May 2017 Running Challenge

Options
1…1112141617…91

Replies

  • JessicaMcB
    JessicaMcB Posts: 1,503 Member
    Options
    kristinegift wrote: »
    Stoshew71 wrote: »

    RE: Nice pretty trail shoes.
    They are trail shoes. They will stay pretty for 2 seconds. Then they will get muddy. Buy plain unattractive trail shoes that will protect your feet. Get pretty road shoes. :wink:

    @Stoshew71 This is a good point. But you can clean off trail shoes so they're almost as pretty as they were when they started! You can still tell my Sketchers were gorgeous to start even though they've been caked in mud. :D (Also these pretty colors were the only ones on sale in my size; I'd have happily bought boring colors also!)

    I was going to say the same, I always wash my trail shoes! My road shoes not as often but I don't love them as much ;)
  • KatieJane83
    KatieJane83 Posts: 2,002 Member
    edited May 2017
    Options
    So, I do understand that it's an estimate, but does anyone have any experience with how accurately the Daniels VDOT Running Calculator can predict a longer race finishing time from a short race finishing time? My most recent race was a 5k. I haven't had a race longer than that since the fall. My ultimate, dream (for now) goal for my half is a sub-2:00:00, and according to Daniel's VDOT running calculator, based on my 25:29 5k time, it predicts a 1:57 half marathon time. But, I just have trouble believing it can accurately scale up from such a short distance to a much longer distance. Any personal anecdotes?
  • MNLittleFinn
    MNLittleFinn Posts: 4,271 Member
    Options
    KatieJane83 wrote: »
    So, I do understand that it's an estimate, but does anyone have any experience with how accurately the Daniels VDOT Running Calculator can predict a longer race finishing time from a short race finishing time? My most recent race was a 5k. I haven't had a race longer than that since the fall. My ultimate, dream (for now) goal for my half is a sub-2:00:00, and according to Daniel's VDOT running calculator, based on my 25:29 5k time, it predicts a 1:57 half marathon time. But, I just have trouble believing it can accurately scale up from such a short distance to a much longer distance. Any personal anecdotes?

    I'm glad you asked this, because I plugged the info in from my last "estimated" strava 10k, and the results, while promising, seemed almost too good....
  • WhatMeRunning
    WhatMeRunning Posts: 3,538 Member
    edited May 2017
    Options
    KatieJane83 wrote: »
    So, I do understand that it's an estimate, but does anyone have any experience with how accurately the Daniels VDOT Running Calculator can predict a longer race finishing time from a short race finishing time? My most recent race was a 5k. I haven't had a race longer than that since the fall. My ultimate, dream (for now) goal for my half is a sub-2:00:00, and according to Daniel's VDOT running calculator, based on my 25:29 5k time, it predicts a 1:57 half marathon time. But, I just have trouble believing it can accurately scale up from such a short distance to a much longer distance. Any personal anecdotes?
    I have not seen an accurate HM prediction from a 5k personally. Likewise the predicted full marathon times from my best HM times scare the bejeesus out of me. There is no way that is possible.

    All that said though. Part of it is mental, part physical, I believe. I may very well be physically capable of cranking out that crazy HM time based on my best 5k effort given enough training at that pace AND provided I run so hard I puke the final 5k of the HM. The problem I have is that I have yet to be able to push myself those kinds of distances at those sorts of efforts. This waffling would cause such skewed results.

    So, in short, I think the Daniel's predictions may be spot on if you are made of steel, and not whipped jello like I am.
  • HRKinchen
    HRKinchen Posts: 202 Member
    Options
    Another dreadmill run this morning - this one brought on by thunderstorms with lightning. :disappointed: So I decided to work on endurance and, with the treadmill keeping a steady pace, forced myself to go slowly enough to run for 30 minutes nonstop (2 miles at 4mph). First time I've ever done that! I usually run at a speed of ~5-6mph (still slow, but at least I feel like I'm moving :lol:), but I can never sustain it for more than 15-20 minutes. Today's pace felt almost ridiculous, by comparison, but it worked. Now I'm wondering if I should do more work on the TM until I get better at pacing myself. Just wish I could put the darn thing outside. I hate running inside.

    5/1: 2.0 (2.0/30)
    5/2: 2.25 TM (4.25/30)
    5/3: 2.75 TM (7/30)


  • lporter229
    lporter229 Posts: 4,907 Member
    Options
    KatieJane83 wrote: »
    So, I do understand that it's an estimate, but does anyone have any experience with how accurately the Daniels VDOT Running Calculator can predict a longer race finishing time from a short race finishing time? My most recent race was a 5k. I haven't had a race longer than that since the fall. My ultimate, dream (for now) goal for my half is a sub-2:00:00, and according to Daniel's VDOT running calculator, based on my 25:29 5k time, it predicts a 1:57 half marathon time. But, I just have trouble believing it can accurately scale up from such a short distance to a much longer distance. Any personal anecdotes?

    I have found them to be surprisingly accurate, with the caveat that it assumes that you are bringing your "A" game to each race. In other words, if this is your best effort in your 5K, then that will be what you are capable of in your half marathon. If you did not go all out on that 5K, then you might actually be capable of a faster half marathon. And by "all out", I mean reaching close to max heart rate near the end of the run and feeling like you had nothing left to give. It also depends on how close your races are and where you are in your training. For example, the half-marathon I ran in October and the 10K I ran in February compare fairly closely when I plug them in, but they predict a much faster marathon and 5K than what I have run, but I also did those distances over a year prior (not including my most recent marathon which was run injured), so there were some gains made through training.

    For me, the best predictor is the lactate threshold pace. If you have a good idea of what that is for you, see how it compares to what is predicted based on your race time. If you don't know your LT pace, think about the maximum pace you might be able to sustain for an hour. If I plug in my my marathon PR, the LT pace it suggests for me is very close to what my LT pace was when I was training for that race. Conversely, if I plug in my HM PR, the LT pace matches up better with what it was when I was training for that race. So if you plug in your 5K results and the LT pace it suggests for you sounds about right for where you are now, then I think the predictor will be pretty close. If you think your LT pace is faster, then you can probably expect a faster HM. If it sound too fast, then your HM might be slower. At least this has been my experience.
  • KatieJane83
    KatieJane83 Posts: 2,002 Member
    edited May 2017
    Options
    MNLittleFinn wrote: »
    KatieJane83 wrote: »
    So, I do understand that it's an estimate, but does anyone have any experience with how accurately the Daniels VDOT Running Calculator can predict a longer race finishing time from a short race finishing time? My most recent race was a 5k. I haven't had a race longer than that since the fall. My ultimate, dream (for now) goal for my half is a sub-2:00:00, and according to Daniel's VDOT running calculator, based on my 25:29 5k time, it predicts a 1:57 half marathon time. But, I just have trouble believing it can accurately scale up from such a short distance to a much longer distance. Any personal anecdotes?

    I'm glad you asked this, because I plugged the info in from my last "estimated" strava 10k, and the results, while promising, seemed almost too good....
    WhatMeRunning wrote: »
    KatieJane83 wrote: »
    So, I do understand that it's an estimate, but does anyone have any experience with how accurately the Daniels VDOT Running Calculator can predict a longer race finishing time from a short race finishing time? My most recent race was a 5k. I haven't had a race longer than that since the fall. My ultimate, dream (for now) goal for my half is a sub-2:00:00, and according to Daniel's VDOT running calculator, based on my 25:29 5k time, it predicts a 1:57 half marathon time. But, I just have trouble believing it can accurately scale up from such a short distance to a much longer distance. Any personal anecdotes?
    I have not seen an accurate HM prediction from a 5k personally. Likewise the predicted full marathon times from my best HM times scare the bejeesus out of me. There is no way that is possible.

    All that said though. Part of it is mental, part physical, I believe. I may very well be physically capable of cranking out that crazy HM time based on my best 5k effort given enough training at that pace AND provided I run so hard I puke the final 5k of the HM. The problem I have is that I have yet to be able to push myself those kinds of distances at those sorts of efforts. This waffling would cause such skewed results.

    So, in short, I think the Daniel's predictions may be spot on if you are made of steel, and not whipped jello like I am.

    Yeah, I'm doubtful, that's why I figured I'd ask here. My first HM, which was in September, I did in 2:09:58 (beat my stretch goal by 2 seconds, lol). I find it hard to believe that I've knocked 13 minutes off my HM time between September and May. Would be nice though. A girl can dream, right? :D
  • MNLittleFinn
    MNLittleFinn Posts: 4,271 Member
    Options
    KatieJane83 wrote: »
    Yeah, I'm doubtful, that's why I figured I'd ask here. My first HM, which was in September, I did in 2:09:58 (beat my stretch goal by 2 seconds, lol). I find it hard to believe that I've knocked 13 minutes off my HM time between September and May. Would be nice though. A girl can dream, right? :D
    I have the whole, a guy can dream thing going. Based on my current 10k PR, from this morning, it gives a marathon Estimate of 4:11:28 (9:35 pace), and that's "only" 10sec/mile faster than my pace on my last 19 mile run, on a course that's, according to a runner who's run both, harder than my marathon course, with all the normal caveats.
  • KatieJane83
    KatieJane83 Posts: 2,002 Member
    Options
    MNLittleFinn wrote: »
    KatieJane83 wrote: »
    Yeah, I'm doubtful, that's why I figured I'd ask here. My first HM, which was in September, I did in 2:09:58 (beat my stretch goal by 2 seconds, lol). I find it hard to believe that I've knocked 13 minutes off my HM time between September and May. Would be nice though. A girl can dream, right? :D
    I have the whole, a guy can dream thing going. Based on my current 10k PR, from this morning, it gives a marathon Estimate of 4:11:28 (9:35 pace), and that's "only" 10sec/mile faster than my pace on my last 19 mile run, on a course that's, according to a runner who's run both, harder than my marathon course, with all the normal caveats.

    Lol, I'm doing the same thing right now. I just pulled up the elevation profile of the Adirondack Half, which is what I did in September, and the Tinkerbell Half, and now I'm like, well, obviously the Tinkerbell Half is SOOO much flatter, and my first HM was all the way back in September, I can totally shave 10 min off my time, to get a sub-2:00:00! Lolz. Running - it's a mental illness, lol. I can't even fathom how I'm going to be once I start trying to figure out my marathon goal time for November, ugh.

    hejhu2j7hn27.jpg
  • girlinahat
    girlinahat Posts: 2,956 Member
    edited May 2017
    Options
    JessicaMcB wrote: »
    kristinegift wrote: »
    Stoshew71 wrote: »

    RE: Nice pretty trail shoes.
    They are trail shoes. They will stay pretty for 2 seconds. Then they will get muddy. Buy plain unattractive trail shoes that will protect your feet. Get pretty road shoes. :wink:

    @Stoshew71 This is a good point. But you can clean off trail shoes so they're almost as pretty as they were when they started! You can still tell my Sketchers were gorgeous to start even though they've been caked in mud. :D (Also these pretty colors were the only ones on sale in my size; I'd have happily bought boring colors also!)

    I was going to say the same, I always wash my trail shoes! My road shoes not as often but I don't love them as much ;)

    Wash? Running shoes? What IS this witchery?

    Sometimes I wash my trail shoes. I wait until the mud is good and dry, then bash the around, then give them a wash. Mostly I forget. What I HAVE learnt is that dried out muddy trail shoes are difficult to put on as they have no flex!! A good muddy puddle soon sorts that out.
  • WhatMeRunning
    WhatMeRunning Posts: 3,538 Member
    edited May 2017
    Options
    KatieJane83 wrote: »
    MNLittleFinn wrote: »
    KatieJane83 wrote: »
    So, I do understand that it's an estimate, but does anyone have any experience with how accurately the Daniels VDOT Running Calculator can predict a longer race finishing time from a short race finishing time? My most recent race was a 5k. I haven't had a race longer than that since the fall. My ultimate, dream (for now) goal for my half is a sub-2:00:00, and according to Daniel's VDOT running calculator, based on my 25:29 5k time, it predicts a 1:57 half marathon time. But, I just have trouble believing it can accurately scale up from such a short distance to a much longer distance. Any personal anecdotes?

    I'm glad you asked this, because I plugged the info in from my last "estimated" strava 10k, and the results, while promising, seemed almost too good....
    WhatMeRunning wrote: »
    KatieJane83 wrote: »
    So, I do understand that it's an estimate, but does anyone have any experience with how accurately the Daniels VDOT Running Calculator can predict a longer race finishing time from a short race finishing time? My most recent race was a 5k. I haven't had a race longer than that since the fall. My ultimate, dream (for now) goal for my half is a sub-2:00:00, and according to Daniel's VDOT running calculator, based on my 25:29 5k time, it predicts a 1:57 half marathon time. But, I just have trouble believing it can accurately scale up from such a short distance to a much longer distance. Any personal anecdotes?
    I have not seen an accurate HM prediction from a 5k personally. Likewise the predicted full marathon times from my best HM times scare the bejeesus out of me. There is no way that is possible.

    All that said though. Part of it is mental, part physical, I believe. I may very well be physically capable of cranking out that crazy HM time based on my best 5k effort given enough training at that pace AND provided I run so hard I puke the final 5k of the HM. The problem I have is that I have yet to be able to push myself those kinds of distances at those sorts of efforts. This waffling would cause such skewed results.

    So, in short, I think the Daniel's predictions may be spot on if you are made of steel, and not whipped jello like I am.

    Yeah, I'm doubtful, that's why I figured I'd ask here. My first HM, which was in September, I did in 2:09:58 (beat my stretch goal by 2 seconds, lol). I find it hard to believe that I've knocked 13 minutes off my HM time between September and May. Would be nice though. A girl can dream, right? :D
    @lporter229 nailed it, really.

    I have run a true 5k effort before. Last spring I did my first HM that was beyond simply running at a pace "faster than easy", meaning I actually gave it my physical maximum, and that was really just for the last 5k. I did a "faster than easy" pace, less than tempo effort, for the first 10 miles. I cranked out a surprising time for me based on that final 5k push. It was still not as low as what Daniel's predicted based on the 5k I entered which was honestly run as hard as I could, but this still opened my eyes to how real it could be if I had run those first 10 miles at an honest race effort, the pace shown in the Daniels tables. Granted, had I done that I am pretty certain I would have bonked or just not made it. I didn't TRAIN that hard. My training was increasing mileage at easy pace, doing tempo runs, steady runs, intervals and all that to make myself faster and last longer. But never with a goal pace in mind.

    @MobyCarp posts regularly about his training, what paces he is running at and why, and all of that is part of a structured training regimen he has worked out with his coach. I bet his 5k to HM predictions are spot on because he has run that honest 5k effort, and has trained to stretch that "all out running" sort of efforts to further distances than just 5k. He can take that HM or Full marathon pace that is predicted, plug it into his training plan and run appropriately at MP (Marathon Pace) for the prescribed period of time/distance to build up his stamina at running at that effort for longer distances. All of that training is designed to get him to peak in time for his target race, along with proper tapering, and BAM, there he goes on race day.

    The first trick is getting an honest benchmark to use to plug into the Daniels tables. Maybe it's a 1 mile effort, or better yet a 5k. The trick is to do that distance as fast as you can. You should feel beat up, and like you want to puke perhaps. But that is what a true, honest, 5k RACE effort should be. Once you have that, you can get some accurate predictions from Daniels PROVIDED that you train properly, and when the day comes you run that full distance using everything you have. You can't leave anything in the tank, you should run out right at the finish.

    That is not easy to do.

    So, my experience with my HM times compared to an honest 5k have not matched. BUT...it is possible (I suppose). Someday I hope to prove this to myself. Then again, I don't really like running THAT damn HARD (heart pounding out of your chest). So I'm less motivated than others. It helps if you can reasonably BQ or some other type thing. That will give you incentive to push your physical limits. What drives me seems to be regularity of long distance running, doing HM's every weekend for example, as opposed to doing one target effort in a season. So the reason they don't match up is more because of me than because of the tables. The tables are for athletes focused on racing at their fastest achievable times.
  • MNLittleFinn
    MNLittleFinn Posts: 4,271 Member
    Options
    @WhatMeRunning that was a great synopsis of things. For me, it's interesting, because the "10k" I ran was somewhere in the middle of a 9 mile run. I know for sure that 4 miles of it were at 8:20 pace, because that was the tempo portion, but the other 2.2 miles is anyone's guess, but they would have been ~ 9:20 based on the mile splits before/after the tempo portion of the run.

    I'm trying to run "equivalent" or "hillier" long runs than my marathon, and, other than the one that really sucked because of the wind, I've been within about 10sec/mile of the predicted Daniels marathon pace. I'll be the first to admit that my Long runs usually are run a bit too hard (by HR), but I feel fairly comfortable about them too.....

    I love/hate still being 6.5 weeks out, I have plenty of time to train, but also have too much tome to think "hhhmmm, what could I actually do at the marathon???"
  • lporter229
    lporter229 Posts: 4,907 Member
    edited May 2017
    Options
    MobyCarp wrote: »
    MNLittleFinn wrote: »
    KatieJane83 wrote: »
    Yeah, I'm doubtful, that's why I figured I'd ask here. My first HM, which was in September, I did in 2:09:58 (beat my stretch goal by 2 seconds, lol). I find it hard to believe that I've knocked 13 minutes off my HM time between September and May. Would be nice though. A girl can dream, right? :D
    I have the whole, a guy can dream thing going. Based on my current 10k PR, from this morning, it gives a marathon Estimate of 4:11:28 (9:35 pace), and that's "only" 10sec/mile faster than my pace on my last 19 mile run, on a course that's, according to a runner who's run both, harder than my marathon course, with all the normal caveats.

    Okay, you made me look. If I plug Sunday's 10K PR of 39:54 into the calculator, it predicts:

    Mile 5:38 (actual PR 5:50, but I think I'm faster now)
    5K 19:15 (actual PR 19:07)
    10K 39:54 (duh)
    15K 1:01:22 (actual PR 1:02:02)
    HM 1:28:22 (actual PR 1:28:49)
    Marathon 3:04:14 (actual PR 3:20:53)

    As noted in my earlier post, the distances up to HM are reasonably consistent. Then other stuff is going on at the marathon distance. I think I could break 3:15 with optimal training, perfect weather, and good race management. Break 3:05? I don't think so.

    I have been told by many experienced runners that Daniel's over-estimates their marathon time by anywhere from 10-20 minutes. My 10K PR of 44:56 predicts a marathon of 3:26:42. My actual PR is 3:38:26. And even though I may have been better conditioned when I ran the 10K (my last real race before my injury), at no point would I have even considered targeting a 3:26 marathon. And I think that is the heart of the matter right there. The marathon differs from the other distances in that your goal is met or lost at the beginning of the race, which is why race management is so extremely important.

    IMO, you almost have to decide what pace you are going to be happy with right out of the gate and go for it. It would be a rare occasion that a runner could set a target of X, decide half way through that they aren't going to make it, then slow down to finish at X+5 or 10 minutes. Usually, by the time they figure out that X isn't within reach, it is too late and they are then looking at a struggle to finish in X+30 or even X+60. That is why so few runners are willing to risk going for the Daniel's predicted times. It has to be decided at the get go and there is a lot of risk involved. So it's kind of an all or nothing decision (like I said, in my opinion).

    ETA: When I ran my 3:38:26, I was targeting a 3:42-3:43, which I felt reasonably comfortable with. Daniels had predicted a 3:36 based on my HM PR at the time. Just throwing this info out there for you @MNLittleFinn , because it is the type of data I would have found useful when planning for my first marathon. Also keep in mind that I believe you are a much bigger risk taker than I am :)

Categories