Coronavirus prep
Replies
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cmriverside wrote: »This is a good article that hits all the high points...no pun intended, but it also explains the Flattening of the Curve and why it's important and why things are being done the way they are (with closings and travel bans etc.)
Herd Immunity is a BIG deal...and that's what we have with the seasonal flu, plus we have widespread vaccine use for the seasonal flu. Yes, a lot of people die of the regular flu, but they don't all present at hospitals in a one-month period of time, and they do present at a fairly predictable rate and it's not half the population needing medical help all at the same time.
I haven't gotten any flu in decades, but I do get a flu shot every year. I am careful and I am healthy but I have herd immunity to partially thank for that.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine
Specifically about flattening the curve:
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation
The graphic, which was in both articles, was a helpful explanation of "flattening the curve.":format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19780273/flattening_the_curve_final.jpg)
Because the curve was not flattened in Italy, their medical system is completely overwhelmed.12 -
midlomel1971 wrote: »
The flu kills tens of thousands of people each year and no one bats an eye at it. I’m not going to panic over it and stop living life. Are we going to shut down events and travel every flu season from now on? Should we?lynn_glenmont wrote: »midlomel1971 wrote: »I live in Central VA and I have noticed nothing out of stock where we live. Not yet anyway.
They just announced that schools are closed tomorrow for kids. Apparently the teachers are supposed to clean their rooms and also prepare plans in case they shut down the schools in the coming weeks (which I'm positive they will do next week, especially since we didn't have a single snow day this year.)
I honestly think it's a whole lot of panic over something small, but they are all afraid of liability. Personally, I refuse to submit to panic. I am not going to rush the store for supplies, I am not going to stop going to the gym and restaurants. I am happy to be the only one out when everyone else stays at home.
Something small? 6% death rate in Italy, where they're running out of respirators for the sick? Why do you think things will be better in the U.S. when our pro-active response has been, of anything, worse than Italy's, and our president is still pretending it's not really here and we can prevent the spread by shutting down flights from Eyrope?
THIS IS NOT THE FLU DEAR. Sorry, but I'm sitting here in quarantine in Italy for at least 2 weeks and probably longer. All of Italy is a ghost town and you compare this to a normal flu season? For shame!39 -
midlomel1971 wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »midlomel1971 wrote: »
The flu kills tens of thousands of people each year and no one bats an eye at it. I’m not going to panic over it and stop living life. Are we going to shut down events and travel every flu season from now on? Should we?lynn_glenmont wrote: »midlomel1971 wrote: »I live in Central VA and I have noticed nothing out of stock where we live. Not yet anyway.
They just announced that schools are closed tomorrow for kids. Apparently the teachers are supposed to clean their rooms and also prepare plans in case they shut down the schools in the coming weeks (which I'm positive they will do next week, especially since we didn't have a single snow day this year.)
I honestly think it's a whole lot of panic over something small, but they are all afraid of liability. Personally, I refuse to submit to panic. I am not going to rush the store for supplies, I am not going to stop going to the gym and restaurants. I am happy to be the only one out when everyone else stays at home.
Something small? 6% death rate in Italy, where they're running out of respirators for the sick? Why do you think things will be better in the U.S. when our pro-active response has been, of anything, worse than Italy's, and our president is still pretending it's not really here and we can prevent the spread by shutting down flights from Eyrope?
This attitude irritates me to no end. The flu is endemic--it's spread far and wide, and hospitals are not generally overrun with patients. This coronavirus is a NEW virus, and humans have never experienced it before. It spreads relatively easily. We should learn from China and Italy how quickly hospitals can be overwhelmed with critical patients in need of life-saving support.
In addition, the flu death rate is 0.1%, while the average death rate of COVID-19 is 3.5%, so that is a 35-fold difference in death rate. I will repeat that--it is 35 times more deadly. Even Fauci of the CDC said COVID-19 is 10-times worse than the flu. Just because the overall numbers of infected is still much lower than the flu, does not make it less sever than the flu. I'll even put it another way--the COVID-19 death rate is 1 in 33, while flu death rate is 1 in 1000.
How is it that people are still calling this "like the flu"? Look it up yourself--there are plenty of articles explaining exactly why this is not true!!
I’m not saying it’s like the flu but I don’t understand why people are stocking up on food and toilet paper when we experience thousands of flu deaths every year. I’m not worried about this one iota. People are acting like it’s The Stand or something.
Because if you get the flu, you'll probably be miserable for a couple weeks and then get back to your life. If you get coronavirus, you have a non-trivial chance of ending up dead.
How much more reason is needed to bulk-order some supplies and hunker down at home as much as possible for a while?17 -
midlomel1971 wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »midlomel1971 wrote: »
The flu kills tens of thousands of people each year and no one bats an eye at it. I’m not going to panic over it and stop living life. Are we going to shut down events and travel every flu season from now on? Should we?lynn_glenmont wrote: »midlomel1971 wrote: »I live in Central VA and I have noticed nothing out of stock where we live. Not yet anyway.
They just announced that schools are closed tomorrow for kids. Apparently the teachers are supposed to clean their rooms and also prepare plans in case they shut down the schools in the coming weeks (which I'm positive they will do next week, especially since we didn't have a single snow day this year.)
I honestly think it's a whole lot of panic over something small, but they are all afraid of liability. Personally, I refuse to submit to panic. I am not going to rush the store for supplies, I am not going to stop going to the gym and restaurants. I am happy to be the only one out when everyone else stays at home.
Something small? 6% death rate in Italy, where they're running out of respirators for the sick? Why do you think things will be better in the U.S. when our pro-active response has been, of anything, worse than Italy's, and our president is still pretending it's not really here and we can prevent the spread by shutting down flights from Eyrope?
This attitude irritates me to no end. The flu is endemic--it's spread far and wide, and hospitals are not generally overrun with patients. This coronavirus is a NEW virus, and humans have never experienced it before. It spreads relatively easily. We should learn from China and Italy how quickly hospitals can be overwhelmed with critical patients in need of life-saving support.
In addition, the flu death rate is 0.1%, while the average death rate of COVID-19 is 3.5%, so that is a 35-fold difference in death rate. I will repeat that--it is 35 times more deadly. Even Fauci of the CDC said COVID-19 is 10-times worse than the flu. Just because the overall numbers of infected is still much lower than the flu, does not make it less sever than the flu. I'll even put it another way--the COVID-19 death rate is 1 in 33, while flu death rate is 1 in 1000.
How is it that people are still calling this "like the flu"? Look it up yourself--there are plenty of articles explaining exactly why this is not true!!
I’m not saying it’s like the flu but I don’t understand why people are stocking up on food and toilet paper when we experience thousands of flu deaths every year. I’m not worried about this one iota. People are acting like it’s The Stand or something.
Because if you get the flu, you'll probably be miserable for a couple weeks and then get back to your life. If you get coronavirus, you have a non-trivial chance of ending up dead.
How much more reason is needed to bulk-order some supplies and hunker down at home as much as possible for a while?
Or even "only" in a hospital for a couple of weeks on a respirator--not how I want to spend my time!14 -
Assuming there's a hospital with a respirator available for you to be on.lightenup2016 wrote: »midlomel1971 wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »midlomel1971 wrote: »
The flu kills tens of thousands of people each year and no one bats an eye at it. I’m not going to panic over it and stop living life. Are we going to shut down events and travel every flu season from now on? Should we?lynn_glenmont wrote: »midlomel1971 wrote: »I live in Central VA and I have noticed nothing out of stock where we live. Not yet anyway.
They just announced that schools are closed tomorrow for kids. Apparently the teachers are supposed to clean their rooms and also prepare plans in case they shut down the schools in the coming weeks (which I'm positive they will do next week, especially since we didn't have a single snow day this year.)
I honestly think it's a whole lot of panic over something small, but they are all afraid of liability. Personally, I refuse to submit to panic. I am not going to rush the store for supplies, I am not going to stop going to the gym and restaurants. I am happy to be the only one out when everyone else stays at home.
Something small? 6% death rate in Italy, where they're running out of respirators for the sick? Why do you think things will be better in the U.S. when our pro-active response has been, of anything, worse than Italy's, and our president is still pretending it's not really here and we can prevent the spread by shutting down flights from Eyrope?
This attitude irritates me to no end. The flu is endemic--it's spread far and wide, and hospitals are not generally overrun with patients. This coronavirus is a NEW virus, and humans have never experienced it before. It spreads relatively easily. We should learn from China and Italy how quickly hospitals can be overwhelmed with critical patients in need of life-saving support.
In addition, the flu death rate is 0.1%, while the average death rate of COVID-19 is 3.5%, so that is a 35-fold difference in death rate. I will repeat that--it is 35 times more deadly. Even Fauci of the CDC said COVID-19 is 10-times worse than the flu. Just because the overall numbers of infected is still much lower than the flu, does not make it less sever than the flu. I'll even put it another way--the COVID-19 death rate is 1 in 33, while flu death rate is 1 in 1000.
How is it that people are still calling this "like the flu"? Look it up yourself--there are plenty of articles explaining exactly why this is not true!!
I’m not saying it’s like the flu but I don’t understand why people are stocking up on food and toilet paper when we experience thousands of flu deaths every year. I’m not worried about this one iota. People are acting like it’s The Stand or something.
Because if you get the flu, you'll probably be miserable for a couple weeks and then get back to your life. If you get coronavirus, you have a non-trivial chance of ending up dead.
How much more reason is needed to bulk-order some supplies and hunker down at home as much as possible for a while?
Or even "only" in a hospital for a couple of weeks on a respirator--not how I want to spend my time!24 -
midlomel1971 wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »midlomel1971 wrote: »
The flu kills tens of thousands of people each year and no one bats an eye at it. I’m not going to panic over it and stop living life. Are we going to shut down events and travel every flu season from now on? Should we?lynn_glenmont wrote: »midlomel1971 wrote: »I live in Central VA and I have noticed nothing out of stock where we live. Not yet anyway.
They just announced that schools are closed tomorrow for kids. Apparently the teachers are supposed to clean their rooms and also prepare plans in case they shut down the schools in the coming weeks (which I'm positive they will do next week, especially since we didn't have a single snow day this year.)
I honestly think it's a whole lot of panic over something small, but they are all afraid of liability. Personally, I refuse to submit to panic. I am not going to rush the store for supplies, I am not going to stop going to the gym and restaurants. I am happy to be the only one out when everyone else stays at home.
Something small? 6% death rate in Italy, where they're running out of respirators for the sick? Why do you think things will be better in the U.S. when our pro-active response has been, of anything, worse than Italy's, and our president is still pretending it's not really here and we can prevent the spread by shutting down flights from Eyrope?
This attitude irritates me to no end. The flu is endemic--it's spread far and wide, and hospitals are not generally overrun with patients. This coronavirus is a NEW virus, and humans have never experienced it before. It spreads relatively easily. We should learn from China and Italy how quickly hospitals can be overwhelmed with critical patients in need of life-saving support.
In addition, the flu death rate is 0.1%, while the average death rate of COVID-19 is 3.5%, so that is a 35-fold difference in death rate. I will repeat that--it is 35 times more deadly. Even Fauci of the CDC said COVID-19 is 10-times worse than the flu. Just because the overall numbers of infected is still much lower than the flu, does not make it less sever than the flu. I'll even put it another way--the COVID-19 death rate is 1 in 33, while flu death rate is 1 in 1000.
How is it that people are still calling this "like the flu"? Look it up yourself--there are plenty of articles explaining exactly why this is not true!!
I’m not saying it’s like the flu but I don’t understand why people are stocking up on food and toilet paper when we experience thousands of flu deaths every year. I’m not worried about this one iota. People are acting like it’s The Stand or something.
Because if you get the flu, you'll probably be miserable for a couple weeks and then get back to your life. If you get coronavirus, you have a non-trivial chance of ending up dead.
How much more reason is needed to bulk-order some supplies and hunker down at home as much as possible for a while?
I don't even think that's it. I mean if you get the regular seasonal flu you have a pretty good chance of ending up dead, too. So far it looks like the death rate will be similar to seasonal flu once enough data is collected and once this initial immunity is built. Right now, just like seasonal flu it's hitting those with weakened natural immune systems - like the elderly. Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch says in one of the articles that there's a tipping point for endemic infection and then herd immunity. That number is around 50% total population infection rate. https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine
Most of us are likely going to get it, but we don't want it all to happen right away. We need time.
All these mitigation tactics being employed are trying to buy time. Time for a gradual infection rate and immunity, time to develop vaccines, time to manufacture more anti-virals and immune system boosting drugs, time to gear up the physical medical infrastructure. It's not going away, we can't stop SARS-cov2. It's here.10 -
cmriverside wrote: »This is a good article that hits all the high points...no pun intended, but it also explains the Flattening of the Curve and why it's important and why things are being done the way they are (with closings and travel bans etc.)
Herd Immunity is a BIG deal...and that's what we have with the seasonal flu, plus we have widespread vaccine use for the seasonal flu. Yes, a lot of people die of the regular flu, but they don't all present at hospitals in a one-month period of time, and they do present at a fairly predictable rate and it's not half the population needing medical help all at the same time.
I haven't gotten any flu in decades, but I do get a flu shot every year. I am careful and I am healthy but I have herd immunity to partially thank for that.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine
Specifically about flattening the curve:
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation
Is there any idea of what that time frame looks like in the graph? All I see right now is that things are getting cancelled and postponed indefinitely into the future. If there was a known effective time frame (it look like there is, but the chart isn't marked), then that would ease some concerns. I, for one, would be unhappy if everything is getting cancelled for the "this year and next."1 -
midlomel1971 wrote: »
The flu kills tens of thousands of people each year and no one bats an eye at it. I’m not going to panic over it and stop living life. Are we going to shut down events and travel every flu season from now on? Should we?lynn_glenmont wrote: »midlomel1971 wrote: »I live in Central VA and I have noticed nothing out of stock where we live. Not yet anyway.
They just announced that schools are closed tomorrow for kids. Apparently the teachers are supposed to clean their rooms and also prepare plans in case they shut down the schools in the coming weeks (which I'm positive they will do next week, especially since we didn't have a single snow day this year.)
I honestly think it's a whole lot of panic over something small, but they are all afraid of liability. Personally, I refuse to submit to panic. I am not going to rush the store for supplies, I am not going to stop going to the gym and restaurants. I am happy to be the only one out when everyone else stays at home.
Something small? 6% death rate in Italy, where they're running out of respirators for the sick? Why do you think things will be better in the U.S. when our pro-active response has been, of anything, worse than Italy's, and our president is still pretending it's not really here and we can prevent the spread by shutting down flights from Eyrope?
This is 10 to 20 times worse mortality then the flu. How do you feel about 11 to 21 times the normal flu deaths that is what we are looking at. Because flu is still a thing.
You can get a flu shot to protect yourself you can not get a covid-19 shot and the vaccine will not be available until 2021 or 2022.10 -
snowflake954 wrote: »jseams1234 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »extra_medium wrote: »Italy in bad shape. Over 600 dead and over 10k active cases. Hospitals stopped all operations / procedures and overflowing caring for covid patients. Bad scene! We need to be vigilant and people need to stop poo pooing claiming it's just no worse than a regular flu blah blah it is killing people globally.
The regular flu kills people globally
We have the regular flu every year in Italy--it's not on this scale.
https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week
This was 2019/2020. Almost 3 Million cases reported by Jan 19 and half a million additional in just one week. At the time of the report deaths were approaching 300. I'm not downplaying the dangers of COVID-19 but the only difference in scale (the flu was worse) is mostly in the response to the outbreak.
With this kind of logic don't you think it's strange that the country didn't go into quarantine in January? The Northern part of Italy is now begging the government to shut down public transportation and all shops and stores that are non-essential. I've seen doctors and nurses crying on TV and begging people to stay home and follow government guidelines. If you feel better believing that this is just a flu then good for you.
For people that want to slow the progression of the virus: no non-essential travel (yes, cancel those vacations), stay away from crowded places, if you go out, wash your hands as soon as you enter your home, keep a distance when meeting and greeting people, avoid touching people, be sensible, do what you need to and look around and see if you can help elderly or infirm by shopping for them and keeping in touch by phone so they don't feel abandoned.
This will pass, but please don't tell people that it's "just the flu" and go about business as usual. I've seen what happens when you do that. Stay safe people.
It's not "just the flu," however I am concerned the responses are promoting panic over preparedness.
In the US this so far this flu season:- 34 million illnesses
- 350,000 hospitalizations
- 20,000 deaths
Realistically, we should (all) exercise more caution during flu season. And if this is how we get there, I am happy for the increased awareness of how easily viruses can be passed. However, where we should be promoting calm and rationality, as well as respect for our more vulnerable citizens, I instead see panic. Such as the doctors and nurses crying on TV mentioned above. How does health officials panic-sobbing help keep citizens calm and following procedures meant to help keep everyone safe? It seems akin to yelling fire in a crowded theater instead of asking folks to get up and quickly proceed to the nearest exit.9 -
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I sincerely hope you dodge the bullet. Because if not, you will be woefully unprepared. The knowledge gained from what's happening in Italy came at a huge price. Ignore it at your own peril.
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I live within a ten minute drive of at least 15-20 major grocery stores, lots of family, not to mention drug stores etc. We’re good.2 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »cmriverside wrote: »This is a good article that hits all the high points...no pun intended, but it also explains the Flattening of the Curve and why it's important and why things are being done the way they are (with closings and travel bans etc.)
Herd Immunity is a BIG deal...and that's what we have with the seasonal flu, plus we have widespread vaccine use for the seasonal flu. Yes, a lot of people die of the regular flu, but they don't all present at hospitals in a one-month period of time, and they do present at a fairly predictable rate and it's not half the population needing medical help all at the same time.
I haven't gotten any flu in decades, but I do get a flu shot every year. I am careful and I am healthy but I have herd immunity to partially thank for that.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine
Specifically about flattening the curve:
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation
Is there any idea of what that time frame looks like in the graph? All I see right now is that things are getting cancelled and postponed indefinitely into the future. If there was a known effective time frame (it look like there is, but the chart isn't marked), then that would ease some concerns. I, for one, would be unhappy if everything is getting cancelled for the "this year and next."
That graph is from the CDC.
The first article specifically delves into, "How Does This End?" - https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine
Since this is a New Approach (social distancing/mass closings) we've not tried before with novel viruses, I think your guess is as good as mine.
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T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »cmriverside wrote: »This is a good article that hits all the high points...no pun intended, but it also explains the Flattening of the Curve and why it's important and why things are being done the way they are (with closings and travel bans etc.)
Herd Immunity is a BIG deal...and that's what we have with the seasonal flu, plus we have widespread vaccine use for the seasonal flu. Yes, a lot of people die of the regular flu, but they don't all present at hospitals in a one-month period of time, and they do present at a fairly predictable rate and it's not half the population needing medical help all at the same time.
I haven't gotten any flu in decades, but I do get a flu shot every year. I am careful and I am healthy but I have herd immunity to partially thank for that.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine
Specifically about flattening the curve:
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation
Is there any idea of what that time frame looks like in the graph? All I see right now is that things are getting cancelled and postponed indefinitely into the future. If there was a known effective time frame (it look like there is, but the chart isn't marked), then that would ease some concerns. I, for one, would be unhappy if everything is getting cancelled for the "this year and next."
I would love to know this as well, but I'm not sure anyone can answer that right now. The US specifically is such a large nation, it could continue to hop around for awhile? Is that happening in China?2 -
As of Wednesday 3/12, NM had their first 3 presumptive cases...today it is up to 5...all had traveled to areas with a large number of infections.
The State as well as private venues, etc have taken pretty quick action. The NMAA High School basketball tournament started yesterday...the remainder of the tournament will be played, but no audience. The USL which is the league our New Mexico United soccer team plays in has suspended their season until further notice. There is currently no bans on large gatherings, however, organizations are voluntarily shutting things down. Monster Truck Jam this weekend has been postponed indefinitely as well as several other conferences and other events, including the Escape from Margaritaville show I was to attend with my wife.
Schools have put a moratorium on extra curricular activities as well. I think these are all good things...I don't see these as panic moves, but rather common sense social distancing to slow the progression of the virus and minimize the number of people who get infected.
On a personal note, I am canceling the road trip to Colorado that I was going to do with my boys for Spring break. The main event was going to be going to watch Supercross at Mile High Stadium and I'm working under the assumption that it will be postponed as it seems most states are either shutting these things down or people are voluntarily postponing. But also, part of this trip was to go see a buddy of mine I've known since 2nd grade and I was informed by his wife a couple of weeks ago that he passed away in a freak ice climbing accident...I was also going to see my grandmother (88) but was informed last Saturday that she fell and broke her hip and is in rehab in a nursing home and no visitors are allowed...so pretty much that trip was cursed and I'm thinking something in the universe didn't want me to take it. I'm thinking I'll take my boys on a father and son's camping trip for three or four nights instead.
I've also put a self imposed moratorium on the gym for a month. It is a very busy gym and I'm sure a breeding ground in general. I typically don't worry about it as I seem to have a pretty good immunity to things...but there's obviously no built up immunity to this. The weather is getting nicer anyway so I've been spending more time on my road bike and mountain bike...so no weight lifting or spin classes for a month. We also had a date night for Saturday planned in conjunction with the off broadway show and we're thinking we're going to cancel dinner plans and still send the boys off to Grandma's, but just have dinner and a movie at home.
Food wise I think we're good if we end up in a quarantine...we always keep a pretty stocked freezer of meat, poultry, and seafood and a pretty well stocked pantry. We also have a 20 Lb bag of pinto beans in the pantry...I'll probably buy some rice this weekend.
We are setting up the camper for quarantine this weekend. We're thinking that if one of us gets sick we will quarantine in the camper and the kids and whichever one of us isn't sick will self quarantine in the house.
Had a high level executive meeting at work this morning. No in person meetings of more than 10 people. Out of state travel for business or conferences is banned. Nobody is allowed to attend any in person trainings or conferences in state until further notice (most of these are being cancelled or moved to an online format anyway). We cannot ban employee personal travel, but we are enforcing a 14 day quarantine upon their return if they travel to a state that has more than five infected or if it is travel outside of the country. All supervisors are required to send staff home if they appear to be ill, even if they don't have a fever. Staff are being instructed to stay home if they are feeling ill, especially if they have a fever and are encouraged to get tested if they have coronavirus symptoms. Emergency paid administrative sick leave will be granted to those who test positive and must isolate if they do not have available sick or vacation time. We are also propping open doors that aren't security access so people don't have to touch door knobs, etc and lysol and clorox wipes are being provided namely to those individuals who work closely with the public. There are other protocols that will kick in if things become much worse like rotating staff on a skeleton crew to minimize contact with the public and having those that can work from home (namely administration) work from home. We are a courthouse, so we can't just close up shop and deny access to justice so we're somewhat limited in that capacity.
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midlomel1971 wrote: »
The flu kills tens of thousands of people each year and no one bats an eye at it. I’m not going to panic over it and stop living life. Are we going to shut down events and travel every flu season from now on? Should we?lynn_glenmont wrote: »midlomel1971 wrote: »I live in Central VA and I have noticed nothing out of stock where we live. Not yet anyway.
They just announced that schools are closed tomorrow for kids. Apparently the teachers are supposed to clean their rooms and also prepare plans in case they shut down the schools in the coming weeks (which I'm positive they will do next week, especially since we didn't have a single snow day this year.)
I honestly think it's a whole lot of panic over something small, but they are all afraid of liability. Personally, I refuse to submit to panic. I am not going to rush the store for supplies, I am not going to stop going to the gym and restaurants. I am happy to be the only one out when everyone else stays at home.
Something small? 6% death rate in Italy, where they're running out of respirators for the sick? Why do you think things will be better in the U.S. when our pro-active response has been, of anything, worse than Italy's, and our president is still pretending it's not really here and we can prevent the spread by shutting down flights from Eyrope?
Shutting down large events isn't panic...it's a common sense precautionary move to slow the spread of the virus and help keep numbers down. We have vaccinations for the flu as well as naturally built up immunities...we don't for this virus which means if it isn't contained or mitigated, it could easily spin out of control and exceed anything we see with the seasonal flu.
Nobody is talking about panic...just common sense precautionary measures to slow this thing down.18 -
cwolfman13 wrote: »As of Wednesday 3/12, NM had their first 3 presumptive cases...today it is up to 5...all had traveled to areas with a large number of infections.
The State as well as private venues, etc have taken pretty quick action. The NMAA High School basketball tournament started yesterday...the remainder of the tournament will be played, but no audience. The USL which is the league our New Mexico United soccer team plays in has suspended their season until further notice. There is currently no bans on large gatherings, however, organizations are voluntarily shutting things down. Monster Truck Jam this weekend has been postponed indefinitely as well as several other conferences and other events, including the Escape from Margaritaville show I was to attend with my wife.
Schools have put a moratorium on extra curricular activities as well. I think these are all good things...I don't see these as panic moves, but rather common sense social distancing to slow the progression of the virus and minimize the number of people who get infected.
On a personal note, I am canceling the road trip to Colorado that I was going to do with my boys for Spring break. The main event was going to be going to watch Supercross at Mile High Stadium and I'm working under the assumption that it will be postponed as it seems most states are either shutting these things down or people are voluntarily postponing. But also, part of this trip was to go see a buddy of mine I've known since 2nd grade and I was informed by his wife a couple of weeks ago that he passed away in a freak ice climbing accident...I was also going to see my grandmother (88) but was informed last Saturday that she fell and broke her hip and is in rehab in a nursing home and no visitors are allowed...so pretty much that trip was cursed and I'm thinking something in the universe didn't want me to take it. I'm thinking I'll take my boys on a father and son's camping trip for three or four nights instead.
I've also put a self imposed moratorium on the gym for a month. It is a very busy gym and I'm sure a breeding ground in general. I typically don't worry about it as I seem to have a pretty good immunity to things...but there's obviously no built up immunity to this. The weather is getting nicer anyway so I've been spending more time on my road bike and mountain bike...so no weight lifting or spin classes for a month. We also had a date night for Saturday planned in conjunction with the off broadway show and we're thinking we're going to cancel dinner plans and still send the boys off to Grandma's, but just have dinner and a movie at home.
Food wise I think we're good if we end up in a quarantine...we always keep a pretty stocked freezer of meat, poultry, and seafood and a pretty well stocked pantry. We also have a 20 Lb bag of pinto beans in the pantry...I'll probably buy some rice this weekend.
We are setting up the camper for quarantine this weekend. We're thinking that if one of us gets sick we will quarantine in the camper and the kids and whichever one of us isn't sick will self quarantine in the house.
Had a high level executive meeting at work this morning. No in person meetings of more than 10 people. Out of state travel for business or conferences is banned. Nobody is allowed to attend any in person trainings or conferences in state until further notice (most of these are being cancelled or moved to an online format anyway). We cannot ban employee personal travel, but we are enforcing a 14 day quarantine upon their return if they travel to a state that has more than five infected or if it is travel outside of the country. All supervisors are required to send staff home if they appear to be ill, even if they don't have a fever. Staff are being instructed to stay home if they are feeling ill, especially if they have a fever and are encouraged to get tested if they have coronavirus symptoms. Emergency paid administrative sick leave will be granted to those who test positive and must isolate if they do not have available sick or vacation time. We are also propping open doors that aren't security access so people don't have to touch door knobs, etc and lysol and clorox wipes are being provided namely to those individuals who work closely with the public. There are other protocols that will kick in if things become much worse like rotating staff on a skeleton crew to minimize contact with the public and having those that can work from home (namely administration) work from home. We are a courthouse, so we can't just close up shop and deny access to justice so we're somewhat limited in that capacity.
Mass gatherings defined as 100 or more individuals are now banned. https://nmhealth.org/publication/view/help/5668/3 -
Okay it’s not just 2 weeks it’s longer than that. You can take 1-24days to show symptoms.Then you are quarantined 14days or until you finally stop testing positive.So anywhere after symptoms from 2weeks-1 1/2months they are varied.Search listen to the diamond cruise ship positive folks to other countries news. Mall lady in San Antonio Tx who spread it for us took 15days before she tested positive!! She will have been quarantined 14days again (28 days quarantined + her ship quarantine)in March 17th then she will be tested 3 times before she will be released “IF” they all come back negative. If they still come up positive the poor woman will be quarantined until she gets 3 negative tests no matter how long that takes so of course your waiting days for test results. Stuck in a cruise ship you get quarantined for weeks then for 2weeks quarantine on a base then if positive more weeks of quarantine. The lucky folks get it quick y over quick. Unlucky folks it drags on .
So how long can you be sick for?
So luckiest person 15days total
The most unlucky Guy which has happened 1 1/2months total
Average 5days for symptoms to show plus 2-3weeks quarantine
Stuck on a cruise that has a positive case (darn it moment)long long quarantine even if your not sick 😷 held hostage go through the motions. You test positive it keeps on going until your negative.
Stuck in a foreign country- Your quarantines going to be their rules not your home country of origin. Like this poor guy https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/11/egypt-matt-swider-coronavirus/
Lady who her friends y her got it on Feb 22 at a casual house party. Had the average reaction not a major one .March 7 positive test results.Illness for their group averaged 10-16days each. (8 days of it was fever 🤒 🥵 ). Luckily the worst case was only a Low level Phemonia not a higher level
https://www.click2houston.com/health/2020/03/11/i-had-covid-19-and-heres-my-story-woman-shares-details-of-coronavirus-experience/3 -
Broadway just shut down till mid April4
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cmriverside wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »cmriverside wrote: »This is a good article that hits all the high points...no pun intended, but it also explains the Flattening of the Curve and why it's important and why things are being done the way they are (with closings and travel bans etc.)
Herd Immunity is a BIG deal...and that's what we have with the seasonal flu, plus we have widespread vaccine use for the seasonal flu. Yes, a lot of people die of the regular flu, but they don't all present at hospitals in a one-month period of time, and they do present at a fairly predictable rate and it's not half the population needing medical help all at the same time.
I haven't gotten any flu in decades, but I do get a flu shot every year. I am careful and I am healthy but I have herd immunity to partially thank for that.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine
Specifically about flattening the curve:
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation
Is there any idea of what that time frame looks like in the graph? All I see right now is that things are getting cancelled and postponed indefinitely into the future. If there was a known effective time frame (it look like there is, but the chart isn't marked), then that would ease some concerns. I, for one, would be unhappy if everything is getting cancelled for the "this year and next."
That graph is from the CDC.
The first article specifically delves into, "How Does This End?" - https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine
Since this is a New Approach (social distancing/mass closings) we've not tried before with novel viruses, I think your guess is as good as mine.
Sounds like it really isn't known or predicted. I'm not suggesting an end to the virus. In fact, I can see that it becomes a thing that goes around indefinitely like the common cold. I am hoping there is a timeline soon about how long everything gets canceled before the "Flattening of the Curve" is complete and we can start going on with our normal lives again. I'm not concerned about the virus, but I am concerned about the results from panic and uncertainty of indefinite postponement and impending cancellation of events.3 -
Because even grim threads need a little humor, and I think this is potentially useful humor . . . unfortunately, possibly only fully accessible to those with Facebook, so I've included a two-piece screen grab as well as the link (which is to a public post):
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10159131850073273&id=507718272&sfnsn=mo
38 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »cmriverside wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »cmriverside wrote: »This is a good article that hits all the high points...no pun intended, but it also explains the Flattening of the Curve and why it's important and why things are being done the way they are (with closings and travel bans etc.)
Herd Immunity is a BIG deal...and that's what we have with the seasonal flu, plus we have widespread vaccine use for the seasonal flu. Yes, a lot of people die of the regular flu, but they don't all present at hospitals in a one-month period of time, and they do present at a fairly predictable rate and it's not half the population needing medical help all at the same time.
I haven't gotten any flu in decades, but I do get a flu shot every year. I am careful and I am healthy but I have herd immunity to partially thank for that.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine
Specifically about flattening the curve:
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation
Is there any idea of what that time frame looks like in the graph? All I see right now is that things are getting cancelled and postponed indefinitely into the future. If there was a known effective time frame (it look like there is, but the chart isn't marked), then that would ease some concerns. I, for one, would be unhappy if everything is getting cancelled for the "this year and next."
That graph is from the CDC.
The first article specifically delves into, "How Does This End?" - https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine
Since this is a New Approach (social distancing/mass closings) we've not tried before with novel viruses, I think your guess is as good as mine.
Sounds like it really isn't known or predicted. I'm not suggesting an end to the virus. In fact, I can see that it becomes a thing that goes around indefinitely like the common cold. I am hoping there is a timeline soon about how long everything gets canceled before the "Flattening of the Curve" is complete and we can start going on with our normal lives again. I'm not concerned about the virus, but I am concerned about the results from panic and uncertainty of indefinite postponement and impending cancellation of events.
It seems like (to me) that the closures and cancellations will be short-term...otherwise the costs will be too great.
I mean, it worked pretty well in China if you believe their current new infection rates.
I'm cautiously optimistic that this will shock those of us who were not taking this seriously (enough) and at the same time slow this little virus down. I think you'd like that article I linked.
4 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xylospongium
Ancient Rome didn’t have toilet paper 🧻 but they did have shared public toilets 🚽 (cheek to cheek not your face) with a shared sponge 🧽 on a stick to wipe. Yuck 🤢
Xylospongium they were called.
Daughter reminded me about it. Lol 😂 Told her we have enough paper items to rags we won’t get that gross again lol .4 -
Ann.
Awesome.0 -
snowflake954 wrote: »jseams1234 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »extra_medium wrote: »Italy in bad shape. Over 600 dead and over 10k active cases. Hospitals stopped all operations / procedures and overflowing caring for covid patients. Bad scene! We need to be vigilant and people need to stop poo pooing claiming it's just no worse than a regular flu blah blah it is killing people globally.
The regular flu kills people globally
We have the regular flu every year in Italy--it's not on this scale.
https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week
This was 2019/2020. Almost 3 Million cases reported by Jan 19 and half a million additional in just one week. At the time of the report deaths were approaching 300. I'm not downplaying the dangers of COVID-19 but the only difference in scale (the flu was worse) is mostly in the response to the outbreak.
With this kind of logic don't you think it's strange that the country didn't go into quarantine in January? The Northern part of Italy is now begging the government to shut down public transportation and all shops and stores that are non-essential. I've seen doctors and nurses crying on TV and begging people to stay home and follow government guidelines. If you feel better believing that this is just a flu then good for you.
For people that want to slow the progression of the virus: no non-essential travel (yes, cancel those vacations), stay away from crowded places, if you go out, wash your hands as soon as you enter your home, keep a distance when meeting and greeting people, avoid touching people, be sensible, do what you need to and look around and see if you can help elderly or infirm by shopping for them and keeping in touch by phone so they don't feel abandoned.
This will pass, but please don't tell people that it's "just the flu" and go about business as usual. I've seen what happens when you do that. Stay safe people.
It's not "just the flu," however I am concerned the responses are promoting panic over preparedness.
In the US this so far this flu season:- 34 million illnesses
- 350,000 hospitalizations
- 20,000 deaths
Realistically, we should (all) exercise more caution during flu season. And if this is how we get there, I am happy for the increased awareness of how easily viruses can be passed. However, where we should be promoting calm and rationality, as well as respect for our more vulnerable citizens, I instead see panic. Such as the doctors and nurses crying on TV mentioned above. How does health officials panic-sobbing help keep citizens calm and following procedures meant to help keep everyone safe? It seems akin to yelling fire in a crowded theater instead of asking folks to get up and quickly proceed to the nearest exit.
You don't know the Italians. They are not used to pulling together as a people for various historical reasons that I won't go into here. They are however, extremely generous and loving. If you can persuade them that there is great suffering they will do whatever they can to help. I am seeing them working together now as never before. They are seriously going to stop this. I hope my fellow Americans will do the same. If buying hoards of TP will get them moving in the right direction--so be it.14 -
Spot the oopsie in this capture of this BBC video (the yellow text is mine)
0 -
Did anyone who watched Trump’s address tonite from the Oval Office on coronavirus think he seemed a little wheezy? He was with people a day or two ago that have tested positive for the virus.
He is always wheezy when he reads from a teleprompter, but last night he was like a robot, besides other things....2 -
snowflake954 wrote: »jseams1234 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »extra_medium wrote: »Italy in bad shape. Over 600 dead and over 10k active cases. Hospitals stopped all operations / procedures and overflowing caring for covid patients. Bad scene! We need to be vigilant and people need to stop poo pooing claiming it's just no worse than a regular flu blah blah it is killing people globally.
The regular flu kills people globally
We have the regular flu every year in Italy--it's not on this scale.
https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week
This was 2019/2020. Almost 3 Million cases reported by Jan 19 and half a million additional in just one week. At the time of the report deaths were approaching 300. I'm not downplaying the dangers of COVID-19 but the only difference in scale (the flu was worse) is mostly in the response to the outbreak.
With this kind of logic don't you think it's strange that the country didn't go into quarantine in January? The Northern part of Italy is now begging the government to shut down public transportation and all shops and stores that are non-essential. I've seen doctors and nurses crying on TV and begging people to stay home and follow government guidelines. If you feel better believing that this is just a flu then good for you.
For people that want to slow the progression of the virus: no non-essential travel (yes, cancel those vacations), stay away from crowded places, if you go out, wash your hands as soon as you enter your home, keep a distance when meeting and greeting people, avoid touching people, be sensible, do what you need to and look around and see if you can help elderly or infirm by shopping for them and keeping in touch by phone so they don't feel abandoned.
This will pass, but please don't tell people that it's "just the flu" and go about business as usual. I've seen what happens when you do that. Stay safe people.
It's not "just the flu," however I am concerned the responses are promoting panic over preparedness.
In the US this so far this flu season:- 34 million illnesses
- 350,000 hospitalizations
- 20,000 deaths
Realistically, we should (all) exercise more caution during flu season. And if this is how we get there, I am happy for the increased awareness of how easily viruses can be passed. However, where we should be promoting calm and rationality, as well as respect for our more vulnerable citizens, I instead see panic. Such as the doctors and nurses crying on TV mentioned above. How does health officials panic-sobbing help keep citizens calm and following procedures meant to help keep everyone safe? It seems akin to yelling fire in a crowded theater instead of asking folks to get up and quickly proceed to the nearest exit.
I feel like you don’t get what’s happening in Italy right now. Doctors are having to decide who lives and who to just let die because there isn’t enough equipment to go around. One specific example I was given - two otherwise healthy 40 year olds need to be on a respirator, only one respirator, so since one of the 40 year olds has two kids, he gets to keep breathing and the other guy doesn’t. Crying about having to watch people in your care die without helping them is not “panic sobbing,” it’s called grief.40 -
Md schools are being closed starting Monday the 16th..
Eta
First community spread found in the county I work in..2 -
Love cattening the curve, Ann.9
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My family has vacation plans for the end of May, which I've already paid for. I think we'll still be okay for it - hopefully, things will have evened out by then, and the vacation is at a secluded cabin in a state park making it very easy to isolate ourselves as long as we took the time to extensively clean upon our arrival.
Food for thought:
I was sitting at the piano in our church service last night, looking over the auditorium and thinking about the membership of our church in light of the coronavirus. Back in January we had some kind of bug, flu or something, run through the church like wildfire. I'd say a good 1/3 of our congregation ended up with it and as many as 5 or 6 ended up hospitalized because of it. No one perished. I can't think of anyone in the last 40 years that I've gone to this church who died from the flu.
For ease of head-math, I estimated our typical Sunday Morning service to have about 100 people. At the rate this thing is going, 50-70 of those people will catch this thing, 20 will wind up hospitalized, and 3-4 will actually die. Knowing that my church's population is heavily elderly and we have several members with lung issues, that death toll could be higher than that.
It was very sobering when I stopped to think about having 3-4 funerals or more at the church in a single month's time frame. We've been losing our elderly members over the last couple of years at as many as 6 a year, but 6 in a single month is not something I'd want to see, especially as our church family is rather close.
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