In 5 weeks you will weigh...

I mostly did when I was first logging and was very consistent about hitting my goal (and had lots to lose). But then I went to a TDEE method and stopped closing, so who knows. When I first went to TDEE and stopped adding exercise it projected me to gain slightly and even though it's irrelevant I found it annoying, which is one reason I stopped closing.

The diary projection is based on its calculation of your TDEE (including any exercise you add in) minus calories consumed, and is nothing but math. If it's off it's that your TDEE is varying daily (extremely common unless you always eat the same percentage of exercise cals and pretty much always have the same activity levels, as well as eating the same). If it is consistently lower than predicted (if you ask for 1.5 lb/week and always hit goals it will project you to lose 7.5 lb in 5 weeks), then your estimated numbers might be slightly off. If it's projecting something like 18.4 lb in 5 weeks, it should be a day in which you were way under goal, as 2 lb/week would be only 10 lb in 5 weeks. So in this case if the numbers are slightly off so you are really losing not quite as aggressively, that's likely a good thing.

for a while I tracked the five week weight loss and then averaged it together by week, and when averaged, it really hasn't been too far off. But if I just look at it as a day to day thing, it doesn't come close.

TheMrWobbly wrote: »

No I do not eat exactly the same food everyday, however my average per day since that 'prediction' is within 30 calories of that particular day so barely any difference.

I am just interested to see if people are achieving their 'forecast'.

I have found that the projection number varies wildly if I'm even 10 calories off. Almost seems to be based on the exact foods rather than the total calories. Doesn't matter. I treat it as a joke to start my day off. 😀

I think CO has a lot to do with the prediction as well. Not only do you have to hit the same calorie total consistently but you have to also hit the same number of calories out, which is a lot harder to figure when you consider NEAT as well as intentional exercise. I never close mine.

That prediction is an oversimplified formula that assumes everyday will in fact be exactly the same and that weight loss is linear. I ignored it completely.

MFP also appears to be using its default assumptions about one's calorie burn to produce the "in 5 weeks" estimate.

Many of us tell people to take MFP's calorie goal as a starting point, then adjust after 4-6 weeks of logging experience. I initially lost much faster than MFP estimated based on my (accurate) profile settings, so adjusted my calorie goal upward to lose at a more sensibly moderate rate. I have 4 years of logging experience, so quite a lot of confidence in my own estimates at this point.

Every time I close my diary, on a day that's a slight deficit for me (I calorie bank in maintenance), MFP tells me I'll have gained weight in 5 weeks. If I eat/move that way every day, I won't gain; I'll lose. MFP's using its base assumptions about average people of my characteristics to generate the message. For unknown reasons, I'm not average, but evidently somehow twitchier than average ( ), so the message is wrong.

I quite like the little prediction, it gives me hope!

I hate that message. It only reminds me just how long I have to continue slogging away to keep within my pitifully small daily allocation of calories. I’d rather not see it. Would much rather get a huge firework display for simply hitting THAT DAY. I prefer focusing on the baby steps rather than the mountain top.

When looked at as kind of a range or average (vs each individual day) and assuming I was eating at approximately the same deficit over the entire period (again-as a range or average vs each individual day), the prediction really isn’t all that far off.

Where it gets sketchy is that I don’t always maintain a deficit for 5 weeks, or the same deficit, and my weight fluctuates wildly (up as much as 8 pounds from one day to the next) so the calculation could be starting from a somewhat skewed spot (meaning I would be losing from a weight lower than the 8 pound water bump that mfp is using for its starting calculation).

But even with all that-it’s not so wildly off that it doesn’t serve as a check-point. Check point. Not gospel.

I just quit closing my diary a long time ago cause I didn’t like the red writing and the warning that I went over my calories when I was 4 or 5 calories over. Does it still do that?