained weight loss for the majority of obese patients,” the study says.
    “…even when treatment is accessed, evidence suggests behavioral weight loss interventions focusing on caloric restriction and increased physical activity are unlikely to yield clinically significant reductions in body weight.”

    http://www.weightymatters.ca/2015/07/new-obesity-study-from-annals-of.html

    "If I looked at 279,000 men and women for a decade and studied whether or not they qualified for the Boston Marathon, but I didn't actually look to see if they were runners, and if they were runners I didn't bother exploring what their training plans and distances were like, but instead simply looked at how many people from that 279,000 qualified for Boston, I'm guessing I'd be left with an incredibly small number.

    "And yet, that's pretty much exactly what the latest depressing weight loss study did. They followed 279,000 men and women for ten years to see what was the probability of those with obesity losing back down to "normal" weight (a BMI less than 25). They didn't exclude people who weren't trying to lose weight or who might not have wanted to lose weight. They also didn't pay any attention to the means with which those who did lose weight only to regain it lost it in the first place."

    Dumb study is dumb.

    Have I told you lately that I love you
    Have I told you there's noone above you

    Dee dah dee

    This x 1,000,000.
  • daniwilford
    daniwilford Posts: 1,030 Member
    lemurcat12 wrote: »
    I was panicked by a study published in Time magazine in 1982. I predicted my future on other people's past statistics.

    Out of curiosity, the "you have a better chance of getting hit by lightening than being married over 35, if a woman" one?

    Good guess you are right. I wanted to be a mother (not a single mother) more than anything in the world. I put my education aside and concentrated on my MRS.
  • daniwilford
    daniwilford Posts: 1,030 Member
    Kalikel wrote: »
    Well, it sucks for those who remain obese, but it doesn't mean I had to. I'll be in the normal range and I'll be there very soon. One stubborn pound away. That pound is holding on for dear life and doesn't want to leave, but it will. Hasta la vista, little pound and hasta la vista Overweight.

    Study can kiss my asp.

    Great attitude. Beat the odds and come back to tell us how well you did it.
  • barbecuesauce
    barbecuesauce Posts: 1,779 Member
    lemurcat12 wrote: »
    I was panicked by a study published in Time magazine in 1982. I predicted my future on other people's past statistics.

    Out of curiosity, the "you have a better chance of getting hit by lightening than being married over 35, if a woman" one?

    Good guess you are right. I wanted to be a mother (not a single mother) more than anything in the world. I put my education aside and concentrated on my MRS.

    To be fair, some of us married instead of finishing college WITHOUT the benefit of study panic. I would have preferred the lightning tbh.

    (Got that degree in the end, now working on maintaining my 21+ BMI)
  • Mr_Knight
    Mr_Knight Posts: 9,533 Member
    edited July 2015
    Mr_Knight wrote: »
    Orphia wrote: »
    Kotuliak wrote: »
    WASHINGTON — Programs like Weight Watchers and Jenny Craig are designed to help overweight and obese people shed extra pounds with the help of a support system — but a new study published in the American Journal of Public Health suggests that most obese people who don’t get some kind of weight loss surgery will never achieve a “normal” weight.
    The Centers for Disease Control classify a BMI of between 25 and 29.9 as “overweight,” anything above that as obese.
    Data for 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women from the United Kingdom were analyzed over the course of nine years, and researchers found that the annual probability of reaching a normal weight was just 1 in 210 for obese men and 1 in 124 for obese women (obese = 30.0–34.9 BMI).
    For those with morbid obesity (BMI = 40.0–44.9), those odds decreased to 1 in 1,290 for men and 1 in 677 for women.
    And, at least 50 percent of patients who managed to achieve a 5 percent weight loss were shown to have regained the weight within two years.
    “Our findings indicate that current nonsurgical obesity treatment strategies are failing to achieve sustained weight loss for the majority of obese patients,” the study says.
    “…even when treatment is accessed, evidence suggests behavioral weight loss interventions focusing on caloric restriction and increased physical activity are unlikely to yield clinically significant reductions in body weight.”

    http://www.weightymatters.ca/2015/07/new-obesity-study-from-annals-of.html

    "If I looked at 279,000 men and women for a decade and studied whether or not they qualified for the Boston Marathon, but I didn't actually look to see if they were runners, and if they were runners I didn't bother exploring what their training plans and distances were like, but instead simply looked at how many people from that 279,000 qualified for Boston, I'm guessing I'd be left with an incredibly small number.

    "And yet, that's pretty much exactly what the latest depressing weight loss study did. They followed 279,000 men and women for ten years to see what was the probability of those with obesity losing back down to "normal" weight (a BMI less than 25). They didn't exclude people who weren't trying to lose weight or who might not have wanted to lose weight. They also didn't pay any attention to the means with which those who did lose weight only to regain it lost it in the first place."

    There is no way to measure "might not have wanted to". And there are already plenty of studies that look at the means - they all find the same thing - all the "means" suck, because success rates are very low no matter how the demographic pie is sliced.

    I don't take the headline number too seriously, but really it's not that far off of all the other studies looking at this. Does it really matter if the failure number is reported as 90% or 99%? Is there really a huge difference between 99% of everybody failing and 90% of people trying, failing?

    Not really.

    The harsh truth is that once you let yourself get fat, by far the most likely outcome, NO MATTER WHAT YOU TRY AND DO, is that you will stay fat. I don't like it, and yeah, it makes me an outlier, but I'm not going to make a mockery of logic by ignoring the mountain of evidence.

    The difference between 99% failing and 90% failing is ten times more people succeeding, that's a pretty big difference.

    10x of a very small number is still a small number.

    It's the change in the big number that matters....