Study: Probability of Obese People Reaching ‘Normal’ Weight Less Than 1%
Kotuliak
Posts: 259 Member
WASHINGTON — Programs like Weight Watchers and Jenny Craig are designed to help overweight and obese people shed extra pounds with the help of a support system — but a new study published in the American Journal of Public Health suggests that most obese people who don’t get some kind of weight loss surgery will never achieve a “normal” weight.
The Centers for Disease Control classify a BMI of between 25 and 29.9 as “overweight,” anything above that as obese.
Data for 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women from the United Kingdom were analyzed over the course of nine years, and researchers found that the annual probability of reaching a normal weight was just 1 in 210 for obese men and 1 in 124 for obese women (obese = 30.0–34.9 BMI).
For those with morbid obesity (BMI = 40.0–44.9), those odds decreased to 1 in 1,290 for men and 1 in 677 for women.
And, at least 50 percent of patients who managed to achieve a 5 percent weight loss were shown to have regained the weight within two years.
“Our findings indicate that current nonsurgical obesity treatment strategies are failing to achieve sustained weight loss for the majority of obese patients,” the study says.
“…even when treatment is accessed, evidence suggests behavioral weight loss interventions focusing on caloric restriction and increased physical activity are unlikely to yield clinically significant reductions in body weight.”
The Centers for Disease Control classify a BMI of between 25 and 29.9 as “overweight,” anything above that as obese.
Data for 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women from the United Kingdom were analyzed over the course of nine years, and researchers found that the annual probability of reaching a normal weight was just 1 in 210 for obese men and 1 in 124 for obese women (obese = 30.0–34.9 BMI).
For those with morbid obesity (BMI = 40.0–44.9), those odds decreased to 1 in 1,290 for men and 1 in 677 for women.
And, at least 50 percent of patients who managed to achieve a 5 percent weight loss were shown to have regained the weight within two years.
“Our findings indicate that current nonsurgical obesity treatment strategies are failing to achieve sustained weight loss for the majority of obese patients,” the study says.
“…even when treatment is accessed, evidence suggests behavioral weight loss interventions focusing on caloric restriction and increased physical activity are unlikely to yield clinically significant reductions in body weight.”
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Replies
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I AM ABNORMAL! FANTASTIC!
lol0 -
This is the study about people who weren't even necessarily dieting? So what.
If you want counter-examples, MFP is full of them.0 -
The probability of me going to whatever weight BMI states is desirable for me is probably 0 percent unless I get cancer, and thank god for it.
Alphas gonna alpha and I don't want to be a hipster who weighs 20 lbs more than my GF.0 -
lemurcat12 wrote: »This is the study about people who weren't even necessarily dieting? So what.
If you want counter-examples, MFP is full of them.
After three years and a lifestyle change, I have not gained the weight back.
(Boy, am I glad I didn't read that study beforehand.)0 -
BMI is a joke, BMI is a joke, BMI is a joke....
Sing it with me now.
I was 6" 265lbs in college and not obese....in fact to be within the "healthy" guidelines of BMI I would to have to lose ALL the body fat on my body and then lots of muscle, bone, tendons and blood.
BMI is nothing.
I could dunk a nerf ball with Trex arms, bench over 4 plates and had a pulse in the low 50s all while being able to put my foot to my ear.0 -
Well then, me and many many others on this site are exceptions I guess. Many people dont lose their excess weight I suppose, especially those of us who are or were morbidly obese. I dont believe for a second thats because caloric restriction doesnt work. It's because most people dont either do it correctly ( fad diets etc.) or because people give up and don't see it through. But this site is full of people who are living proof it does work if you stick with it.0
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If a special snowflake means not wearing size 28 skinny jeans, I am all for it.
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1) Posting this here is very insensitive. While most of the people commenting obviously believe they can overcome the odds do you know how many people are going to read this and feel even crappier about themselves than they already do?
2) this article talks specifically about DIETING not a lifestyle change, which we all know is a failed approach anyway.
3) To anyone who fits into the category of being discouraged by this: you are not a number. You are not a statistic. Just because 99% of people according to some study fail doesn't mean you will. You are a product of your own design, no one else can tell you that you can't succeed. Prove 'em wrong.
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If a special snowflake means not wearing size 28 skinny jeans, I am all for it.
Considering that at 26.7% BF I have not managed anything smaller than 36 I am fairly sure I'm not in danger <insert shark attack music>... or am I?
<stay tuned for the next special snowflake episode coming to you live in a few months>0 -
If a special snowflake means not wearing size 28 skinny jeans, I am all for it.
Considering that at 26.7% BF I have not managed anything smaller than 36 I am fairly sure I'm not in danger <insert shark attack music>... or am I?
<stay tuned for the next special snowflake episode coming to you live in a few months>
Cool story bro; we were all wondering....lol.
I think the lowest i've ever been in 38 inches; of course I was benching over 4 plates at the time, so the shoulder to waist ratio probably made me look decent. I know I was teh sexing 7's-9's and that's the key criteria I use.-5 -
As someone who is in the "morbidly obese" category on the BMI, with a starting BMI of 46.5ish, I would say that even being in the "overweight" category with a BMI of 26-27 is better than 46 even if it isn't in the "normal range". I honestly don't believe much in the BMI as it's a flawed system. Shout out to those that have gotten to their goal weight regardless of what they were told. I'm not letting any study slow down my weight loss.0
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The truth is the stats are probably pretty accurate. Even on MFP most people probably never reach their goal weight and if they do what % of those eventually gain it back? Realistically we aren't special snowflakes. It is ultimately up to each of us to beat the statistics. So you gotta ask yourself one question.... are you going to be a part of that 1% who succeeds?0
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I think it's ok to move the goalposts a bit, though. Overweight > obese - still reduces risk even if they never get to normal weight.0
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never mind of course it's that one0
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lel0
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I think it's ok to move the goalposts a bit, though. Overweight > obese - still reduces risk even if they never get to normal weight.
Not necessarily. It's like me telling you, okay, In school you no-longer need a 50% to pass your exam, you now only need 30%.
There are going to be a lot of problems, trust me.0 -
Yipee!! I beat the odds. Overweight all of my life until January 2014! BMI 39 down to 23.5! No weightloss surgery, just a cal deficit using 5:2 and a healthy mix of cardio and strength.0
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I think it's ok to move the goalposts a bit, though. Overweight > obese - still reduces risk even if they never get to normal weight.
Not necessarily. It's like me telling you, okay, In school you no-longer need a 50% to pass your exam, you now only need 30%.
There are going to be a lot of problems, trust me.
Actually, as best medical science can tell, being moderately over what BMI tells you to be and active doesn't really make you any more unhealthy than being really lean with the same activity levels...at least there aren't significant gaps at all.
Sorry bro.-4 -
BMI is a joke, BMI is a joke, BMI is a joke....
Sing it with me now.
I was 6" 265lbs in college and not obese....in fact to be within the "healthy" guidelines of BMI I would to have to lose ALL the body fat on my body and then lots of muscle, bone, tendons and blood.
BMI is nothing.
I could dunk a nerf ball with Trex arms, bench over 4 plates and had a pulse in the low 50s all while being able to put my foot to my ear.
It is not, it is not, it is not...
You are the exception, not the rule. Take 100, hell, a million people with your BMI and count how many of them are not fat.0 -
Also it's amazing how many people who believe they are outliers, approach the maximum BMI of their height/weight ratio and think actually it's not so absurd
It's a population measure. It's a decent enough guideline for those who are way beyond the limits to have in mind, do you as an individual have to fall within the healthy range or die? No, that would be absurd...but in terms of weight loss when nobody really knows what their body will be like until they get there it works as a goal.
My initial weight loss goal I set at a BMI of 25 to have something to aim for. Now in maintenance sit at around a BMI of 24, and focus on BF. I'm not at this weight because the measure tells me to be here but I'm here because this is how I like my body
Like any measure use it appropriately and it's worthwhile0 -
WASHINGTON — Programs like Weight Watchers and Jenny Craig are designed to help overweight and obese people shed extra pounds with the help of a support system — but a new study published in the American Journal of Public Health suggests that most obese people who don’t get some kind of weight loss surgery will never achieve a “normal” weight.
The Centers for Disease Control classify a BMI of between 25 and 29.9 as “overweight,” anything above that as obese.
Data for 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women from the United Kingdom were analyzed over the course of nine years, and researchers found that the annual probability of reaching a normal weight was just 1 in 210 for obese men and 1 in 124 for obese women (obese = 30.0–34.9 BMI).
For those with morbid obesity (BMI = 40.0–44.9), those odds decreased to 1 in 1,290 for men and 1 in 677 for women.
And, at least 50 percent of patients who managed to achieve a 5 percent weight loss were shown to have regained the weight within two years.
“Our findings indicate that current nonsurgical obesity treatment strategies are failing to achieve sustained weight loss for the majority of obese patients,” the study says.
“…even when treatment is accessed, evidence suggests behavioral weight loss interventions focusing on caloric restriction and increased physical activity are unlikely to yield clinically significant reductions in body weight.”
http://www.weightymatters.ca/2015/07/new-obesity-study-from-annals-of.html
"If I looked at 279,000 men and women for a decade and studied whether or not they qualified for the Boston Marathon, but I didn't actually look to see if they were runners, and if they were runners I didn't bother exploring what their training plans and distances were like, but instead simply looked at how many people from that 279,000 qualified for Boston, I'm guessing I'd be left with an incredibly small number.
"And yet, that's pretty much exactly what the latest depressing weight loss study did. They followed 279,000 men and women for ten years to see what was the probability of those with obesity losing back down to "normal" weight (a BMI less than 25). They didn't exclude people who weren't trying to lose weight or who might not have wanted to lose weight. They also didn't pay any attention to the means with which those who did lose weight only to regain it lost it in the first place."
Dumb study is dumb.0 -
WASHINGTON — Programs like Weight Watchers and Jenny Craig are designed to help overweight and obese people shed extra pounds with the help of a support system — but a new study published in the American Journal of Public Health suggests that most obese people who don’t get some kind of weight loss surgery will never achieve a “normal” weight.
The Centers for Disease Control classify a BMI of between 25 and 29.9 as “overweight,” anything above that as obese.
Data for 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women from the United Kingdom were analyzed over the course of nine years, and researchers found that the annual probability of reaching a normal weight was just 1 in 210 for obese men and 1 in 124 for obese women (obese = 30.0–34.9 BMI).
For those with morbid obesity (BMI = 40.0–44.9), those odds decreased to 1 in 1,290 for men and 1 in 677 for women.
And, at least 50 percent of patients who managed to achieve a 5 percent weight loss were shown to have regained the weight within two years.
“Our findings indicate that current nonsurgical obesity treatment strategies are failing to achieve sustained weight loss for the majority of obese patients,” the study says.
“…even when treatment is accessed, evidence suggests behavioral weight loss interventions focusing on caloric restriction and increased physical activity are unlikely to yield clinically significant reductions in body weight.”
http://www.weightymatters.ca/2015/07/new-obesity-study-from-annals-of.html
"If I looked at 279,000 men and women for a decade and studied whether or not they qualified for the Boston Marathon, but I didn't actually look to see if they were runners, and if they were runners I didn't bother exploring what their training plans and distances were like, but instead simply looked at how many people from that 279,000 qualified for Boston, I'm guessing I'd be left with an incredibly small number.
"And yet, that's pretty much exactly what the latest depressing weight loss study did. They followed 279,000 men and women for ten years to see what was the probability of those with obesity losing back down to "normal" weight (a BMI less than 25). They didn't exclude people who weren't trying to lose weight or who might not have wanted to lose weight. They also didn't pay any attention to the means with which those who did lose weight only to regain it lost it in the first place."
Dumb study is dumb.
Have I told you lately that I love you
Have I told you there's noone above you
Dee dah dee0 -
WASHINGTON — Programs like Weight Watchers and Jenny Craig are designed to help overweight and obese people shed extra pounds with the help of a support system — but a new study published in the American Journal of Public Health suggests that most obese people who don’t get some kind of weight loss surgery will never achieve a “normal” weight.
The Centers for Disease Control classify a BMI of between 25 and 29.9 as “overweight,” anything above that as obese.
Data for 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women from the United Kingdom were analyzed over the course of nine years, and researchers found that the annual probability of reaching a normal weight was just 1 in 210 for obese men and 1 in 124 for obese women (obese = 30.0–34.9 BMI).
For those with morbid obesity (BMI = 40.0–44.9), those odds decreased to 1 in 1,290 for men and 1 in 677 for women.
And, at least 50 percent of patients who managed to achieve a 5 percent weight loss were shown to have regained the weight within two years.
“Our findings indicate that current nonsurgical obesity treatment strategies are failing to achieve sustained weight loss for the majority of obese patients,” the study says.
“…even when treatment is accessed, evidence suggests behavioral weight loss interventions focusing on caloric restriction and increased physical activity are unlikely to yield clinically significant reductions in body weight.”
http://www.weightymatters.ca/2015/07/new-obesity-study-from-annals-of.html
"If I looked at 279,000 men and women for a decade and studied whether or not they qualified for the Boston Marathon, but I didn't actually look to see if they were runners, and if they were runners I didn't bother exploring what their training plans and distances were like, but instead simply looked at how many people from that 279,000 qualified for Boston, I'm guessing I'd be left with an incredibly small number.
"And yet, that's pretty much exactly what the latest depressing weight loss study did. They followed 279,000 men and women for ten years to see what was the probability of those with obesity losing back down to "normal" weight (a BMI less than 25). They didn't exclude people who weren't trying to lose weight or who might not have wanted to lose weight. They also didn't pay any attention to the means with which those who did lose weight only to regain it lost it in the first place."
Dumb study is dumb.
Have I told you lately that I love you
Have I told you there's noone above you
Dee dah dee
@rabbitjb Back at ya with big hugs!0 -
pincushion14 wrote: »I AM ABNORMAL! FANTASTIC!
lol
If YOU'RE a special snowflake and I'M a special snowflake, then who's flying the plane???
I hate studies like this because by the time the media gets done with it, it's fat logical garbage.0 -
Even if is where true, people still buy lottery tickets. If they believe they will win the lottery, they should believe they can lose weight.0
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Woo-hoo I'm a 1%'er. It's possible with dedication. The only definite is you will never change if you don't try.0
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I'll never be a "normal" weight? May as well start eating back those 158# pronto!
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http://www.weightymatters.ca/2015/07/new-obesity-study-from-annals-of.html
"If I looked at 279,000 men and women for a decade and studied whether or not they qualified for the Boston Marathon, but I didn't actually look to see if they were runners, and if they were runners I didn't bother exploring what their training plans and distances were like, but instead simply looked at how many people from that 279,000 qualified for Boston, I'm guessing I'd be left with an incredibly small number.
"And yet, that's pretty much exactly what the latest depressing weight loss study did. They followed 279,000 men and women for ten years to see what was the probability of those with obesity losing back down to "normal" weight (a BMI less than 25). They didn't exclude people who weren't trying to lose weight or who might not have wanted to lose weight. They also didn't pay any attention to the means with which those who did lose weight only to regain it lost it in the first place."
Dumb study is dumb.
That whole article is worth reading and a sensible look at the matter.
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