Why is my weight loss projection going up?

courtneycoble77
courtneycoble77 Posts: 16 Member
in Food and Nutrition
I’ve been clicking on complete on my food diary and for the past two days it’s gone up in weight for my projected weight loss and I’ve eaten almost the exact amount of calories and my macros are even right. I don’t understand?
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Replies

  • yirara
    yirara Posts: 9,985 Member
    This function is notoriously bad because basically no day is ever like the previous. Are you weighing yourself every day at the same time and are you adding your weight? Did you do some exercise before the projection went up and did you not eat back the exercise calories? (on this website you should eat them back, at least in part)
  • courtneycoble77
    courtneycoble77 Posts: 16 Member
    Yes I’m exercising every day. I’ve been doing taebo twice a day for 20 min at a time every day for 3 weeks and eating my daily calories and protein and everything and the weight is barely coming off. No I don’t eat back the calories I burned. That’s the point of burning them is to lose and I’m not, I’m so frustrated. And yes I’m logging everything that goes in my mouth
  • Rockmama1111
    Rockmama1111 Posts: 262 Member
    From what I understand, that projection is calculated off of your net calories for that day subtracted from what MFP calculated that you need for the day based on your weight. My best guess is that you burned fewer calories those days than you have previously.

    My Fitbit is synced to MFP, and I’ve noticed that two different 10,000 step days can earn me very different extra calories on MFP (it depends on exertion). So, for example, I might eat 1500 calories, but one day my automatic step calculation leaves me with 1200 net, and the next day I might have 1100 net.

    That said, that “Complete” button is really just for fun. I use it to check myself when I have a big calorie day.
  • Retroguy2000
    Retroguy2000 Posts: 1,868 Member
    Never click Complete Diary. I never have.
  • westrich20940
    westrich20940 Posts: 921 Member
    Another suggestion to not 'complete' your diary or disregard that little note all together if you do. It isn't really useful.
  • AnnPT77
    AnnPT77 Posts: 34,598 Member
    Yeah, the projection is mostly dumb. No one does the exact same things every day for 5 weeks, not even possible. And even then, it'd only be right if you were exactly statistically average, since it's all based on estimates that use population averages.

    Pay more attention to your weight trend over 4-6 weeks (whole menstrual cycles if that applies to you), little attention to day to day scale changes, and even less attention to the 5 week projection.

    If you haven't, read this thread:

    https://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/10683010/the-weird-and-highly-annoying-world-of-scale-fluctuations/p1

    Especially read the article linked in the initial post on that thread.

    When it comes to the 5-week projection, you'll tend to see a projection of less weight loss on a day with less exercise than on a day with more exercise if you don't eat any exercise calories back; but if you eat some back, it will matter how many you did/didn't eat. If you record a new weight in MFP, that also affects the projection. It's dumb.

    Don't worry about dumb statistically-estimated projections. Focus on actual trends in your body weight over many weeks.

  • courtneycoble77
    courtneycoble77 Posts: 16 Member
    Yeah I’m going to stop doing complete diary. I know that it’s just an estimate but I just couldn’t figure out why the projection was going up when I’m eating my calories and working out and logging it all. My projection was like 215 in 5 weeks and then it went up to like 220 over a few days and I was like what?
  • yirara
    yirara Posts: 9,985 Member
    5lbs at your weight is nothing. This could easily come from you being a bit heavier due to water retention, or from not eating back your exercise calories.
  • springlering62
    springlering62 Posts: 8,662 Member
    I’m confused. On your other thread, you indicated you were going to purposely slow down the too-fast weight loss.

    Stop obsessing over scales and numbers.

    Relax.

    As long as you stick to plan, loss will happen. You can’t beat your body into submission.

    I’m also going to guess that the 2x day taibo is new to you. If you’re sore from those new workouts, you’re going to retain water as you body figures out why where and how to repair the unfamiliar
    Muscle soreness.

    I get it. Initial fast weight loss is EXCITING! We’ve all thought “OMG at this rate I’ll be there in a couple of months! Woohoo!”

    It just doesn’t work like that but I can sincerely promise you that six years r twelve months will blow by way faster than you think, and will give you time to develop habits so your not among the 80% who put it back on within a year or two.

    Don’t be “that” person. Plan and execute.
  • arljduke
    arljduke Posts: 3 Member
    Do you think your calorie goal might be too low? It’s strange but sometimes eating more calories can trigger more weight loss. I wonder if you have been cutting so long your metabolism has dropped. Just something to think about. I don’t know how many calories you’re eating so this could be way off.
  • djt10_99
    djt10_99 Posts: 1 Member
    edited April 2023
    courtneycoble77 wrote: »
    Yeah I’m going to stop doing complete diary. I know that it’s just an estimate but I just couldn’t figure out why the projection was going up when I’m eating my calories and working out and logging it all. My projection was like 215 in 5 weeks and then it went up to like 220 over a few days and I was like what?

    Exercise, especially at the beginning, tears muscles which causes inflammation (in this case, not a bad word) as well as storing glycogen. Both of these things will make your body hold on to more water. It's not unusual to gain weight, even in a calorie deficit because of this new water weight. This is a good thing though. Your body comp (and overall health) will change for the better and your fat % should still be going down (which is the goal anyway). The good thing is that the water weight won't keep coming on. So once your body adjusts, the numbers on the scales should start to go down again.

    Trust the process and you should see results. It just takes time.
  • courtneycoble77
    courtneycoble77 Posts: 16 Member
    I’m confused. On your other thread, you indicated you were going to purposely slow down the too-fast weight loss.

    Stop obsessing over scales and numbers.

    Relax.

    Idk how to comment on one person’s post but I posted this thread and the one about not losing the same day. I haven’t posted anything else. I just wanted to clarify since you were confused

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