Coronavirus prep

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  • MaggieGirl135
    MaggieGirl135 Posts: 648 Member
    P.S. It was still was an excellent financial move for us—hard to believe!
  • lynn_glenmont
    lynn_glenmont Posts: 9,425 Member
    Inflation is happening in every area and it is mostly because of what the Federal government did with handing out lots of cash. So now inflation is the highest it has been in 40 years... At levels that most of us have not seen in our lifetimes (assume everyone under 50 is too young to remember inflation 40 years ago, that is about 2/3 of the U.S. population).

    The cause is a quick increase in money supply and the solution will be to decrease money supply... This means interest rates are about to skyrocket.

    I remember. Interest rates were 10% when we bought our home in 1987. There are plenty of us that remember. It’s one of the reasons Reagan got elected. Don’t discount the seniors. There’s a lot of us, and the number is growing.

    Maybe in quantum physics an event can cause an earlier event, but in the macro world where political events occur, inflation rates in 1987 seem like a very dubious cause of events in 1984, 1980, and whatever earlier years Reagan was elected governor of California and president of the Screen Actors Guild.
  • T1DCarnivoreRunner
    T1DCarnivoreRunner Posts: 11,462 Member
    Inflation is happening in every area and it is mostly because of what the Federal government did with handing out lots of cash. So now inflation is the highest it has been in 40 years... At levels that most of us have not seen in our lifetimes (assume everyone under 50 is too young to remember inflation 40 years ago, that is about 2/3 of the U.S. population).

    The cause is a quick increase in money supply and the solution will be to decrease money supply... This means interest rates are about to skyrocket.

    I remember. Interest rates were 10% when we bought our home in 1987. There are plenty of us that remember. It’s one of the reasons Reagan got elected. Don’t discount the seniors. There’s a lot of us, and the number is growing.

    Maybe in quantum physics an event can cause an earlier event, but in the macro world where political events occur, inflation rates in 1987 seem like a very dubious cause of events in 1984, 1980, and whatever earlier years Reagan was elected governor of California and president of the Screen Actors Guild.

    I think the point made was that Reagan was elected so that he would raise interest rates. Ridiculously high inflation began under Ford. Carter didn't solve it, so Reagan was elected with the idea that he would solve the inflation problem. He tried to do that by raising interest rates, though he also reduced taxes to offset this. That increased money supply primarily to high income earners while using interest rates to bring that money back in from borrowers. The increased money supply to wealthy people had little impact because this economic group often just hoarded money, so most of it truly never got into the economy.
  • SModa61
    SModa61 Posts: 2,090 Member
    on interest rates, SIL's first house (roughly 1980) had a mortgage rate upwards of 16%. My husband remembers this because he celebrated when we did our first mortgage in 1983 and got a rate of "only" 11 or 12%.
  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,870 Member
    edited February 14
    Inflation is happening in every area and it is mostly because of what the Federal government did with handing out lots of cash. So now inflation is the highest it has been in 40 years... At levels that most of us have not seen in our lifetimes (assume everyone under 50 is too young to remember inflation 40 years ago, that is about 2/3 of the U.S. population).

    The cause is a quick increase in money supply and the solution will be to decrease money supply... This means interest rates are about to skyrocket.

    I remember. Interest rates were 10% when we bought our home in 1987. There are plenty of us that remember. It’s one of the reasons Reagan got elected. Don’t discount the seniors. There’s a lot of us, and the number is growing.

    Maybe in quantum physics an event can cause an earlier event, but in the macro world where political events occur, inflation rates in 1987 seem like a very dubious cause of events in 1984, 1980, and whatever earlier years Reagan was elected governor of California and president of the Screen Actors Guild.

    It seemed pretty clear that she was saying she recalls inflation being high, gave the high interest rate of the home she bought in '87 as one example of herself being old enough to recall the general period and some of the effects, and then said that "it" (inflation) was one of the reasons Reagan got elected -- which I think is generally believed to be true, inflation was high when he got elected in '80, although there were of course other reasons and high inflation obviously did not start with Carter (stagflation was an issue in the Ford administration, for example, and part of that was high inflation). Certainly there was a general view that the economy was bad when Reagan got elected (I recall this and I was a kid), and Reagan+Volcker (one could give more credit to Volcker) followed tight monetary policies to kick the inflation leading to a recession in the early '80s. I think the economy was perceived to be pretty good by '87, though (and thus the reelection of Reagan -- and, yes, I realize that happened in '84, which is before '87), although I also recall interest rates being much higher than what we have now had for quite a while for a longer period of time, Black Monday (1987) freaking people out and of course there was another recession in the early '90s.

    History of mortgage rates: https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/historical-mortgage-rates-30-year-fixed. Looks very consistent with SModa's memory.

    All that aside, and back to covid, I think it's impossible to tell to what extent inflation is based on underlying economic conditions when there is still as much supply chain disruption as there has been.
  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,870 Member
    edited February 14
    Inflation is happening in every area and it is mostly because of what the Federal government did with handing out lots of cash. So now inflation is the highest it has been in 40 years... At levels that most of us have not seen in our lifetimes (assume everyone under 50 is too young to remember inflation 40 years ago, that is about 2/3 of the U.S. population).

    The cause is a quick increase in money supply and the solution will be to decrease money supply... This means interest rates are about to skyrocket.

    I remember. Interest rates were 10% when we bought our home in 1987. There are plenty of us that remember. It’s one of the reasons Reagan got elected. Don’t discount the seniors. There’s a lot of us, and the number is growing.

    Maybe in quantum physics an event can cause an earlier event, but in the macro world where political events occur, inflation rates in 1987 seem like a very dubious cause of events in 1984, 1980, and whatever earlier years Reagan was elected governor of California and president of the Screen Actors Guild.

    I think the point made was that Reagan was elected so that he would raise interest rates. Ridiculously high inflation began under Ford. Carter didn't solve it, so Reagan was elected with the idea that he would solve the inflation problem. He tried to do that by raising interest rates, though he also reduced taxes to offset this. That increased money supply primarily to high income earners while using interest rates to bring that money back in from borrowers. The increased money supply to wealthy people had little impact because this economic group often just hoarded money, so most of it truly never got into the economy.

    Agreed that the point was clearly that Reagan was elected bc of the perceived issues with the economy (in part) and that the post was of course not meant to say that Reagan was elected due to interest rates in '87.

    Reagan didn't raise rates, Volcker (the Fed) raised rates (and mortgage rates were already high when Reagan was elected, although they got even higher). Carter actually appointed Volcker. I generally agree that Reagan was elected because Carter looked ineffectual given the economy continuing to be bad plus the Iran hostage crisis, and because the person in office tends to be punished when the economy is bad (and rewarded when it's good) even though one could reasonably argue that the president isn't really that much in control of the economy (there are certain fixes one can try and one probably shouldn't squander them at the wrong time, I would also argue). I don't think the electorate was thinking "let's elect Reagan to increase interest rates."
  • missysippy930
    missysippy930 Posts: 2,547 Member
    edited February 14
    Yesterday, I think it was on Face the Nation but may have been CBS Sunday Morning news they were talking about the rise in cost of goods. What stuck with me, was the 40% increase in new car prices. That’s putting an awful lot of people out of the market for buying a new car.


    Btw, interest rates were high before Reagan and after his presidency, as well. We would have been ecstatic to have interest rates as low as they are now, back then.1979 President carter had a bad last year by any standard. Any idea what a difference that makes in your monthly house payment?
  • cwolfman13
    cwolfman13 Posts: 40,859 Member
    Yesterday, I think it was on Face the Nation but may have been CBS Sunday Morning news they were talking about the rise in cost of goods. What stuck with me, was the 40% increase in new car prices. That’s putting an awful lot of people out of the market for buying a new car.

    It's almost impossible to even find a new car on a lot due to the supply chain issues and chip shortage...or at least the vehicle you actually want. You pretty much have to order the vehicle at this point and just wait for months for it to come in. About 90% or more of what is sitting on a car lot these days is used car inventory.

    A couple months ago we had to take a look around as my wife was in an accident and hit pretty hard. I was pretty damned sure the vehicle would be totaled and in normal circumstances it would have been. While we were waiting for the adjuster to give us the news we started doing some shopping, and it's pretty much nothing out there. Not to mention we have to have a vehicle that can tow...not huge capacity, but decent towing capacity so we couldn't just buy some random vehicle. It ended up not being totaled due to the current car market...as extensive as the damage was it was cheaper to fix it than pay us out the % of what the vehicle was worth in the current market.
  • lynn_glenmont
    lynn_glenmont Posts: 9,425 Member
    Inflation is happening in every area and it is mostly because of what the Federal government did with handing out lots of cash. So now inflation is the highest it has been in 40 years... At levels that most of us have not seen in our lifetimes (assume everyone under 50 is too young to remember inflation 40 years ago, that is about 2/3 of the U.S. population).

    The cause is a quick increase in money supply and the solution will be to decrease money supply... This means interest rates are about to skyrocket.

    I remember. Interest rates were 10% when we bought our home in 1987. There are plenty of us that remember. It’s one of the reasons Reagan got elected. Don’t discount the seniors. There’s a lot of us, and the number is growing.

    Maybe in quantum physics an event can cause an earlier event, but in the macro world where political events occur, inflation rates in 1987 seem like a very dubious cause of events in 1984, 1980, and whatever earlier years Reagan was elected governor of California and president of the Screen Actors Guild.

    I think the point made was that Reagan was elected so that he would raise interest rates. Ridiculously high inflation began under Ford. Carter didn't solve it, so Reagan was elected with the idea that he would solve the inflation problem. He tried to do that by raising interest rates, though he also reduced taxes to offset this. That increased money supply primarily to high income earners while using interest rates to bring that money back in from borrowers. The increased money supply to wealthy people had little impact because this economic group often just hoarded money, so most of it truly never got into the economy.

    Ah, I didn't read it that way. Thanks.
  • lynn_glenmont
    lynn_glenmont Posts: 9,425 Member
    Theoldguy1 wrote: »
    Inflation is happening in every area and it is mostly because of what the Federal government did with handing out lots of cash. So now inflation is the highest it has been in 40 years... At levels that most of us have not seen in our lifetimes (assume everyone under 50 is too young to remember inflation 40 years ago, that is about 2/3 of the U.S. population).

    The cause is a quick increase in money supply and the solution will be to decrease money supply... This means interest rates are about to skyrocket.

    I remember. Interest rates were 10% when we bought our home in 1987. There are plenty of us that remember. It’s one of the reasons Reagan got elected. Don’t discount the seniors. There’s a lot of us, and the number is growing.

    Yes, and the reason interest rates had to be raised was because of the high level of inflation. Raising interest rates is the fix. Unfortunately, I am in the process of building a new house... I am trying to lock in my rate soon.

    The part that really bugs me is that I am single and childfree. I received very little of the money that the Fed printed in order to hand out. Despite that I didn't share in much of the benefits that led to hyper inflation, I will have to pay for the solution. Yet again, money is taken from me to benefit people with kids.
    Kids grow up and become part of the world you live in - some of those kids might grow up to operate on you or build your house, some might grow up to rob you in a dark alley. Benefiting kids benefits you even if you don’t have kids. I say that as a childfree person myself, btw.

    The primary cause of climate change is overpopulation, and the most effective solution for climate change is to have fewer children. Individual person's may be good or bad for society, but additional population overall will destroy us. The government shouldn't reward reproduction and punish those of us doing the right thing.

    Sounds like someone should be moving to China ASAP.

    Actually, China has reversed its population policy and is now encouraging more than one child per family.
  • AnnPT77
    AnnPT77 Posts: 24,759 Member
    Yesterday, I think it was on Face the Nation but may have been CBS Sunday Morning news they were talking about the rise in cost of goods. What stuck with me, was the 40% increase in new car prices. That’s putting an awful lot of people out of the market for buying a new car.


    Btw, interest rates were high before Reagan and after his presidency, as well. We would have been ecstatic to have interest rates as low as they are now, back then.1979 President carter had a bad last year by any standard. Any idea what a difference that makes in your monthly house payment?

    From what I'd heard, it was used car prices up by 40% in a year, new car prices up more like 13%. Other mainstream sources seem consistent with this one:

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2022/02/13/used-cars-cost-more/6778705001/

    Not that that's a great thing, in any way.
  • redfish8
    redfish8 Posts: 2 Member
    Actually, China has reversed its population policy and is now encouraging more than one child per family.
    Yes, they are now "allowing" 2 children per family. However, forced abortion is still the method used by the State for those parents who are found to be pregnant with a 3rd child. This is confirmed by people who have fled China.
  • Theoldguy1
    Theoldguy1 Posts: 2,270 Member
    edited February 14
    Yesterday, I think it was on Face the Nation but may have been CBS Sunday Morning news they were talking about the rise in cost of goods. What stuck with me, was the 40% increase in new car prices. That’s putting an awful lot of people out of the market for buying a new car.


    Btw, interest rates were high before Reagan and after his presidency, as well. We would have been ecstatic to have interest rates as low as they are now, back then.1979 President carter had a bad last year by any standard. Any idea what a difference that makes in your monthly house payment?

    Used car prices are up the 40%, new cars around 15% based on average transaction price. Some of the new car increase due to price increases/sales above MSRP but also the mix has changed. Manufacturers are using the available chips in high priced, high margin vehicles rather than using the same chip in vehicles that don't command as high of a price. Why use a scarce chip in a $25k Corolla when you can use it in an $80k Tundra?