Calorie Counter

You are currently viewing the message boards in:

In 5 weeks you will weigh...

TheMrWobblyTheMrWobbly Posts: 974Member Member Posts: 974Member Member
Don't you just love the message at the bottom of the 'Food Diary' that says "If you continue like this in 5 weeks you will weigh xxx".

The trouble is I just checked and 5 weeks ago mine said 236.4lbs. An impressive 18.4lbs from the weight I was at that time. Currently I weigh in around 247 lbs which I don't think is a bad loss.

Has anyone actually achieved the project weight loss MFP give??
«1

Replies

  • ceiswynceiswyn Posts: 1,885Member Member Posts: 1,885Member Member
    And did you continue exactly as you did on that one day five weeks ago? Exactly the same deficit every day?
  • TheMrWobblyTheMrWobbly Posts: 974Member Member Posts: 974Member Member
    No I do not eat exactly the same food everyday, however my average per day since that 'prediction' is within 30 calories of that particular day so barely any difference.

    I am just interested to see if people are achieving their 'forecast'.
  • Panini911Panini911 Posts: 2,325Member Member Posts: 2,325Member Member
    I never close my diary (other than to test once to see what it did) so don't see it so no idea if i achieved what it said. i'll say very likely no.
  • lemurcat2lemurcat2 Posts: 2,941Member Member Posts: 2,941Member Member
    I mostly did when I was first logging and was very consistent about hitting my goal (and had lots to lose). But then I went to a TDEE method and stopped closing, so who knows. When I first went to TDEE and stopped adding exercise it projected me to gain slightly and even though it's irrelevant I found it annoying, which is one reason I stopped closing.

    The diary projection is based on its calculation of your TDEE (including any exercise you add in) minus calories consumed, and is nothing but math. If it's off it's that your TDEE is varying daily (extremely common unless you always eat the same percentage of exercise cals and pretty much always have the same activity levels, as well as eating the same). If it is consistently lower than predicted (if you ask for 1.5 lb/week and always hit goals it will project you to lose 7.5 lb in 5 weeks), then your estimated numbers might be slightly off. If it's projecting something like 18.4 lb in 5 weeks, it should be a day in which you were way under goal, as 2 lb/week would be only 10 lb in 5 weeks. So in this case if the numbers are slightly off so you are really losing not quite as aggressively, that's likely a good thing.
  • CipherZeroCipherZero Posts: 1,343Member Member Posts: 1,343Member Member
    I totally ignore the MFP predictions. The scale determines the results.
  • vim_n_vigorvim_n_vigor Posts: 4,193Member Member Posts: 4,193Member Member
    for a while I tracked the five week weight loss and then averaged it together by week, and when averaged, it really hasn't been too far off. But if I just look at it as a day to day thing, it doesn't come close.
  • geauxtigerlilygeauxtigerlily Posts: 62Member Member Posts: 62Member Member
    When you went back to look, was that number already there? Or did you have to click "complete this entry" again? I think I've looked at this before, and if you have to recalculate, IIRC MFP uses your current weight and that day's calorie deficit, even if you're looking at food diary data from 5 weeks ago. (Just went back to check it on an old date, and yep, the "5 weeks from today" calculation is run off of your current weight, not the weight at the time of the diary entry, so could be that?)
    edited July 31
  • TheMrWobblyTheMrWobbly Posts: 974Member Member Posts: 974Member Member
    Great answers guys, thank you very much!
  • LyndaBSSLyndaBSS Posts: 3,361Member, Premium Member Posts: 3,361Member, Premium Member
    No I do not eat exactly the same food everyday, however my average per day since that 'prediction' is within 30 calories of that particular day so barely any difference.

    I am just interested to see if people are achieving their 'forecast'.

    I have found that the projection number varies wildly if I'm even 10 calories off. Almost seems to be based on the exact foods rather than the total calories. Doesn't matter. I treat it as a joke to start my day off. 😀
    edited July 31
  • JAMeadEsqJAMeadEsq Posts: 3Member, Premium Member Posts: 3Member, Premium Member
    I find my predictions vary WILDLY day-to-day. For example, on Saturday I ran 18 miles and burned 4991 calories. I ate 3500 calories, for nearly a 1500 calorie deficit. But my prediction said I would gain 10 pounds if I continued at that rate. It must be that the prediction is based on calories consumed and not overall daily deficit, maybe?
  • mph323mph323 Posts: 3,309Member Member Posts: 3,309Member Member
    I think CO has a lot to do with the prediction as well. Not only do you have to hit the same calorie total consistently but you have to also hit the same number of calories out, which is a lot harder to figure when you consider NEAT as well as intentional exercise. I never close mine.
  • heybalesheybales Posts: 16,883Member Member Posts: 16,883Member Member
    No I do not eat exactly the same food everyday, however my average per day since that 'prediction' is within 30 calories of that particular day so barely any difference.

    I am just interested to see if people are achieving their 'forecast'.

    Well - you would also have to have burned exactly the amount of calories during the day as expected, to have accomplished the deficit that MFP thinks it's seeing.

    That's the impossible side, along with the fact that even weighed products to the nutrition label can be allowed off by upwards of 10% easily according to label info.

    I never finalized days to notice.

    I had a month of training along with good logging where the predicted loss was within 3% of actual.
    I added all workouts manually from better calorie burn sources, and activity tracker handled the daily stuff.
  • cwolfman13cwolfman13 Posts: 36,588Member Member Posts: 36,588Member Member
    That prediction is an oversimplified formula that assumes everyday will in fact be exactly the same and that weight loss is linear. I ignored it completely.
  • heybalesheybales Posts: 16,883Member Member Posts: 16,883Member Member
    JAMeadEsq wrote: »
    I find my predictions vary WILDLY day-to-day. For example, on Saturday I ran 18 miles and burned 4991 calories. I ate 3500 calories, for nearly a 1500 calorie deficit. But my prediction said I would gain 10 pounds if I continued at that rate. It must be that the prediction is based on calories consumed and not overall daily deficit, maybe?

    No, deficit.

    Estimated burn + any workouts logged - eaten = deficit x 35 / 3500 = lbs lost off current weight.
    edited July 31
  • AnnPT77AnnPT77 Posts: 11,577Member Member Posts: 11,577Member Member
    MFP also appears to be using its default assumptions about one's calorie burn to produce the "in 5 weeks" estimate.

    Many of us tell people to take MFP's calorie goal as a starting point, then adjust after 4-6 weeks of logging experience. I initially lost much faster than MFP estimated based on my (accurate) profile settings, so adjusted my calorie goal upward to lose at a more sensibly moderate rate. I have 4 years of logging experience, so quite a lot of confidence in my own estimates at this point.

    Every time I close my diary, on a day that's a slight deficit for me (I calorie bank in maintenance), MFP tells me I'll have gained weight in 5 weeks. If I eat/move that way every day, I won't gain; I'll lose. MFP's using its base assumptions about average people of my characteristics to generate the message. For unknown reasons, I'm not average, but evidently somehow twitchier than average ( :lol: ), so the message is wrong.
  • noobootsnooboots Posts: 479Member Member Posts: 479Member Member
    I quite like the little prediction, it gives me hope!
  • phred_52phred_52 Posts: 195Member Member Posts: 195Member Member
    My last entry was July 17. I'm at 175 from 205...Mine said this:

    If every day were like today... You'd weigh 149.5 lbs in 5 weeks

    No way do I want to go as low as 149. At 5'8" and small boned, I'd be a skeleton, lol. Goal is for 160 again.
  • GrizzledSquirrelGrizzledSquirrel Posts: 39Member Member Posts: 39Member Member
    I hate that message. It only reminds me just how long I have to continue slogging away to keep within my pitifully small daily allocation of calories. I’d rather not see it. Would much rather get a huge firework display for simply hitting THAT DAY. I prefer focusing on the baby steps rather than the mountain top.
Sign In or Register to comment.