Coronavirus prep
Replies
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T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »cmriverside wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »cmriverside wrote: »This is a good article that hits all the high points...no pun intended, but it also explains the Flattening of the Curve and why it's important and why things are being done the way they are (with closings and travel bans etc.)
Herd Immunity is a BIG deal...and that's what we have with the seasonal flu, plus we have widespread vaccine use for the seasonal flu. Yes, a lot of people die of the regular flu, but they don't all present at hospitals in a one-month period of time, and they do present at a fairly predictable rate and it's not half the population needing medical help all at the same time.
I haven't gotten any flu in decades, but I do get a flu shot every year. I am careful and I am healthy but I have herd immunity to partially thank for that.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine
Specifically about flattening the curve:
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation
Is there any idea of what that time frame looks like in the graph? All I see right now is that things are getting cancelled and postponed indefinitely into the future. If there was a known effective time frame (it look like there is, but the chart isn't marked), then that would ease some concerns. I, for one, would be unhappy if everything is getting cancelled for the "this year and next."
That graph is from the CDC.
The first article specifically delves into, "How Does This End?" - https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine
Since this is a New Approach (social distancing/mass closings) we've not tried before with novel viruses, I think your guess is as good as mine.
Sounds like it really isn't known or predicted. I'm not suggesting an end to the virus. In fact, I can see that it becomes a thing that goes around indefinitely like the common cold. I am hoping there is a timeline soon about how long everything gets canceled before the "Flattening of the Curve" is complete and we can start going on with our normal lives again. I'm not concerned about the virus, but I am concerned about the results from panic and uncertainty of indefinite postponement and impending cancellation of events.
It seems like (to me) that the closures and cancellations will be short-term...otherwise the costs will be too great.
I mean, it worked pretty well in China if you believe their current new infection rates.
I'm cautiously optimistic that this will shock those of us who were not taking this seriously (enough) and at the same time slow this little virus down. I think you'd like that article I linked.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xylospongium
Ancient Rome didn’t have toilet paper 🧻 but they did have shared public toilets 🚽 (cheek to cheek not your face) with a shared sponge 🧽 on a stick to wipe. Yuck 🤢
Xylospongium they were called.
Daughter reminded me about it. Lol 😂 Told her we have enough paper items to rags we won’t get that gross again lol .4 -
Ann.
Awesome.0 -
snowflake954 wrote: »jseams1234 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »extra_medium wrote: »Italy in bad shape. Over 600 dead and over 10k active cases. Hospitals stopped all operations / procedures and overflowing caring for covid patients. Bad scene! We need to be vigilant and people need to stop poo pooing claiming it's just no worse than a regular flu blah blah it is killing people globally.
The regular flu kills people globally
We have the regular flu every year in Italy--it's not on this scale.
https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week
This was 2019/2020. Almost 3 Million cases reported by Jan 19 and half a million additional in just one week. At the time of the report deaths were approaching 300. I'm not downplaying the dangers of COVID-19 but the only difference in scale (the flu was worse) is mostly in the response to the outbreak.
With this kind of logic don't you think it's strange that the country didn't go into quarantine in January? The Northern part of Italy is now begging the government to shut down public transportation and all shops and stores that are non-essential. I've seen doctors and nurses crying on TV and begging people to stay home and follow government guidelines. If you feel better believing that this is just a flu then good for you.
For people that want to slow the progression of the virus: no non-essential travel (yes, cancel those vacations), stay away from crowded places, if you go out, wash your hands as soon as you enter your home, keep a distance when meeting and greeting people, avoid touching people, be sensible, do what you need to and look around and see if you can help elderly or infirm by shopping for them and keeping in touch by phone so they don't feel abandoned.
This will pass, but please don't tell people that it's "just the flu" and go about business as usual. I've seen what happens when you do that. Stay safe people.
It's not "just the flu," however I am concerned the responses are promoting panic over preparedness.
In the US this so far this flu season:- 34 million illnesses
- 350,000 hospitalizations
- 20,000 deaths
Realistically, we should (all) exercise more caution during flu season. And if this is how we get there, I am happy for the increased awareness of how easily viruses can be passed. However, where we should be promoting calm and rationality, as well as respect for our more vulnerable citizens, I instead see panic. Such as the doctors and nurses crying on TV mentioned above. How does health officials panic-sobbing help keep citizens calm and following procedures meant to help keep everyone safe? It seems akin to yelling fire in a crowded theater instead of asking folks to get up and quickly proceed to the nearest exit.
You don't know the Italians. They are not used to pulling together as a people for various historical reasons that I won't go into here. They are however, extremely generous and loving. If you can persuade them that there is great suffering they will do whatever they can to help. I am seeing them working together now as never before. They are seriously going to stop this. I hope my fellow Americans will do the same. If buying hoards of TP will get them moving in the right direction--so be it.14 -
Spot the oopsie in this capture of this BBC video (the yellow text is mine)
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Did anyone who watched Trump’s address tonite from the Oval Office on coronavirus think he seemed a little wheezy? He was with people a day or two ago that have tested positive for the virus.
He is always wheezy when he reads from a teleprompter, but last night he was like a robot, besides other things....2 -
snowflake954 wrote: »jseams1234 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »extra_medium wrote: »Italy in bad shape. Over 600 dead and over 10k active cases. Hospitals stopped all operations / procedures and overflowing caring for covid patients. Bad scene! We need to be vigilant and people need to stop poo pooing claiming it's just no worse than a regular flu blah blah it is killing people globally.
The regular flu kills people globally
We have the regular flu every year in Italy--it's not on this scale.
https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week
This was 2019/2020. Almost 3 Million cases reported by Jan 19 and half a million additional in just one week. At the time of the report deaths were approaching 300. I'm not downplaying the dangers of COVID-19 but the only difference in scale (the flu was worse) is mostly in the response to the outbreak.
With this kind of logic don't you think it's strange that the country didn't go into quarantine in January? The Northern part of Italy is now begging the government to shut down public transportation and all shops and stores that are non-essential. I've seen doctors and nurses crying on TV and begging people to stay home and follow government guidelines. If you feel better believing that this is just a flu then good for you.
For people that want to slow the progression of the virus: no non-essential travel (yes, cancel those vacations), stay away from crowded places, if you go out, wash your hands as soon as you enter your home, keep a distance when meeting and greeting people, avoid touching people, be sensible, do what you need to and look around and see if you can help elderly or infirm by shopping for them and keeping in touch by phone so they don't feel abandoned.
This will pass, but please don't tell people that it's "just the flu" and go about business as usual. I've seen what happens when you do that. Stay safe people.
It's not "just the flu," however I am concerned the responses are promoting panic over preparedness.
In the US this so far this flu season:- 34 million illnesses
- 350,000 hospitalizations
- 20,000 deaths
Realistically, we should (all) exercise more caution during flu season. And if this is how we get there, I am happy for the increased awareness of how easily viruses can be passed. However, where we should be promoting calm and rationality, as well as respect for our more vulnerable citizens, I instead see panic. Such as the doctors and nurses crying on TV mentioned above. How does health officials panic-sobbing help keep citizens calm and following procedures meant to help keep everyone safe? It seems akin to yelling fire in a crowded theater instead of asking folks to get up and quickly proceed to the nearest exit.
I feel like you don’t get what’s happening in Italy right now. Doctors are having to decide who lives and who to just let die because there isn’t enough equipment to go around. One specific example I was given - two otherwise healthy 40 year olds need to be on a respirator, only one respirator, so since one of the 40 year olds has two kids, he gets to keep breathing and the other guy doesn’t. Crying about having to watch people in your care die without helping them is not “panic sobbing,” it’s called grief.40 -
Md schools are being closed starting Monday the 16th..
Eta
First community spread found in the county I work in..2 -
Love cattening the curve, Ann.9
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My family has vacation plans for the end of May, which I've already paid for. I think we'll still be okay for it - hopefully, things will have evened out by then, and the vacation is at a secluded cabin in a state park making it very easy to isolate ourselves as long as we took the time to extensively clean upon our arrival.
Food for thought:
I was sitting at the piano in our church service last night, looking over the auditorium and thinking about the membership of our church in light of the coronavirus. Back in January we had some kind of bug, flu or something, run through the church like wildfire. I'd say a good 1/3 of our congregation ended up with it and as many as 5 or 6 ended up hospitalized because of it. No one perished. I can't think of anyone in the last 40 years that I've gone to this church who died from the flu.
For ease of head-math, I estimated our typical Sunday Morning service to have about 100 people. At the rate this thing is going, 50-70 of those people will catch this thing, 20 will wind up hospitalized, and 3-4 will actually die. Knowing that my church's population is heavily elderly and we have several members with lung issues, that death toll could be higher than that.
It was very sobering when I stopped to think about having 3-4 funerals or more at the church in a single month's time frame. We've been losing our elderly members over the last couple of years at as many as 6 a year, but 6 in a single month is not something I'd want to see, especially as our church family is rather close.
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CupcakeCrusoe wrote: »Welp, over here in coastal VA, I think I'm going to go to the grocery store and stock up before the weekend hits.
I actually do need more TP at this time, and it wouldn't hurt to pick up some more canned and dry goods. My hurricane prep stuff is super low. I also need a ton of baby snacks, chicken, eggs, cereal to keep the four year old happy. And I ordered more protein bars online today. Ooh, and Whatsisface's favorite soda.
Update with TP status:
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rheddmobile wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »jseams1234 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »extra_medium wrote: »Italy in bad shape. Over 600 dead and over 10k active cases. Hospitals stopped all operations / procedures and overflowing caring for covid patients. Bad scene! We need to be vigilant and people need to stop poo pooing claiming it's just no worse than a regular flu blah blah it is killing people globally.
The regular flu kills people globally
We have the regular flu every year in Italy--it's not on this scale.
https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week
This was 2019/2020. Almost 3 Million cases reported by Jan 19 and half a million additional in just one week. At the time of the report deaths were approaching 300. I'm not downplaying the dangers of COVID-19 but the only difference in scale (the flu was worse) is mostly in the response to the outbreak.
With this kind of logic don't you think it's strange that the country didn't go into quarantine in January? The Northern part of Italy is now begging the government to shut down public transportation and all shops and stores that are non-essential. I've seen doctors and nurses crying on TV and begging people to stay home and follow government guidelines. If you feel better believing that this is just a flu then good for you.
For people that want to slow the progression of the virus: no non-essential travel (yes, cancel those vacations), stay away from crowded places, if you go out, wash your hands as soon as you enter your home, keep a distance when meeting and greeting people, avoid touching people, be sensible, do what you need to and look around and see if you can help elderly or infirm by shopping for them and keeping in touch by phone so they don't feel abandoned.
This will pass, but please don't tell people that it's "just the flu" and go about business as usual. I've seen what happens when you do that. Stay safe people.
It's not "just the flu," however I am concerned the responses are promoting panic over preparedness.
In the US this so far this flu season:- 34 million illnesses
- 350,000 hospitalizations
- 20,000 deaths
Realistically, we should (all) exercise more caution during flu season. And if this is how we get there, I am happy for the increased awareness of how easily viruses can be passed. However, where we should be promoting calm and rationality, as well as respect for our more vulnerable citizens, I instead see panic. Such as the doctors and nurses crying on TV mentioned above. How does health officials panic-sobbing help keep citizens calm and following procedures meant to help keep everyone safe? It seems akin to yelling fire in a crowded theater instead of asking folks to get up and quickly proceed to the nearest exit.
I feel like you don’t get what’s happening in Italy right now. Doctors are having to decide who lives and who to just let die because there isn’t enough equipment to go around. One specific example I was given - two otherwise healthy 40 year olds need to be on a respirator, only one respirator, so since one of the 40 year olds has two kids, he gets to keep breathing and the other guy doesn’t. Crying about having to watch people in your care die without helping them is not “panic sobbing,” it’s called grief.
Honestly, if a health care professional wasn't gutted in that situation, I wouldn't trust them to care for me or my family. I know some nurses and doctors and I think they'd all feel intensely if they were in the shoes of those people.20 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »cmriverside wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »cmriverside wrote: »This is a good article that hits all the high points...no pun intended, but it also explains the Flattening of the Curve and why it's important and why things are being done the way they are (with closings and travel bans etc.)
Herd Immunity is a BIG deal...and that's what we have with the seasonal flu, plus we have widespread vaccine use for the seasonal flu. Yes, a lot of people die of the regular flu, but they don't all present at hospitals in a one-month period of time, and they do present at a fairly predictable rate and it's not half the population needing medical help all at the same time.
I haven't gotten any flu in decades, but I do get a flu shot every year. I am careful and I am healthy but I have herd immunity to partially thank for that.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine
Specifically about flattening the curve:
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation
Is there any idea of what that time frame looks like in the graph? All I see right now is that things are getting cancelled and postponed indefinitely into the future. If there was a known effective time frame (it look like there is, but the chart isn't marked), then that would ease some concerns. I, for one, would be unhappy if everything is getting cancelled for the "this year and next."
That graph is from the CDC.
The first article specifically delves into, "How Does This End?" - https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine
Since this is a New Approach (social distancing/mass closings) we've not tried before with novel viruses, I think your guess is as good as mine.
Sounds like it really isn't known or predicted. I'm not suggesting an end to the virus. In fact, I can see that it becomes a thing that goes around indefinitely like the common cold. I am hoping there is a timeline soon about how long everything gets canceled before the "Flattening of the Curve" is complete and we can start going on with our normal lives again. I'm not concerned about the virus, but I am concerned about the results from panic and uncertainty of indefinite postponement and impending cancellation of events.
Social distancing measure are reducing numbers in China and South Korea...In the US, these measures have started to be put in place way before the numbers reached the level they were in China and Italy (South Korea has had the best response).
It will likely be a thing that goes around like the flu or the cold...but it will also be something for which we will build up herd immunity and vaccinations will ultimately be a thing which will make it more manageable going forward as the speed at which it spreads will slow, allowing the health care system to be able to keep up with it.7 -
@earlnabby Having an issue isolating the quote, but your comment made me think of this:
https://www.wdrb.com/news/national/the-psychology-behind-why-toilet-paper-of-all-things-is/article_277db5d4-6255-11ea-a9a5-cb183ea659db.html
That was interesting. Still didn't answer the question of why toilet paper. This is not a new thing as those of us who live in the frozen north know well.0 -
Big 10 college sports conference is "canceling all conference and non-conference competitions through the end of the academic year, including spring sports that compete beyond the academic year, and participation in all NCAA tournaments and competitions. In addition, the Conference has announced a moratorium on all on- and off-campus recruiting activities for the foreseeable future."
https://bigten.org/news/2020/3/12/big-ten-statement.aspx1 -
Maryland has cancelled all public schools1
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After everything that has happened in the past few days, how are there still people with their heads so far in the sand that they still think this isn't a big deal?
No, you don't need to panic, but it is highly advisable to prepare for the very real possibility of social distancing measures and quarantines.
FFS.24 -
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my dad went back to the hospital yesterday. treatment stopped working, breathing trouble started back up, had to get another nebulizer and stronger pneumonia medicine. he specifically asked the doctor to test him for covid19. doctor told him he couldn't test him because he "didn't qualify." a few minutes later after the doctor leaves a nurse comes in and says that the doctor's lying, they just don't have any test kits. this isn't some backwater clinic, this is a major university hospital we're talking about here, and they have zero way of testing for this thing even if they wanted to. i visited him last weekend after they told him he had a non-contagious infection, and about five days later, surprise! i'm feeling feverish. great healthcare system we got going here.40
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@earlnabby Having an issue isolating the quote, but your comment made me think of this:
https://www.wdrb.com/news/national/the-psychology-behind-why-toilet-paper-of-all-things-is/article_277db5d4-6255-11ea-a9a5-cb183ea659db.html
That was interesting. Still didn't answer the question of why toilet paper. This is not a new thing as those of us who live in the frozen north know well.
I just figure it's one of those things that separates us from the animals. I think somebody else mentioned that early on in the thread... it's the mark of civilized society. 
3
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